Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Fall/Into Winter!

[swva]

Lake effect events are never considered historic before they happen. Last November certainty wasn't. It was 1-2 feet of snow forecasted with isolated 3 foot totals. I've never seen a les event forecasted to be historic before it becoming a now cast event. Has anyone else seen this?

I'm not 100% sure but I think Feb 2007 was predicted to be historic. Seemed like a slam dunk with warm lakes and extremely cold air with persistent westerly flow off Ontario. I think Redfield was over 100" for that one.

[lakeeffectkid383]

I'm not 100% sure but I think Feb 2007 was predicted to be historic. Seemed like a slam dunk with warm lakes and extremely cold air with persistent westerly flow off Ontario. I think Redfield was over 100" for that one.

quite a bit over 100" actually, I believe it was over 140" but the event was like 10 days long. Rich, you do have a valid point though, most historic events are not forecasted to be the magnitude that they are when they actually happen. Would be great if this was one of those times and you cash in with 5-6' + and someone off the Tug grabs 10 feet in 5 days

[WNash]

Dang, we are spoiled up here. I've seen 2" of snow in 2015-16, folks in Hamburg have had maybe a foot and a half, and we're spoiling for some off the charts LES event? A widespread foot with a jackpot of two feet would just get us going towards not setting a record minimum this year.

[Buffalo Bumble]

I agree but I think most locations in Upstate NY can handle a few feet of snow over the course of 5 days to a week without too much disruption. Not trying to take away from the event, cause who wouldn't want a few feet of snow, but just doesn't look to be one of the historic magnitude that was looking possible a few days ago. Watches go up this afternoon though, bank on it.

 

Seems early to me...I don't see any defined lake effect kicking in until Monday afternoon at the earliest as it will take some time for winds to align after the weekend storm passes.  Earliest we see watches IMO would be Sunday AM.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see an advisory posted for brief shot of snow/wind on the backside of the weekend storm, for late Sunday/early Monday.

[Buffalo Bumble]

Getting into range now where we can finally start to look at some details on the lake effect for next week...For us northtowners...a lot looks to ride on how much troffing hangs back over the upper GL's from late Monday through Tuesday.  If we can get that trof to slow down/pinwheel for a time as cold air deepens, we're in business (12Z GFS looks real good in that regard).  But if it stays progressive and moves through quickly, or even dives too far south (introducing too much shear), we're mostly out of the game.  At least for the Mon/Tue period.  

[lakeeffectkid383]

Seems early to me...I don't see any defined lake effect kicking in until Monday afternoon at the earliest as it will take some time for winds to align after the weekend storm passes.  Earliest we see watches IMO would be Sunday AM.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see an advisory posted for brief shot of snow/wind on the backside of the weekend storm, for late Sunday/early Monday.

think the lake effect gets going overnight Sunday even though it will likely be in the southern tier at that time. Being that it still looks like it's going to be a pretty high impact event, I think they issue them this afternoon (about 48 hours out from the start of the event.)

[ayuud11]

Getting into range now where we can finally start to look at some details on the lake effect for next week...For us northtowners...a lot looks to ride on how much troffing hangs back over the upper GL's from late Monday through Tuesday.  If we can get that trof to slow down/pinwheel for a time as cold air deepens, we're in business (12Z GFS looks real good in that regard).  But if it stays progressive and moves through quickly, or even dives too far south (introducing too much shear), we're mostly out of the game.  At least for the Mon/Tue period.  

There is a brief 6hr window on the 12z GFS bufkit data from 0z-06z Wed where the winds align from the SW-WSW with extreme over the lake instability and impressive lake CAPE & equilibrium (800,15k) respectively.

[ayuud11]

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...MOVING FROM THE

SOUTHERN TIER NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA BY MONDAY

EVENING. WHILE SOME WEATHER RELATED IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH

THIS BAND...A FAR MORE IMPRESSIVE SETUP IS EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY

INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF BUFFALO AND AREA SUBURBS.

THIS BAND MAY CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SNOW

BECOMES MORE FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHERN TIER TOWARD THE END OF THE

WEEK.

WHILE THE INITIAL SNOW ON MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE DOWNPLAYED...THE

MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HIGH

IMPACT LAKE EFFECT EVENT WITH SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLY

ACCUMULATING IN NARROW REGIONS OVER RELATIVELY SHORT PERIODS OF

TIME.

[WNash]

 

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLESUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...MOVING FROM THESOUTHERN TIER NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA BY MONDAYEVENING. WHILE SOME WEATHER RELATED IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITHTHIS BAND...A FAR MORE IMPRESSIVE SETUP IS EXPECTED LATER TUESDAYINTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF BUFFALO AND AREA SUBURBS.THIS BAND MAY CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SNOWBECOMES MORE FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHERN TIER TOWARD THE END OF THEWEEK.WHILE THE INITIAL SNOW ON MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE DOWNPLAYED...THEMIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HIGHIMPACT LAKE EFFECT EVENT WITH SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLYACCUMULATING IN NARROW REGIONS OVER RELATIVELY SHORT PERIODS OFTIME.

 

 

From the latest HWO I'm guessing?

[ayuud11]

From the latest HWO I'm guessing?

Yes sir, still waiting on the latest AFD update.. not sure why it's taking so long?

[WNash]

Yes sir, still waiting on the latest AFD update.. not sure why it's taking so long?

I remember late AFDs for big events in the past. Lots of variables and weighing the language is tricky. It's a Friday afternoon and this event may commence during the work day on Monday. I expect they're taking their time with it. 

[ayuud11]

I remember late AFDs for big events in the past. Lots of variables and weighing the language is tricky. It's a Friday afternoon and this event may commence during the work day on Monday. I expect they're taking their time with it. 

They just updated it, Enjoy!

 

On Sunday the low will cross the eastern Great Lakes just west of

Buffalo with a sharp cold front passing east across the forecast

area through the afternoon hours. As temperatures drop from the 40s

into the 20s behind the front...wrap around moisture will produce

rain showers mixing with then changing to all snow showers by Sunday

evening. Only expecting up to an inch of snow area wide during this

changeover then a lake response kicks in as 850mb temperatures sharply fall

into the negative teens celsius. Additionally...a round of more

widespread westerly gusty winds can be expected behind the cold

front as winds from a 50kt 850mb jet mix to the surface. Gusts into

the 40s will likely require a Wind Advisory for Sunday afternoon and

evening.

Sunday night through Monday Night Lake effect snows will develop

east of the lakes initially on a westerly 270 flow. Steering winds

will then slowly back to about 250 then 220 lifting the lake bands

north by Monday night. Off Lake Erie...this would lift the band

across Buffalo to the northtowns and Niagara Falls. Off Lake

Ontario...the band would lift across Watertown toward the Saint

Lawrence River. The Lake Ontario band even looks to have an upstream

moisture connection with Georgian Bay along with a favorable fetch

across the lake. While accumulating lake snows are expected east of

both lakes...the more significant accumulations will be east of Lake

Ontario due to more favorable parameters. This may also impact the

evening commutes Monday evening in Buffalo and Watertown. Lake

effect headlines will likely be needed to cover this early week

event...with a second stronger event expected later in the week. Due

to the shifting nature of the bands and some more limited parameters

off Lake Erie...will hold off on these headlines until a more clear

scenario develops with confidence increasing as this event

eventually falls within the range of mesoscale models. Outside of

the lake effect...a return to winter temperatures will be felt

across the entire forecast area on Monday with temperatures only

reaching into the 20s for highs and dipping into the teens on Monday

night.

&&

Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...

a more significant...long duration and high impact lake effect snow

event is expected from midweek through Friday on the heels of an

Alberta clipper system forecast to cross the Great Lakes Tuesday.

This clipper will arrive across western and central New York later

Tuesday into Tuesday night with a widespread general snowfall for

all. It is far too early to estimate any snow amount from this

clipper but advisory level totals are not out of the question.

In the wake of this clipper a broad and deep 500mb trough will

settle over the Great Lakes through the end of the week while the

clipper bombs out off the Maine coast and shifts north across the

Canadian Maritimes. This fits the pattern of classic significant

lake effect events when comparing to local research composites.

850mb temperatures will lower toward -20c with Current Lake temperatures of 3c to

5c will create very steep lapse rates and tall lake induced

equilibrium levels. Nearly 24 hours of 270 degree flow Wednesday

into Thursday with a favorable background synoptic moisture pattern

will likely bring snow totals measuring in feet of snow for areas

east of the lakes that see the bands lock in place for an extended

period of time. Thundersnow with snow rates of several inches an

hour may also be possible. The event looks to continue into Friday

before a broad Arctic high builds south across the northern plains

which will veer winds to northerly and begin to Lower Lake induced

equilibrium levels as a subsidence inversion develops. As with the

early week event...it is far too soon to produce confident snow

totals for specific areas for this event. An updated hazardous

weather outlook has been issued to cover this more significant

second event. Temperatures through the week will average near to

below normal with highs only into the 20s and lows overnight in the

teens and single digits.

[Superstorm]

270....Eden, Angola?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[BuffaloWeather]

270....Eden, Angola?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Yep, Hamburg would be on the northern portion of the band with a 270 flow with Springville on the southern portion. 270 hits Boston Hills/Colden hard as well. It depends on how wide the band is. But it's still 5 days out from that event, so lots can change.

[ayuud11]

Yep, Hamburg would be on the northern portion of the band with a 270 flow with Springville on the southern portion. 270 hits Boston Hills/Colden hard as well. It depends on how wide the band is. But it's still 5 days out from that event, so lots can change.

Doesn't Varysburg cash in as well on a 270 flow?

[BuffaloWeather]

Doesn't Varysburg cash in as well on a 270 flow?

 

Yep. But lake temperatures are warm enough where thermal troughing can cause the bands to go more northward than expected. We saw that last November where the hardest hit regions in the 1st event were south buffalo/cheektowaga when modeled it was Boston hills.

[ayuud11]

Yep. But lake temperatures are warm enough where thermal troughing can cause the bands to go more northward than expected. We saw that last November where the hardest hit regions in the 1st event were south buffalo/cheektowaga when modeled it was Boston hills.

Check out the 18z GFS, looks good for Thursday with that steady WSW flow.

[BuffaloWeather]

Check out the 18z GFS, looks good for Thursday with that steady WSW flow.

 

Lots of run to run model variance. Tough to get a good idea with this one.

[Superstorm]

Yep. But lake temperatures are warm enough where thermal troughing can cause the bands to go more northward than expected. We saw that last November where the hardest hit regions in the 1st event were south buffalo/cheektowaga when modeled it was Boston hills.

Good point.

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[lakeeffectkid383]

Early but here it is, my first map in over 7 years!

 

[WNash]

Early but here it is, my first map in over 7 years!

Nice look. I'm thinking that KBUF will treat this as two separate events, unfortunately, knowing how they handle storm reports.

[BuffaloWeather]

Early but here it is, my first map in over 7 years!

 

 

Really nice map. I would most likely have nearly identical totals.

[BuffaloWeather]

Lake temps averaging 40-44

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Some really good QPF totals on Canadian. It has 1 low pressure system that moves through Sunday, followed by 3 clippers with flow changing throughout.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

NAM has nice band across Buffalo North Tuesday Afternoon. It moves the band north earlier than other guidance does.

[wolfie09]

Yea, it has a mix of lake effect/synoptic ..Pure fantasy lol

 

This is how much wb says is snow at 10-1 ratios

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Yea, it has a mix of lake effect/synoptic ..Pure fantasy lol

 

This is how much wb says is snow at 10-1 ratios

 

cmc_snow_acc_syracuse_41.png

 

Canadian is also 15 KM I believe so tough to get a good resolution with it. But yeah I expect the Tug to have 4-6' by the end of the week.

[BuffaloWeather]

I would say Lake Snow Watches/advisorys go up tomorrow afternoon/Sunday AM at the latest. That Tuesday event has a chance to produce decently during Buffalos rush hour. Bands have a tendency to intensify as the fetch increases. NAM shows 12+ hours of heavy snows across the north towns.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

The NAM has the clipper much farther north than the GFS. Look at hour 78 and placement of low. This will have a direct result on wind direction. NAM has a more amped bias beyond 48 hours so a compromise of the 2 would be better. Huge difference and its only 78 hours away. That is why this forecast is so tough. If NAM verifies say hello to LES Warning for northtowns for 1st event.

 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

The GFS ensembles shows the low much farther north than the OP model show which would really help the northtowns in getting the heavier snows Tuesday especially. Pretty awesome well aligned SW wind in this set-up.