BuffaloWeather Posted December 19, 2015 Author Share Posted December 19, 2015 Also, Star Wars was awesome, go see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Made it to Pulaski about midnight last night, barely. The snow was falling at such a pace I could barely see anything. No snow the entire ride until I got 6 miles away and then once I was 3 miles away it was a total whiteout. Anyways maybe 3" or so here but I'm actually pretty disappointed so far. Thought there would be more by now. There's about the same amount of snow on the ground now as there was when I arrived around midnight. The band actually looks pretty disorganized with multiple cells until it hits the tug. I know the the tug is providing extra lift but why is the band so disorganized looking like it is right now instead of one solid band? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 That death band is insane!!! Sitting 4 miles to my north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Getting pounded now, prob about 6-8" eye balling it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 19, 2015 Author Share Posted December 19, 2015 Nice man enjoy, pics/video! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Direct hit here; probably 10-16". Between the CFSv2's accuracy this year and the improvement in LES forecasting over the last two or three years, I'm out of a hobby! Just gonna' read the report and nod from now on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Made it to Pulaski about midnight last night, barely. The snow was falling at such a pace I could barely see anything. No snow the entire ride until I got 6 miles away and then once I was 3 miles away it was a total whiteout. Anyways maybe 3" or so here but I'm actually pretty disappointed so far. Thought there would be more by now. There's about the same amount of snow on the ground now as there was when I arrived around midnight. The band actually looks pretty disorganized with multiple cells until it hits the tug. I know the the tug is providing extra lift but why is the band so disorganized looking like it is right now instead of one solid band? Nice man, i hope it was worth the trip i took this video last night chasing the Erie band down on the thruway.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 On and off light snow throughout the day, maybe a 1/2" of wind swept snow..Nws gives a little hope for tonight.. Tonight Snow showers before 10pm, then snow between 10pm and 4am, then snow showers after 4am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 30. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 6 inches possible. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=43.32235359993979&lon=-76.41463813644003#.VnXEeUlOlnF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 19, 2015 Author Share Posted December 19, 2015 Nice man, i hope it was worth the trip i took this video last night chasing the Erie band down on the thruway.. Nice man! Some totals NEW YORK ...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY... EAST OTTO 6.0 1144 AM 12/19 POST OFFICE ...LEWIS COUNTY... CONSTABLEVILLE 24.0 1142 AM 12/19 TRAINED SPOTTER HIGHMARKET 24.0 130 PM 12/19 COOP OBSERVER ...OSWEGO COUNTY... ALTMAR 18.0 1133 AM 12/19 POST OFFICE *********************24 HOUR SNOWFALL********************** LOCATION 24 HOUR TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT NEW YORK ...ALLEGANY COUNTY... 4 SW WEST ALMOND 3.9 1000 AM 12/19 COCORAHS ALFRED 2.1 700 AM 12/19 COOP OBSERVER 1 E WHITESVILLE 1.7 700 AM 12/19 COOP OBSERVER ...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY... 1 N LITTLE VALLEY 9.5 800 AM 12/19 COCORAHS LITTLE VALLEY 9.0 700 AM 12/19 COOP OBSERVER 1 ENE RANDOLPH 8.0 730 AM 12/19 COCORAHS HUMPHERY 8.0 600 AM 12/19 SOCIAL MEDIA 1 NNE FRANKLINVILLE 7.2 725 AM 12/19 COCORAHS SE WEST VALLEY 6.0 700 AM 12/19 COCORAHS FRANKLINVILLE 6.0 700 AM 12/19 TRAINED SPOTTER ...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY... 2 SW FORESTVILLE 5.0 800 AM 12/19 COCORAHS 1 WNW FREDONIA 1.9 500 AM 12/19 COCORAHS 1 SW DUNKIRK 1.0 700 AM 12/19 COCORAHS 1 S DUNKIRK 1.0 700 AM 12/19 COOP OBSERVER ...ERIE COUNTY... 2 SE GLENWOOD 4.8 800 AM 12/19 COCORAHS 3 WSW ELMA 4.8 700 AM 12/19 COCORAHS ENE EAST AURORA 3.7 700 AM 12/19 COCORAHS 2 NE BOSTON 3.0 730 AM 12/19 COCORAHS WSW HAMBURG 2.7 700 AM 12/19 COCORAHS 2 SSW BLASDELL 1.0 700 AM 12/19 COCORAHS 2 W WEST SENECA 0.8 800 AM 12/19 COCORAHS 3 NE CHEEKTOWAGA 0.1 700 AM 12/19 COCORAHS BUFFALO-NIAGARA INTL 0.1 700 AM 12/19 COOP OBSERVER ...GENESEE COUNTY... 2 NE STAFFORD 0.3 700 AM 12/19 COCORAHS ...JEFFERSON COUNTY... SE MANNSVILLE 1.0 700 AM 12/19 COCORAHS ...LEWIS COUNTY... WEST LEYDEN 14.0 600 AM 12/19 SOCIAL MEDIA 1 NW CONSTABLEVILLE 9.0 500 AM 12/19 COCORAHS HIGHMARKET 7.8 327 AM 12/19 COOP OBSERVER 1 SSW GLENFIELD 3.0 600 AM 12/19 COCORAHS LOWVILLE 2.0 900 AM 12/19 SOCIAL MEDIA ...LIVINGSTON COUNTY... 1 ENE DANSVILLE 0.6 700 AM 12/19 COCORAHS 4 WSW DANSVILLE 0.5 600 AM 12/19 COCORAHS ...OSWEGO COUNTY... 8 NNW REDFIELD 11.0 900 AM 12/19 COCORAHS PULASKI 7.0 800 AM 12/19 COOP OBSERVER 5 ESE OSWEGO 4.2 600 AM 12/19 COCORAHS SE MINETTO 1.8 800 AM 12/19 COCORAHS 1 NE PULASKI 1.0 600 AM 12/19 COCORAHS ...WYOMING COUNTY... 3 W WYOMING 6.2 700 AM 12/19 COOP OBSERVER 6 SW WARSAW 5.0 700 AM 12/19 COOP OBSERVER 3 N SILVER SPRINGS 4.0 700 AM 12/19 COOP OBSERVER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 I am seeing Public Information Statements out of BUF saying 2-14" for Lewis County NY, early, then 24.0" and 36.0" as of late today. If so, I'd say this was a heavy event for the Tug Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 I am seeing Public Information Statements out of BUF saying 2-14" for Lewis County NY, early, then 24.0" and 36.0" as of late today. If so, I'd say this was a heavy event for the Tug Hill. Mostly on the southern half of the Tug, but absolutely was. I think Constableville has the highest amount total of right around 36"... a lot in the 14-24" range as well even in the lowlands. pretty sharp gradient on the northern edge and more spread out to the south where the band has been rather transient. Wasn't in Oswego for the fun, but it looks like they'll end up with somewhere around 8-12" for the event. This was their first snow event this month, to go along with the ~3" they had in late November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 I am seeing Public Information Statements out of BUF saying 2-14" for Lewis County NY, early, then 24.0" and 36.0" as of late today. If so, I'd say this was a heavy event for the Tug Hill. Yup; an honest 2-3 footer. Not that common, even for us! It's just letting up now, after a steady fall from Friday night through this afternoon. Snow Ridge is opening tomorrow for ungroomed freshie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2015 Author Share Posted December 20, 2015 Going to be a warm x-mas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2015 Author Share Posted December 20, 2015 A few pics from the hardest hit region. Constableville ny my railing is 38" high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2015 Author Share Posted December 20, 2015 From KBUF: Current Stats: AVERAGE MONTHLY: 42.6 DPTR FM NORMAL: +10.8 We are going to destroy the old warmest Dec record of 37.6. .CLIMATE...ALTHOUGH BUFFALO HAS GOTTEN ITS FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW...THISWINTER CONTINUES TO BE OFF TO AN EXTRAORDINARILY WARM START.SPEAKING OF WHICH...YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH ISEXPECTED NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL BRING NEARRECORD TO POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ANDTHURSDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE). LISTED BELOW ARE THE CURRENT RECORDSFOR DECEMBER 23RD AND 24TH...WEDNESDAY...CITY.........RECORD HIGH (F)....RECORD WARM LOW (F).....BUFFALO......59 / 1957...........46 / 1941ROCHESTER....60 / 1957...........43 / 2006WATERTOWN....58 / 1990...........42 / 2006CHRISTMAS EVE...BUFFALO......59 / 1964...........46 / 1979ROCHESTER....58 / 1982...........47 / 2014WATERTOWN....59 / 2014...........49 / 2014WHEN CONSIDERING THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH...DECEMBER 2015 STANDS A GOOD CHANCE TO BECOME THE WARMEST DECEMBERON RECORD IN WESTERN NEW YORK. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THEMONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE MAY TOP 40 DEGREES...WHICH PUTS THEFOLLOWING RECORDS IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY.WARMEST MEAN TEMPERATURE FOR DECEMBER...CITY TEMP YEARBUFFALO.....37.6 (1923)ROCHESTER...39.0 (2006) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2015 Author Share Posted December 20, 2015 Things are looking to change late next week and into the first week of January. Much better pattern shaping up. Courtesy of Typhoon tip, one of my favorite posters on NE forums. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47437-winter-lorn-given-a-reason-to-smile/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Things are looking to change late next week and into the first week of January. Much better pattern shaping up. Courtesy of Typhoon tip, one of my favorite posters on NE forums. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47437-winter-lorn-given-a-reason-to-smile/ Great write up by Tip, finally something else to look forward too than this miserable bills. :angry: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 The trip to Pulaski was great. Ended up with about 13-14" at the hotel which was right on par with the Cocorahs observer and Coop observer in Pulaski which both reported 13". A pretty good event with the snow coming in dozens of verrying length burst of true +SN with winds gusting in excess of 35+mph. Was frustrating at times seeing the band just to my north and just to my south at times but it still seems like Pulaski had one of the higher totals of the lower elevations. There was an unusual amount of graupel in this event which was the cause of a lot of really intense echoes on the radar. There were times that the radar had near 45 dbz returns and when we did get under them the snow was fairly heavy but there was a lot of Graupel. Wanted to stop on the way home through the hardest hit area of Constableville and Lyonsdale but the fiancé opted to not add another 1-2 hours of drive time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Don't know why on Mobile I can't post photos, even if I go to the desktop version of the site so I will post a couple photos from Photobucket. The one at McDonald's is from around 9:30am on Saturday and the other one is of my vehicle from the hotel room Saturday afternoon during one of the heavy squalls. The radar image is from Saturday morning when the really heavy returns were just 4 miles to my north. When we did get into the heavy returns there was tons of Graupel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 The trip to Pulaski was great. Ended up with about 13-14" at the hotel which was right on par with the Cocorahs observer and Coop observer in Pulaski which both reported 13". A pretty good event with the snow coming in dozens of verrying length burst of true +SN with winds gusting in excess of 35+mph. Was frustrating at times seeing the band just to my north and just to my south at times but it still seems like Pulaski had one of the higher totals of the lower elevations. There was an unusual amount of graupel in this event which was the cause of a lot of really intense echoes on the radar. There were times that the radar had near 45 dbz returns and when we did get under them the snow was fairly heavy but there was a lot of Graupel. Wanted to stop on the way home through the hardest hit area of Constableville and Lyonsdale but the fiancé opted to not add another 1-2 hours of drive time . All in all a great trip and was actually quite nostalgic. Walking everywhere instead of driving all day Saturday with how close everything was to the hotel and how bad the roads were made me feel like a teenager before I had my license! Hoping to make another trip up there again in February when we have a Feb '07 repeat I remember seeing negative ZDR values through much of the band up there (though you always have to be careful interpreting ZDR due to potential miscalibration of the radar). Those values likely indicate a mixture of conical and irregularly shaped graupel, especially with the relatively high ZH for frozen precipitation. Its cool that you observed a lot of graupel during the event, confirming some of these radar signatures. I think with the large low-level instabilities, fairly strong (for lake-effect) convective updrafts developed, enhancing the amount of supercooled water droplets in the environment and initiating substantial riming and the development of graupel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 There seems to be a lot of graupel in early season events...especially given the 850 temps were in the -8 to -10c range...when there should plenty of supercooled water in the cloud. If the event had -15c 850s...there would have been less graupel imo but heavier snowfall rates and totals. So I think a bit less to do with absolute instability and a bit more to do with the cloud hydrometeor mixture. For example, Nov 2014, with extreme le instability (way more so than this past event) had much less graupel as 850 temps were in the -16 to -18c range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 There seems to be a lot of graupel in early season events...especially given the 850 temps were in the -8 to -10c range...when there should plenty of supercooled water in the cloud. If the event had -15c 850s...there would have been less graupel imo but heavier snowfall rates and totals. So I think a bit less to do with absolute instability and a bit more to do with the cloud hydrometeor mixture. For example, Nov 2014, with extreme le instability (way more so than this past event) had much less graupel as 850 temps were in the -16 to -18c range. I agree. There have been studies that show that riming is much more efficient around -10C due the crystal shapes being more isometric. These shapes are then likely to fall faster, collecting more supercooled liquid drops over a given time than dendrites or columns, developing more readily into graupel.Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 The pattern gets a little interesting in the Sunday to Monday timeframe (12/27-12/28) with a deep low ejecting out of the Southern plains and very strong Surface high over Eastern Canada. The pattern looks conducive for an overrunning precip event with freezing rain a possibility, albeit very shortlived and transitioning to all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Yeah thats a nice icestorm on the 00z gfs lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 Pretty awesome video from Binghamton, NY NWS about the upcoming pattern change. https://www.facebook.com/NWSBinghamton/videos/1035431629852814/?theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 Yeah thats a nice icestorm on the 00z gfs lol. I don't even remember the last ice storm in this area. Early 2000s maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 Only 140 hours out to. Half-way decent LES potential on the backside as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 GFS is the coldest of the models so far. Would like to see Euro colder tonight. Making my annual trip to Redfield Dec. 26. Only been up there 1 time where it did not snow. Hope this is not one of those times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 GFS and Euro now have an overrunning event the first of next week. GFS crazy aggressive and Euro to a lesser extent. GGEM further north with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Yeah, if that high holds serve it might be a nice little overrunning/SWFE for Upstate Eastern NY. A few inches with maybe a little ice on the backside. It can change a lot in 24 hours, but might be our best shot at breaking the drought here in ENY while in a crappy pattern. Looks better for LES for those further west down the road too. GFS and Euro now have an overrunning event the first of next week. GFS crazy aggressive and Euro to a lesser extent. GGEM further north with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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