JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 To say the Euro has been producing the same solution consistently over the past 48 hours is false. Take a look at the 120 hour progs from last night, the night before, and the night before that. Overall track has been similar, but the timing has changed substantially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The difference between the euro bust last winter and this situation is we aren't talking about 50 miles. The NYC bust was bad but it was probably overstated because they happened to be under the western envelope of the bust. Nobody would have complained about a 50 mile shift in heavy snow if the whole thing had been out to sea to begin with. This is different in that we are talking about two fundamentally different handlings of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 recon finding sub 940 pressures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Expecting a 120 hr prog to verify verbatim is wishful. It will change, but the reality is that it will only be noticed if that change is to the west. Of course it's not locked but the general idea of ots is dominate. Then again I thought NC LF couple days ago so I'm wishy washy lol. Just have hard time ignoring euro and it's very good TS resume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The difference between the euro bust last winter and this situation is we aren't talking about 50 miles. The NYC bust was bad but it was probably overstated because they happened to be under the western envelope of the bust. Nobody would have complained about a 50 mile shift in heavy snow if the whole thing had been out to sea to begin with. This is different in that we are talking about two fundamentally different handlings of the system. Also - The Euro didn't have a storm (Juno) at all until about 72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I think Joaquin is a category four hurricane now, recon finding a stronger hurricane with 942mb pressure. An eye is forming and Joaquin has begun to turn towards the west, now moving WSW instead of SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Also - The Euro didn't have a storm (Juno) at all until about 72 hours out. Superior model is superior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 I did enjoy last nights GFS run, that would have shut the NE down big time. As far as Rays Oct troughs comments, true but Sandy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Superior model is superiorNot disagreeing...but it still has limitations at this range. That's my point. I wouldn't be confident in a forecast track until I saw a consensus for a few run cycles. We could get that today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 At least t he Bahamas will get leveled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I think Joaquin is a category four hurricane now, recon finding a stronger hurricane with 942mb pressure. An eye is forming and Joaquin has begun to turn towards the west, now moving WSW instead of SW. Starting to get that look. Recon did get a 130kt surface reading, though I suspect contamination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I did enjoy last nights GFS run, that would have shut the NE down big time. As far as Rays Oct troughs comments, true but Sandy... All the more reason to doubt it...how frequently does that happen?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Bermuda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The eye is becoming sustained on IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 All the more reason to doubt it...how frequently does that happen?? Often enough to be plausible at any given setup. Perfect storm too. That is like saying how often any month do we get hurricanes. There however is a second peak of hurricane frequency in New England and its in Oct. Often hybrids and prolific rain producers, however its not a trough that is allowing the escape this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Superior model is superior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 EYE is circular with a width of 36nm. It is open on the W-NW side of the eye wall. Intensity is up to 115 knots according to latest vortex message and pressure remains 942mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Also - The Euro didn't have a storm (Juno) at all until about 72 hours out. Exactly, at least that is how I remembered it. The euro plenty of times in the day 3-5 range has had massive shifts like the gfs does as well. I am not trolling, but just trying to figure out if the huge difference between the two models is real, or it is a smaller difference that is perceived huge by some. I know tyat both the gfs and euro in the 4 or 5 day range gave me 100 inches of snow last winter, and I think I got half that. Pojnt is they both seem to have their errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 That's the thing. It's not a wobble like Juno, it's the handling of the complexities of several features in the atmosphere. If the EC is right, it really will be something to hold your hat on....especially if you have followed it closely. This is an extremely complicated setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Is there any chance there is a blend between the Euro and the other models and Joaquin actually slams into New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Euro solution is not a lock. It shouldn't be treated as such. But if we take a look at the envelope of guidance....what has it done? It has shifted notably toward the euro solution. If the euro was still OTS but trending the other direction while the rest of guidance held firm, then I think you would have to increase the chances of the euro being wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Euro solution is not a lock. It shouldn't be treated as such. But if we take a look at the envelope of guidance....what has it done? It has shifted notably toward the euro solution. If the euro was still OTS but trending the other direction while the rest of guidance held firm, then I think you would have to increase the chances of the euro being wrong. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Is there any chance there is a blend between the Euro and the other models and Joaquin actually slams into New England? I don't think so. I mean never say never, but I think New England is pretty much out of the picture for big impacts. I don't see features in place to sling it back NW into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 EYE is circular with a width of 36nm. It is open on the W-NW side of the eye wall. Intensity is up to 115 knots according to latest vortex message and pressure remains 942mb. How often do you get a cat 4 without a clear eye (ERC excepted)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hoth I don't know for sure, but I'm sure it is rare in some form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Sometimes when a hurricane is intensifying or rapidly intensifying the eye will remain obscured for some time due to vhts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Vhts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Vhts? VHTs vortical hot towers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Another shift east in the tropical models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Another shift east in the tropical models. In other news, the sun rose this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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