wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Hpc Day 1 (12") Not much going on day 2 Day 3 shifts south 8" 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 So it's looking like after a quick burst on Tuesday round two will be well south now? The forecast keeps jumping all over the place! Anyone seeing anything else possibly taking shape for the metro at this point or just Monday PM and maybe Tuesday PM during the synoptic hit? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 Hpc Day 1 (12") Screenshot_2016-01-10-21-23-34.png Not much going on day 2 Day 3 shifts south 8" Screenshot_2016-01-10-21-26-18.png 12" Screenshot_2016-01-10-21-27-32.png Nice wolfie. Lakes will be firing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 The very strong winds are really not to good in getting one singular strong band going off Erie. Shouldn't be to much of a factor off Ontario as there should be a incredible band going right through tomorrow evening there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 So it's looking like after a quick burst on Tuesday round two will be well south now? The forecast keeps jumping all over the place! Anyone seeing anything else possibly taking shape for the metro at this point or just Monday PM and maybe Tuesday PM during the synoptic hit? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk No, round 2 looks good for Fulton/Oswego as soon as the clipper passes winds go WNW which hit his area. But following a 5-10 hour window the winds turn ahead of another approaching clipper. The winds turn W/WSW and maybe even SW on Thursday. The best timeframe for Metro Buffalo is Tomorrow evening into Tuesday afternoon for event 1 and then weds evening into Thurs for round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 Pretty cool scenario here that I haven't seen much in following LES for over a decade. We have a WNW flow off of Ontario and a almost SW flow off Erie at this timeframe, pretty cool stuff! By hour 75 the Metro area is getting hit hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 Wolfie I like your location from Weds Morning to Weds evening the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 Bands all over, might be seeing a more concrete band form across ski country soon here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Looks like a Rt.177; Adams/Barnes Corners band off Ontario setting up; http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=TYX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=no Those tend to go all night before dropping south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 Looks like a Rt.177; Adams/Barnes Corners band off Ontario setting up; http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=TYX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=no Those tend to go all night before dropping south... Very thin band right now, looks like it should strengthen and widen through the early morning hours. It will drift north tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 Wind direction already changing over Michigan to almost due west. Looks like London area is getting hit good right now in Ontario as well. nice 2 band connection right now there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Pretty cool scenario here that I haven't seen much in following LES for over a decade. We have a WNW flow off of Ontario and a almost SW flow off Erie at this timeframe, pretty cool stuff! By hour 75 the Metro area is getting hit hard. The Canadian was on to something after all, will see how this plays out but first lets get through with the first round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 The Canadian was on to something after all, will see how this plays out but first lets get through with the first round. Looks like a nice band forming now over ski country, finally getting its act together but the winds are making it tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Wind direction already changing over Michigan to almost due west. Looks like London area is getting hit good right now in Ontario as well. nice 2 band connection right now there. Part of that band off L. Huron looks like it's extending all the way to northern Erie/southern Niagara counties. Nice looking band in Ellicotville area off L. Erie right now. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=buf&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Looks like a nice band forming now over ski country, finally getting its act together but the winds are making it tough. Ha ha - just posted about that too. Nice upslope action down there too I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 Ha ha - just posted about that too. Nice upslope action down there too I'm sure. It's decent, nothing special though. Very cellular due to strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Looks like it wants to consolidate and shift a little north so bad... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Watch issued for tue night through wed.. kbuf TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME INCREASINGLYFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES IN A GENERAL280-290 FLOW REGIME. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR -18C WILLCERTAINLY GENERATE EXTREME OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WITH LAKE INDUCEDEQUILIBRIUM LEVELS NEARING 18K FEET. MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP THEDENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE PEGGED WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELYYIELD SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOURS FOR AN EXTENDEDPERIOD OF TIME. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR AREASSOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LAKE SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD ASTHE FLOW BACKS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS MAYBRING SOME DECENT SNOWFALL VERY CLOSE TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWNAREAS DEPENDING ON JUST HOW MUCH THE FLOW BACKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 A quick look at the zone forecast for N.Erie has us getting 4-7" today into tonight and another 3-5" tomorrow and most likely some warning totals come Wednesday. Wednesday Lake effect snow becoming likely in the afternoon. Snow may be heavy at times in the afternoon. Cold with highs around 20. West winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph in the morning. Chance of snow 70 percent. Wednesday Night Lake effect snow. Snow may be heavy at times. Lows 10 to 15. Chance of snow near 100 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Watch issued for tue night through wed.. kbuf Looks good for you Wolfie,hope you cash in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Wow that band off Erie is cranking near Dunkirk. Thruway cams show total whiteout between Dunkirk and Westfield and show a whole lot of trucks at the Westfield cam just sitting there. Actually surprised the thruway isn't shut down yet because there is no one who is making it through that band right now down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Wow that band off Erie is cranking near Dunkirk. Thruway cams show total whiteout between Dunkirk and Westfield and show a whole lot of trucks at the Westfield cam just sitting there. Actually surprised the thruway isn't shut down yet because there is no one who is making it through that band right now down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Got to be 2-3"/hr rates in that band over Dunkirk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Got to be 2-3"/hr rates in that band over Dunkirk.easy and they've been getting it for a few hours now. Looks like the band is slowly starting to lift north, the silver creek webcam is now becoming quite snowy. Not sure this move is the one that makes it up to Buffalo later or if this is just a temporary slight jog north in he band for now because upstream radar in Cleveland doesn't look like the band is moving too far north yet. If this band sits where it's at now all day today someone will have 2'+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 That band is awesome. Definite northward drift. Winds are SW near Cleveland but due west near Buffalo Marina, creating a natural boundary that will be tough to break for a few hours at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I'm actually really impressed with the band off Erie. Ontario is definitley impressive too but I expected it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 easy and they've been getting it for a few hours now. Looks like the band is slowly starting to lift north, the silver creek webcam is now becoming quite snowy. Not sure this move is the one that makes it up to Buffalo later or if this is just a temporary slight jog north in he band for now because upstream radar in Cleveland doesn't look like the band is moving too far north yet. If this band sits where it's at now all day today someone will have 2'+ It's moving northward,it should be near the southtowns by mid-day.. I'm really tempted to do a quick chase to Dunkrik using route 20 just to see how bad it is down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 9" as of 20 mins ago in perrysburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 It's moving northward,it should be near the southtowns by mid-day.. I'm really tempted to do a quick chase to Dunkrik using route 20 just to see how bad it is down there. look at the webcam, it's bad down there. There's no way you would make it down there right now even with Rex Ryan's truck. It's a complete and total whiteout down there right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 That band is awesome. Definite northward drift. Winds are SW near Cleveland but due west near Buffalo Marina, creating a natural boundary that will be tough to break for a few hours at least. This band will not make it to Buffalo, and anyone thinking otherwise is in for a dissapointment. The band may make it that far North and pass it, as the SW comes into play Tuesday and winds start to back ahead of the potent SW, after that WNW winds prevail through at least Wednesday evening then the band swings North again in response to ridging building from the western great lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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