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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Fall/Into Winter!

BuffaloWeather

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ayuud11

ayuud11

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That wouldn't suck...I've been watching the upstream blocking very closely on the modeling the last couple days.  If that James Bay vortex gets tucked in and digs south for a time that bodes well for more northern areas to see some action.  Otherwise, probably looking at southtowns to ski country as main impact area - at least off L Erie.  Either way, very interesting to see how this plays out!  

Take a look at last night's 0z GFS run, that's as perfect of a setup you'd want for a northtown event!

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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That wouldn't suck...I've been watching the upstream blocking very closely on the modeling the last couple days.  If that James Bay vortex gets tucked in and digs south for a time that bodes well for more northern areas to see some action.  Otherwise, probably looking at southtowns to ski country as main impact area - at least off L Erie.  Either way, very interesting to see how this plays out!  

 

The city and northtowns will definitely get some out of this event. Was just talking about the beginning of the event favors W/WSW winds.

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WNash

WNash

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I hope i don't get screwed this time around lol, The epic LES bands of Dec'10 and Nov'14 missed me by a mere 5 miles. :lmao:

 

Heh, over the summer we bought a house a little more than a mile east of where we used to live in Parkside (good) but 2/3rds of a mile north (bad). Marginal difference in available fetch, so we'll see if we can squeeze any more out of the North Buffalo events than before. I couldn't convince the wife to go house shopping around Jewett Holmwood (which would have added 45 minutes to both of our commutes). 

 

I don't know if I can take another one like Nov. 14. Watching those clouds hang for days... I felt like I could reach out and TOUCH them. What we got was barely ankle deep.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Heh, over the summer we bought a house a little more than a mile east of where we used to live in Parkside (good) but 2/3rds of a mile north (bad). Marginal difference in available fetch, so we'll see if we can squeeze any more out of the North Buffalo events than before. I couldn't convince the wife to go house shopping around Jewett Holmwood (which would have added 45 minutes to both of our commutes). 

 

I don't know if I can take another one like Nov. 14. Watching those clouds hang for days... I felt like I could reach out and TOUCH them. What we got was barely ankle deep.

 

You moved and didn't go south!?! Come on man! When we buy our house this year I told my wife we aren't going any further north than we are now. ^_^

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WNash

WNash

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You moved and didn't go south!?! Come on man! When we buy our house this year I told my wife we aren't going any further north than we are now. ^_^

 

Smart man. I love our house, and our neighborhood, and it's unbelievably convenient to everything. But for a snow lover, it HURTS to live up this way. I just have to tell myself, even up here, I get a lot of snow - an observer not far from me had over 100 inches last year. But when you see those bands stop about four or five miles south, you've got to question what you did with your life.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Smart man. I love our house, and our neighborhood, and it's unbelievably convenient to everything. But for a snow lover, it HURTS to live up this way. I just have to tell myself, even up here, I get a lot of snow - an observer not far from me had over 100 inches last year. But when you see those bands stop about four or five miles south, you've got to question what you did with your life.

 

Haha yeah I hear you. If I had to choose a place to live around the city it would probably be South Cheektowaga. You guys should move down here, it was voted the best town to live in WNY last year. The town is amazing, it has all the conveniences you would get up there, closer to beaches, 10 mins to the waterfront, and most of all gets quite a bit more snow than the northtowns. ^_^

 

It's tough for me to sacrifice convenience for snow though. It just isn't worth it. I like this location because I don't have to sacrifice anything right now. 5 min drive to work and wife works from home. But if I were to move to the Boston hills/Colden or something it would be a big lifestyle change. With it now I can drive 5-10 mins there if I wanted to chase.

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

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We'll be moving back to Buffalo after our wedding in August (probably within a year or so after). Already starting just to look at houses to get an idea of what's out there in our price range (which is great because housing in Buffalo is so much cheaper than Rhode Island) and she agreed I can move wherever is like within 1 hour of Buffalo so I'll be trying to find the highest ridge in S. erie, Wyoming, Chautauqua, or Cattaraugus County.

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ayuud11

ayuud11

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Heh, over the summer we bought a house a little more than a mile east of where we used to live in Parkside (good) but 2/3rds of a mile north (bad). Marginal difference in available fetch, so we'll see if we can squeeze any more out of the North Buffalo events than before. I couldn't convince the wife to go house shopping around Jewett Holmwood (which would have added 45 minutes to both of our commutes).

I don't know if I can take another one like Nov. 14. Watching those clouds hang for days... I felt like I could reach out and TOUCH them. What we got was barely ankle deep.

The thing is that it's hard to get a precise 250 flow give or take couple of degrees to get in the action us here in the city, over the years when the winds are from the WSW they tend to be in the 255-260 range which would favor South buffalo out to Lackawanna & W.Seneca and when the winds are from the SW they tend to be in the 240-245 range which would favor the Tonawandas out to the Amherst/Clarence area so as you can see a lot of times the only time we get a chance to be in the bullseye in the city is when those bands migrate from the south towns northward and when they migrate southward from the tonawanda's lol.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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We'll be moving back to Buffalo after our wedding in August (probably within a year or so after). Already starting just to look at houses to get an idea of what's out there in our price range (which is great because housing in Buffalo is so much cheaper than Rhode Island) and she agreed I can move wherever is like within 1 hour of Buffalo so I'll be trying to find the highest ridge in S. erie, Wyoming, Chautauqua, or Cattaraugus County.

 

Awesome man! I knew you couldn't stay away long. ^_^

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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The thing is that it's hard to get a precise 250 flow give or take couple of degrees to get in the action us here in the city, over the years when the winds are from the WSW they tend to be in the 255-260 range which would favor South buffalo out to Lackawanna & W.Seneca and when the winds are from the SW they tend to be in the 240-245 range which would favor the Tonawandas out to the Amherst/Clarence area so as you can see a lot of times the only time we get a chance to be in the bullseye in the city is when those bands migrate from the south towns northward and when they migrate southward from the tonawanda's lol.

 

99-01 saw quite a few events for the northtowns. It's just been awhile and you guys are definitely due.

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SouthBuffaloSteve

SouthBuffaloSteve

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Moved to South Buffalo in 2010 and I've been quite pleased with the storms we have cashed in on here when that wind hits just right. Dec. 2010 and Nov. 2014 for sure.

But yeah the north towns have been in a big time drought... When was the last good event up there? 2006?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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scottmartin49

scottmartin49

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Here's Binghampton;

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
305 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE...
EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE DEFINED BY A POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY N/NE THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY...AND A CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW SUNDAY EVENING. A PERSISTENT INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE
NW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE AND ALSO KEEP THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE TO THE NW OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS WEEK...A STRONG SUPPLY OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH WILL ADVECT NWD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
INFLECTION AND UPPER LEVEL AREA OF CHANNELED VORTICITY. THE
COMBINATION OF BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT AND STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
WAA WITH A ROBUST SUPPLY OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY/NE PA LATE THIS
WEEKEND. AS THIS WARM AIR MASS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...SFC
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESPOND WITH MORNING LOWS ON SUNDAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S AND DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE AFTERNOON UP IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S NEAR 50 FROM WILKES BARRE TO MONTICELLO.

THIS WARM AIR WILL NOT LAST THOUGH AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS MOVING INTO SWRN QUEBEC AND AN ARCTIC AIR MASS DIVES SWD
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEHIND THE LOW. AS THE
COLDER AIR PUSHES IN QUICKLY...THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER
TO ALL SNOW FAIRLY RAPIDLY SUN EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME THOUGH
THE AIR MASS WILL DRY OUT AND MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE LEFT WITH
JUST A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM LATE
SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO BEGIN OF A PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS THE NRN
COUNTIES...MAINLY ONEIDA COUNTY AND FURTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG
THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AS THE WIND TRAJECTORIES REMAIN WEST OR
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE MID
LEVELS. EVEN STILL...COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR STEEP BL
LAPSE RATES MON THROUGH WED WITH WEAK LOW LVL SHEAR...SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL TO PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY EXIST AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS THROUGH MID WEEK UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN IN
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S.

 

Anyone want to lay odds that the whole thing's overbaked and that you're all snow weenies? :lmao:

 

(Latest CFS and EC aren't showing the course of the low in a very favorable way...)

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

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Awesome man! I knew you couldn't stay away long. ^_^

just can't live somewhere that averages less than 30" a season. It's killing me lol. I'd already be back in Buffalo if it wasn't for me buying a house here. Gotta get some equity in the house before I sell it. Can not wait to move back to the area. Already have a job lined up in Orchard Park when I decide to move back which is great because that gives me less of a commute time to work if we move to the Boston Hills or Chautaqua Ridge. The wife can work from home so it doesn't matter much to her where we are besides that she wants to be close enough to visit our family which mostly live in the northtowns.
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ayuud11

ayuud11

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Moved to South Buffalo in 2010 and I've been quite pleased with the storms we have cashed in on here when that wind hits just right. Dec. 2010 and Nov. 2014 for sure.

But yeah the north towns have been in a big time drought... When was the last good event up there? 2006?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'd say 2006 when we had that 2ft but i think we had one in either 08 or 09 where we had a LES blizzard drop one foot of snow.in a matter of hours..

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Here's Binghampton;

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

305 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE...

EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE DEFINED BY A POTENT LOW PRESSURE

SYSTEM EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY N/NE THROUGH THE

EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY...AND A CHANGE OVER

TO SNOW SUNDAY EVENING. A PERSISTENT INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE

NW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE AND ALSO KEEP THE LAKE

EFFECT CLOUDS AND PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE MIDDLE

OF THE WEEK.

EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE TO THE NW OF THE FORECAST

AREA LATE THIS WEEK...A STRONG SUPPLY OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE

SOUTH WILL ADVECT NWD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ALONG A WEAK SURFACE

INFLECTION AND UPPER LEVEL AREA OF CHANNELED VORTICITY. THE

COMBINATION OF BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT AND STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL

WAA WITH A ROBUST SUPPLY OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE 0.5 TO

1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY/NE PA LATE THIS

WEEKEND. AS THIS WARM AIR MASS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...SFC

TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESPOND WITH MORNING LOWS ON SUNDAY IN THE

MID TO UPPER 30S AND DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE AFTERNOON UP IN THE MID

TO UPPER 40S NEAR 50 FROM WILKES BARRE TO MONTICELLO.

THIS WARM AIR WILL NOT LAST THOUGH AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM

DEEPENS MOVING INTO SWRN QUEBEC AND AN ARCTIC AIR MASS DIVES SWD

INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEHIND THE LOW. AS THE

COLDER AIR PUSHES IN QUICKLY...THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER

TO ALL SNOW FAIRLY RAPIDLY SUN EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME THOUGH

THE AIR MASS WILL DRY OUT AND MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE LEFT WITH

JUST A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM LATE

SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO BEGIN OF A PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT

SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE GREATEST

POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS THE NRN

COUNTIES...MAINLY ONEIDA COUNTY AND FURTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG

THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AS THE WIND TRAJECTORIES REMAIN WEST OR

SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE MID

LEVELS. EVEN STILL...COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR STEEP BL

LAPSE RATES MON THROUGH WED WITH WEAK LOW LVL SHEAR...SO THE

POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL TO PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL

LIKELY EXIST AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS THROUGH MID WEEK UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN IN

THE 20S AND LOWER 30S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER

20S.

 

Anyone want to lay odds that the whole thing's overbaked and that you're all snow weenies? :lmao:

 

(Latest CFS and EC aren't showing the course of the low in a very favorable way...)

 

Euro shows some really nice bands next week. And CFS man... :facepalm:

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ayuud11

ayuud11

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Smart man. I love our house, and our neighborhood, and it's unbelievably convenient to everything. But for a snow lover, it HURTS to live up this way. I just have to tell myself, even up here, I get a lot of snow - an observer not far from me had over 100 inches last year. But when you see those bands stop about four or five miles south, you've got to question what you did with your life.

LOL check out the totals from last year's winter, i highlighted the north buffalo station for you hehe.. :lmao:

 

r1kfa1.png

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Buffalo Bumble

Buffalo Bumble

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One thing I am worried about is how close those clippers are that go through the base of the trough. Shear might be an issue from time to time throughout the course of the week.

Seems like we've been tracking this for days, and whatever happens is still 4+ days out!  Shows how starved we are for an event I guess as most of us are sitting on a few inches or less for the entire season.  Common sense says wait until at least Friday's model runs to take this too seriously....but what would be the fun of that... :snowing:

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Seems like we've been tracking this for days, and whatever happens is still 4+ days out!  Shows how starved we are for an event I guess as most of us are sitting on a few inches or less for the entire season.  Common sense says wait until at least Friday's model runs to take this too seriously....but what would be the fun of that... :snowing:

 

Yeah, exactly. Tracking is one of the best parts of winter. If its a let down so be it, the anticipation is awesome. It's not often you see KBUF with such wording 10 days before the event. The large scale pattern showed it being conducive for LES so far in advanced on all ENS suites.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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We started talking about Snowvember 7 days before it happened as well. I remember the GGEM showing feet of snow in its QPF a week in advance for our area. That's the picture I posted at the beginning of the thread. Nick (OSU) mentioned it before KBUF even did.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44743-historic-lake-effect-snowstorm/

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Here is a nice analog for wind directions. (Approximates)

 

290-310 Degrees-  Perrysburg, Ellicottville, Jamestown

280 degrees-  Springville, Collins

270 degrees - Angola, Eden, Boston, Colden

260 degrees - Hamburg, East Aurora
255 degrees - Orchard Park & West Seneca
250 degrees - Downtown Buffalo to the Airport
240-245 degrees - Amherst, Tonawanda
230 degrees - Niagara

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