BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 Based on 12z runs, looks like a solid LES event south of Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 NWS mentions 2" per hour snowfall rates. I'll be chasing this one after work Saturday Afternoon. Hopefully it hits the hills of South Eden pretty good as my in-laws live there and will be having dinner at. I'll post some video/pictures. AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY MORNING WE SHOULD HAVE A FULL-FLEDGED LAKEEFFECT SNOW EVENT ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILLPLATEAU. A DECENT SUPPLY OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...WELL-ALIGNEDWESTERLY FLOW...AND ABUNDANT COLD AIR ALOFT WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELSCLIMBING TO 15KFT WILL PROVIDE ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS. INADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS HAVEINDICATED THE PRESENCE OF THE CLASSIC "CROSSHAIRS" SIGNATURE OFSTRONG OMEGA WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SUGGESTING A PERIODOF INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLESATURDAY MORNING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDEDFOR THIS EVENT AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IN THEHWO...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO TO INCREASE CONFIDENCEIN LES BAND PLACEMENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 NWS mentions 2" per hour snowfall rates. I'll be chasing this one after work Saturday Afternoon. Hopefully it hits the hills of South Eden pretty good as my in-laws live there and will be having dinner at. I'll post some video/pictures. AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY MORNING WE SHOULD HAVE A FULL-FLEDGED LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. A DECENT SUPPLY OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...WELL-ALIGNED WESTERLY FLOW...AND ABUNDANT COLD AIR ALOFT WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CLIMBING TO 15KFT WILL PROVIDE ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS HAVE INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF THE CLASSIC "CROSSHAIRS" SIGNATURE OF STRONG OMEGA WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SUGGESTING A PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENT AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN LES BAND PLACEMENT. Latest Bufkit data are meh for the Southern tier, hopefully they cash in! i might chase it too if it's decent one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Not too impressed with this event. Seems like it will be like the November event which produced a max of around 6" or so off Erie. Hope im wrong but don't have a good feeling about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Not too impressed with this event. Seems like it will be like the November event which produced a max of around 6" or so off Erie. Hope im wrong but don't have a good feeling about this one. Man if BUF comes out of this next one with no measurable snow we could be setting up an epic streak that won't be broken for ages! CFSv2 says pattern persists well into Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Man if BUF comes out of this next one with no measurable snow we could be setting up an epic streak that won't be broken for ages! CFSv2 says pattern persists well into Jan. even if BUF manages a couple tenths with a passing snow shower this weekend the record for lowest snowfall through January 1st would still be able to be broken, with the record standing at 1.1" I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 I'd rather see no snow until New Years to shatter a record than see a few inches this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 We can't really complain after last year. Snowiest place in the USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Lots of variables.... Given the current conditions and projected strength of the Low (and its potential transfer over to the Atlantic); over the Soo and up to James won't work. Rather see one slide across Superior, just above Huron, and veeeerrrrry slowly curve it's way up to Ungava. I just don't see enough 'cold' in this one to milk out a Low that far North. Ontario can be quite different from Erie, though. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=2&ftype=probabilities 'The Prob' has us down for half a chance at 4", which I'd say is plausible. I don't think of anything under eight as 'snow', though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 NAM gets it up to Metro Sat. AM. NAM is within decent range too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 Latest Bufkit data are meh for the Southern tier, hopefully they cash in! i might chase it too if it's decent one.. Do you want to meet up sometime if it ends up being decent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 I believe this is freely available... either way, BUF/CLE's early take: Either way, I think BUF's streak will probably end Friday/Saturday. Hopefully we can get some respectable totals out of the lakes before we continue to roast and keep the lakes warm through January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 I believe this is freely available... either way, BUF/CLE's early take: ndfd_snow_syracuse_12.png Either way, I think BUF's streak will probably end Friday/Saturday. Hopefully we can get some respectable totals out of the lakes before we continue to roast and keep the lakes warm through January. What are your thoughts on the long-term forecast into January. The indices look to start cooperating a little better towards the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 Looks like Nino is maxed and will be falling quite rapidly the next few weeks. Looks like a weak Nina next year, I don't think those years are good for snowfall either. Weak Ninos usually yield the best results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 What are your thoughts on the long-term forecast into January. The indices look to start cooperating a little better towards the new year. Doesn't look too great to me: The Euro weeklies/ensemble both show scorching temps through the end of the year, and GEFS does as well. My bet is that the rather historic warmth goes through at least the end of the year, with above normal temperatures continuing through the first week or two of January. Eventually we should see some help in the Pacific, and if we can get a SSWE, we may see normal-below normal temperatures by mid-January. There's really just nothing to support maybe a cold day or two in between major warm spells, similarly to what we are seeing this weekend. Either way, the lakes are going to be absolutely scorching through the New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 Here you go Ayuud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 Doesn't look too great to me: The Euro weeklies/ensemble both show scorching temps through the end of the year, and GEFS does as well. My bet is that the rather historic warmth goes through at least the end of the year, with above normal temperatures continuing through the first week or two of January. Eventually we should see some help in the Pacific, and if we can get a SSWE, we may see normal-below normal temperatures by mid-January. There's really just nothing to support maybe a cold day or two in between major warm spells, similarly to what we are seeing this weekend. Either way, the lakes are going to be absolutely scorching through the New Year. Oh the next 2 weeks are given to be warm after this weekend. I was talking the first 2 weeks of January as the indices and a weakening El Nino should eventually to lead to more ups and downs in regards to temperature, instead of +10-15 average temperatures we are getting in December. The warmest December on record is going to be easily beaten which is pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 Doesn't look too great to me: 4panel.png The Euro weeklies/ensemble both show scorching temps through the end of the year, and GEFS does as well. My bet is that the rather historic warmth goes through at least the end of the year, with above normal temperatures continuing through the first week or two of January. Eventually we should see some help in the Pacific, and if we can get a SSWE, we may see normal-below normal temperatures by mid-January. There's really just nothing to support maybe a cold day or two in between major warm spells, similarly to what we are seeing this weekend. Either way, the lakes are going to be absolutely scorching through the New Year. The EPO has just been relentless this fall...It's strongly tied to a Super Nino though which makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Oh the next 2 weeks are given to be warm after this weekend. I was talking the first 2 weeks of January as the indices and a weakening El Nino should eventually to lead to more ups and downs in regards to temperature, instead of +10-15 average temperatures we are getting in December. The warmest December on record is going to be easily beaten which is pretty cool. Persistence forecasting would indicate to me that the first couple weeks will still predominately be at least a few degrees to several degrees warmer. Overnight temps at the very least will be AN with how warm the lakes are right now. If you trust the relationship between the QBO and +ENSO (small sample size, but isn't everything?), February is the month to actually bet on: For reference, we are in a +QBO (westerly) phase right now, although easterlies are slowly building at the top of the stratosphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Les watch issued .LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH ...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. * LOCATIONS ...OSWEGO, LEWIS AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON, WITH THE TUG HILL PLATEAU LIKELY BEING THE TARGET AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. * TIMING ...FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS ...10 TO 18 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. * WINDS ...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. * VISIBILITIES ...UNDER A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * TEMPERATURES ...LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S SATURDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS ...LOCALIZED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD PRODUCE SLICK AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS ...ALONG WITH GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ...MEDIUM FORECAST CONFIDENCE. WHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOWFALL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 There is one massive blowtorch after another lined up for the Eastern Seaboard heading into the second half of this month. Good lord. The snowboard is still packed away and I am continuing to do exterior renovations and landscaping. Making the best of this weather even though I'd rather be on the slopes. No real end in sight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 After this event, I'd expect the pattern to stay poor for les and snowstorms at least until new year's. All factors stay unfavorable to very unfavorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Warning upgrade for the southern tier and also an Advisory for Northern Erie as well? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Les watch issued .LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH ...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. * LOCATIONS ...OSWEGO, LEWIS AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON, WITH THE TUG HILL PLATEAU LIKELY BEING THE TARGET AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. * TIMING ...FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS ...10 TO 18 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. * WINDS ...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. * VISIBILITIES ...UNDER A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * TEMPERATURES ...LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S SATURDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS ...LOCALIZED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD PRODUCE SLICK AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS ...ALONG WITH GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ...MEDIUM FORECAST CONFIDENCE. WHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOWFALL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS upgraded to a warning .LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AMEST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY. THIS UPGRADES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OSWEGO COUNTY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTY. GREATEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. * TIMING...FROM EARLY FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...7 TO 13 INCHES SATURDAY...2 TO 4 INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AN INCH OR LESS SUNDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS ON THE TUG HILL PLATEAU...AND 12 TO 15 INCHES IN PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH PRODUCING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...LOCALIZED BANDS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN SNOW COVERED ROADS AND VERY POOR VISIBILITY. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 BETWEEN CENTRAL SQUARE AND ADAMS 4K Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 12z CMC VS 12z GFS on the placement of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Well, it may not produce 4 feet of snow, but I envy anyone who can get inside this band... From the 4km NAM on the south side of the Tug Hill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 So we have a lake effect snow warning for up to 3 feet of snow off of Ontario and nearly 1 1/2 feet off Erie in this what has been non existent winter and yet look how quiet it is around here. I live 500 miles away and I think I'm more pumped for you guys then you are for yourselves. Come on people lets get excited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 If I told you what's going on with my family, you wouldnt believe me. I'm excited but this stuff is just crazy and tough to deal with. :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 18, 2015 Author Share Posted December 18, 2015 Pretty good orientation on those bands in Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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