MillvilleWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 This weekend is looking really nice off of Ontario. I very persistent flow over the lake with a good long fetch connection according to the 0z GFS. Saturday has the best chance for the region with the southern and central Tug region looking primed for a really nice event setting up. Nothing historic, but the Lakes will be delivering the goods for a few days for sure. Could see a lot of white showing up around the snow belt by next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Lake Effect Rain in late December... Good Grief! Yeah the dud potential for the New Years event is growing and growing. Maybe a little action down by you in the southern burbs but looking like a stretch for anything up here in the metro. Home Bills game Sunday... If I had only one wish... It would be for the lake band to flare up right over OP around noon on Sunday... Hey a guy can dream can't he? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 Lake Effect Rain in late December... Good Grief! Yeah the dud potential for the New Years event is growing and growing. Maybe a little action down by you in the southern burbs but looking like a stretch for anything up here in the metro. Home Bills game Sunday... If I had only one wish... It would be for the lake band to flare up right over OP around noon on Sunday... Hey a guy can dream can't he? Sent from my iPhone It really is an awesome band. Surface temps range from 35-39. 850 MB temps are around -5 to -8 which is creating enough lift to make Lake effect rain as surface temps on portions of Lake Erie are still 43-48. Just a few more degrees colder and we have a Lake snow advisory/warning in central erie county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 I wouldn't be surprised if there was some snow in the higher elevations around Springbrook. I'll ask my aunt she lives there tomorrow. Also at the tail ends of the band there is some snow showing up on radar in Wyoming/Southern Genesee county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Saw that.. I don't know... KBUF is showing 38. Batavia 37. Even if there is some snow at the higher elevation spots I doubt it's accumulating. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 LES Watches up for Ontario and Advisory for Erie. Long duration but rates don't look overally impressive. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Not impressed. 8" max off Erie. 18" max off Ontario. Rates around 1/2" an hour. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2015 Author Share Posted December 31, 2015 Looks like the southtowns get hit pretty good with latest RGEM and High res NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Not bad for Redfield. Keep you posted the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Latest update from KBUF has 18-24" for my area of Redfield through Saturday with max amounts just north of 30". Nice band off Ontario now but north of me. Hope I'm not watching it sit a few miles north of me for very long. Ready to get this thing started! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2015 Author Share Posted December 31, 2015 Latest update from KBUF has 18-24" for my area of Redfield through Saturday with max amounts just north of 30". Nice band off Ontario now but north of me. Hope I'm not watching it sit a few miles north of me for very long. Ready to get this thing started! Yeah Redfield looks to be in a perfect spot for this. Analogs look better as were so close to the even now. Lake snow advisories for all of Erie county and LES Warnings for the tug/watertown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2015 Author Share Posted December 31, 2015 Looks like up to a foot of snow off Erie and 2 feet off of the Tug. NYZ012-019-020-085-311645- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0032.151231T1700Z-160102T1700Z/ WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 341 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST SATURDAY... * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING...CHAUTAUQUA...AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. GREATEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BOSTON HILLS AND CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. * TIMING...FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND AN INCH THIS AFTERNOON...1 TO 3 INCHES TONIGHT...2 TO 4 INCHES FRIDAY...3 TO 5 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT... AND UP TO AN INCH SATURDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH PRODUCING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY. * LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY...MAINLY FROM THE CITY OF BUFFALO INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SUBURBS. * TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO AN INCH OVERNIGHT AND 2 TO 4 INCHES FRIDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH PRODUCING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY. THIS UPGRADES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON...OSWEGO...AND LEWIS COUNTIES. GREATEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. * TIMING...FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES TODAY...5 TO 9 INCHES TONIGHT...4 TO 7 INCHES FRIDAY...6 TO 11 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...3 TO 6 INCHES SATURDAY IN PERSISTENT BANDS. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 12 TO 18 INCHES ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND UP TO 2 FEET ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH PRODUCING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2015 Author Share Posted December 31, 2015 Looks like some heavier snows friday morning. 3-5" in a 6 hour time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2015 Author Share Posted December 31, 2015 Latest update from KBUF has 18-24" for my area of Redfield through Saturday with max amounts just north of 30". Nice band off Ontario now but north of me. Hope I'm not watching it sit a few miles north of me for very long. Ready to get this thing started! Whats the best LES event you've been through? Do you travel to Redfield every year? Make sure to post pics/videos! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Maybe we will have an over achiever this time rather than a dud... Hey do you look at the WRF maps on the NWS page? I'm trying to load them but something looks all screwy and the most recent I can see is from like 4 days ago... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2015 Author Share Posted December 31, 2015 Yeah they're not working properly. There are other websites to view them at, but can't post right now at work. Maybe someone else can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Whats the best LES event you've been through? Do you travel to Redfield every year? Make sure to post pics/videos! Been coming to Redfield for about 10 years. Had a cabin here for several years but sold it. The new owners still let us use it at Christmas. Probably best event I have seen was 36" over about 4 days. First year I had the cabin was incredible though. Close to 400" and I could stand on top of snow and rest my arm on roof. I'll keep you posted. Seems right now that things have set up north of guidance. Hope it comes south soon. Been here many times dry and watching it snow 5-10 miles away. Hopefully not this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Snowfall forecast, kbuf FRIDAY NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS FURTHER TO THE WNW...PUSHINGTHE BAND SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY AND POSSIBLYCLIPPING THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF CAYUGA COUNTY NEAR FAIR HAVENAND MARTVILLE. THE BAND WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT ANDPOSSIBLY PRODUCE UP TO A FOOT OF ACCUMULATION IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERNOSWEGO COUNTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Personally don't buy the 8-12"+ for Oswego Co./Fulton area on Friday night. Band looks awfully transient and will probably only sit over Central Oswego county for 4-6 hours before lifting back north. Maybe 4-8" for that area but it really seems like a case of jumping from the low end to high end awfully quickly. On another note, the 4km NAM and the NAM have the remnants of the Erie band affecting the Syracuse region (with some help from background synoptic moisture/lift) tonight! That would certainly be interesting to see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Pretty big lake effect snow forecasts from the NWS for Lakes Erie, Ontario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Not impressed so far. Just a coating to .5" so far. Main band currently a couple miles north of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2015 Author Share Posted December 31, 2015 Band isn't supposed to get stronger until this evening and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Band isn't supposed to get stronger until this evening and tomorrow. I agree with strength but more worried about placement. Band also shifts north later tonight before coming back down tomorrow afternoon. Guess we will see. Long ways to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 BUF goes back to a more realistic map in their last update. Band should eventually get going tonight... if I had to guess somewhere around 9-10PM. Flake size won't be great, and we'll probably see at least some graupel mixed in at times with 850 temps not really ideal. Band shifts towards Watertown near daybreak before veering back south tomorrow. Syracuse will get an inch or two at most. Just too transient tomorrow night to get anything significant south of the Tug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 BUF goes back to a more realistic map in their last update. Band should eventually get going tonight... if I had to guess somewhere around 9-10PM. Flake size won't be great, and we'll probably see at least some graupel mixed in at times with 850 temps not really ideal. Band shifts towards Watertown near daybreak before veering back south tomorrow. Syracuse will get an inch or two at most. Just too transient tomorrow night to get anything significant south of the Tug Still shows solid 18-24" from 7pm tonight - 7pm Saturday for my area in Redfield with 30" max just north of me. Band definitely will be moving around quite a bit starting early morning though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Still shows solid 18-24" from 7pm tonight - 7pm Saturday for my area in Redfield with 30" max just north of me. Band definitely will be moving around quite a bit starting early morning though.Yeah I was talking about putting Fulton/Baldwinsville in the 8-12/12-18" range. Seemed way too high.Band still sitting right around where expected but pretty poorly organized. Let me know if you get graupel when the band moves through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 The lake effect better get its act together quickly. It looks like total crap. Those 30 " totals off Ontario will be laughable it doesn't strengthen quite a bit. I think this event is going to struggle throughout its entirety with less than ideal moisture to work with. Still think a max off Erie somewhere near Colden with around 10" and a max off Ontario of around 18" near or just south of Worth. Not a bad event especially in this winter but nothing to write home about it appears. I hope I'm wrong and I'd be happy to be wrong because I was considering chasing this earlier in the week when the models looked like this was going to be a big event. I'm not 100% out, if the band can get its act together quickly and looks impressive by morning. Wouldn't mind booking something for a night or 2 on the Tug to start the New Year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Agree.. .5" here so far and the les band is unorganized and looks further north than modeled in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2016 Author Share Posted January 1, 2016 Can see the shortwave coming in with moisture being added off of superior and Huron. Best band will be tomorrow morning off Erie and afternoon/evening off Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 The lake effect better get its act together quickly. It looks like total crap. Those 30 " totals off Ontario will be laughable it doesn't strengthen quite a bit. I think this event is going to struggle throughout its entirety with less than ideal moisture to work with. Still think a max off Erie somewhere near Colden with around 10" and a max off Ontario of around 18" near or just south of Worth. Not a bad event especially in this winter but nothing to write home about it appears. I hope I'm wrong and I'd be happy to be wrong because I was considering chasing this earlier in the week when the models looked like this was going to be a big event. I'm not 100% out, if the band can get its act together quickly and looks impressive by morning. Wouldn't mind booking something for a night or 2 on the Tug to start the New Year! Almost certainly will be in a weakened state tomorrow morning as the flow backs a little bit ahead of the approaching s/w. Tomorrow is really when activity should pick up, although I still think we see some better organization later this evening/tonight. Webcams from some areas near the Tug look like at least a few inches has fallen in places. It's just going to slowly accumulate over the next 48 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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