BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2016 Author Share Posted January 9, 2016 As you can see in the individual GFS runs the spot of that 1st clipper is all over the place. I think once the first low pressure moves through we will have a better idea on low placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2016 Author Share Posted January 9, 2016 The Canadian has the low in a similar place to GEFS ensembles and NAM (amped bias) and thus a nice band over northtowns. With 850s running in the -15 to -17 levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2016 Author Share Posted January 9, 2016 Having said all that I like a quick changeover to snow with the departing low Sunday evening with LES setting up across metro and points south and drifting into ski country where it will remain overnight into Monday and begin to drift northward Monday evening into Tuesday. Best shot for snow in Metro is certainly Tuesday for the short term. Going to stick with 1 event at a time. And of course the Tug will be getting nailed all week, that's the easiest forecast of them all. I really like Fulton/Oswego spots later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2016 Author Share Posted January 9, 2016 I think Thurs is the most significant event. The Euro has a very intense band set-up across southern Erie/ski country. These snowfall rates with good ratios would be 4-5"+ an hour, the tug rates with upslope... even higher? It shows .5" of QPF in a 3 hour period on Thurs. with ratios of 1:20 to 1:25 that would be 10-15" in 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I think Thurs is the most significant event. The Euro has a very intense band set-up across southern Erie/ski country. These snowfall rates with good ratios would be 4-5"+ an hour, the tug rates with upslope... even higher? It shows .5" of QPF in a 3 hour period on Thurs. with ratios of 1:20 to 1:25 that would be 10-15" in 3 hours. I really liked the orientation of the banding per the latest Euro run. It looks like the Tug as you said is a given to get hammered all week. The Hamburg/Boston Hills area look to get nailed really good on the Thursday as the strong vort swings over the Lakes. I would bet money on TSSN+ for that band if it were to materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2016 Author Share Posted January 9, 2016 I really liked the orientation of the banding per the latest Euro run. It looks like the Tug as you said is a given to get hammered all week. The Hamburg/Boston Hills area look to get nailed really good on the Thursday as the strong vort swings over the Lakes. I would bet money on TSSN+ for that band if it were to materialize. Yeah I liked the look as well, lots can change as we're still 5+ days away. Will definitely be a close call here based on latest model for the Thurs event, but as we saw last year sometimes the northern portion of the band can be the most intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2016 Author Share Posted January 9, 2016 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/threats.php?reg=EC&rundt=2016010900 Should be a snowy week across all of upstate based on analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2016 Author Share Posted January 9, 2016 If I had to pick a snowfall winner by next sunday I would pick Redfield off the tug and Colden for Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Kbuf HWO WHILE THE INITIAL SNOW ON MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE DOWNPLAYED...THEMIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HIGHIMPACT LAKE EFFECT EVENT WITH SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLYACCUMULATING IN NARROW REGIONS OVER RELATIVELY SHORT PERIODS OFTIME. LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL MOVE NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THEEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND WILL AFFECT MUCH OF OSWEGO COUNTYAND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY DURINGMIDWEEK. A look at the 6z gfs valid monday through friday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Looks like some pretty big differences between GFS and Euro/CMC for the mid to late week lake effect. GFS likes the idea of a bomb moving slowly north from Maine as driving the flow - which would be WNW with connection to upper lakes = major hammer time for the Oswego to Syracuse corridor. Euro/CMC look to bring another trof/clipper through the lakes, which would disrupt the flow quite a bit. Interesting week ahead for sure - finally! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2016 Author Share Posted January 9, 2016 .4 total qpf for my area on that. i knew Gfs was bad at les qpf but not that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Kbuf HWO A look at the 6z gfs valid monday through friday.. gfs_precip_120hr_syracuse_30.png i know the gfs is going to under model the QPF but look at the difference between Erie and Ontario, looks to be a much more impressive event off Ontario. Also according to the GFS most of the snow off Erie looks to be in ski country and not really even touch the southtowns... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 12z gfs continues to like SE of ontario during the wed into thur time frame..As usual the models are bringing the "heavier" stuff to far inland..I know from personal experience living in the western mohawk valley for 5 years lol 24 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2016 Author Share Posted January 9, 2016 Gfs says 1-3" for buffalo area and suburbs book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 **** you 12z gfs :gun_bandana: :gun_bandana: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 **** you 12z gfs :gun_bandana: :gun_bandana: whats so bad about it?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Looks like this is adding up to be a big old BUST for the metro and immediate south towns... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2016 Author Share Posted January 9, 2016 Looks like this is adding up to be a big old BUST for the metro and immediate south towns... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pretty much as expected with this forecast for the 1st event. My call was LES watch for southern erie and ski country and I think a LES advisory goes up for Northern Erie maybe Niagara by Monday am shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 whats so bad about it?? The LES parameters were just awful, take a look at the 18z bufkit data for Thursday it's now showing steady WSW flow instead of the westerly flow it was showing in the earlier 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 The LES parameters were just awful, take a look at the 18z bufkit data for Thursday it's now showing steady WSW flow instead of the westerly flow it was showing in the earlier 12z run. The GGEM goes to a SW flow on Thursday. GFS WSW, Euro gets to nearly WSW but mainly W/WNW. Models are all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 The GGEM goes to a SW flow on Thursday. GFS WSW, Euro gets to nearly WSW but mainly W/WNW. Models are all over. Me thinks BUF is conservative on the snowfall amounts for the first initial event, we might get advisory amounts from that first low per the 18z Goofus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 Me thinks BUF is conservative on the snowfall amounts for the first initial event, we might get advisory amounts from that first low per the 18z Goofus. Yeah, Advisorys won't get issued until they put up LES Warnings for the Watch counties. I would say safe bet for LES advs for northtowns and Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Yeah, Advisorys won't get issued until they put up LES Warnings for the Watch counties. I would say safe bet for LES advs for northtowns and Metro. No doubt about that, lets hope KBUF can at least get 20" out of this.. we are running -40 on the snowfall department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Hello everyone, thought i'd pop in and say hi. Hope the holidays went well for all. I've had 5" of snow thus far. I thought 2001/02 & 2011/12 were lousy winters but this one may rule them all. Frankly, it's a lot easier not having to clear snow all the time. I could get very used to this. Looks like some snow next week east of Lake Ontario on the Tug but not much else going on for CNY. Bring on Spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Going to Patiently wait my turn, latest p&c forecast Tuesday A chance of snow showers before 1pm, then snow likely after 1pm. Areas of blowing snow after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday Night Snow likely before 1am, then snow showers likely after 1am. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow before 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 18. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday Snow showers likely. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a high near 23. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday Night Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 14. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Thursday Snow showers likely. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a high near 25. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Thursday Night Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 18. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 Going to Patiently wait my turn, latest p&c forecast Tuesday A chance of snow showers before 1pm, then snow likely after 1pm. Areas of blowing snow after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday Night Snow likely before 1am, then snow showers likely after 1am. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow before 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 18. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday Snow showers likely. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a high near 23. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday Night Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 14. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Thursday Snow showers likely. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a high near 25. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Thursday Night Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 18. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Not a big fan of point and clicks because during the same timeframe it gives you heavy snow it gives me heavy snow and that would be impossible based on wind direction. I believe the Euro is the best model and that one would give you 1-2 feet of snow on Thursday. Sunday Night Snow showers likely. Areas of blowing snow after 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 20. Windy, with a west wind around 32 mph, with gusts as high as 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Monday Snow showers, mainly after 11am. Areas of blowing snow before 8am, then areas of blowing snow after 11am. High near 23. Windy, with a west wind 22 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Monday Night Snow showers, mainly before 2am. Areas of blowing snow before 8pm. Low around 19. West wind 14 to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Tuesday A chance of snow showers before 8am, then snow likely after 8am. Areas of blowing snow after 8am. Cloudy, with a high near 30. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday Night Snow likely before 8pm, then snow showers likely after 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow before 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 16. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday Snow showers likely. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a high near 21. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday Night Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday Snow showers likely. The snow could be heavy at times. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Thursday Night Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 We have our 1st warning for event 1. Enjoy Tug Hill peeps! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY1002 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016NYZ006>008-101115-/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0001.160111T0300Z-160112T0900Z//O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0002.160111T0300Z-160112T0900Z/OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE1002 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AMEST TUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECTSNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM ESTTUESDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON...AND LEWIS COUNTIES. GREATEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION.* TIMING...FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES SUNDAY NIGHT...10 TO 19 INCHES MONDAY...AND 4 TO 7 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF MORE THAN 2 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.* VISIBILITIES...UNDER A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.* TEMPERATURES...LOWS AROUND 20 SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER 20S MONDAY. LOWS IN THE TEENS MONDAY NIGHT.* IMPACTS...BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL PRODUCE EXTREMELY POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND VERY POOR VISIBILITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 Looks like 2-3' possible for event 1 on the Tug with a stronger LES event later on in the week, they could be approaching some insane totals by next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Looks like 2-3' possible for event 1 on the Tug with a stronger LES event later on in the week, they could be approaching some insane totals by next weekend. I don't really have too much to add on this week coming up. My 3-5' for Tug is in jeopardy for the week as in, more like 5-7' lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Looks like 2-3' possible for event 1 on the Tug with a stronger LES event later on in the week, they could be approaching some insane totals by next weekend. I am very confident someone sees 40" off Ontario with that Georgian Bay connection by Tuesday afternoon. Looks utterly perfect. Even the 4km NAM spits about over 2" of QPF with this, and I'd be ratios are going to be a bit better than 15:1. Only wish I could be there to see it happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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