downeastnc Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Really hard to tell what is going on, there does seem to be less shear in the area with the storm tops not blowing off as bad until near Hispaniola so maybe the LLC and MLC are trying to get together.... Looks like the LLC is WNW of Guadalope maybe right over Montseratt and the MLC is over or just north of Dominica, still a huge mess http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Erika will remain weak until it clears the islands and enters the Bahamas. Every model agrees to that so dont expect to see Erika get her act together just yet. The question to be asking and watching for is how will the system respond once it enters the area in which models suggest it will strengthen. Will she strengthen or not? In my experience a ragged de-stacked tropical system is very hard to get organized even in favorable conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Really hard to tell what is going on, there does seem to be less shear in the area with the storm tops not blowing off as bad until near Hispaniola so maybe the LLC and MLC are trying to get together.... Looks like the LLC is WNW of Guadalope maybe right over Montseratt and the MLC is over or just north of Dominica, still a huge mess http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles Recon found the center about 45 miles WSW of Montseratt, and you're right, a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 NHC has it possibly headed to the Carolinas as a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 NHC has it headed to the Carolinas as a hurricane. Where do you post your images from? Every image you ever post is blocked and classified as "social networking" at my work. But when I go to NHC, I can see the image fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 You can see here how far displaced the LLC is from the deep convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 You can see here how far displaced the LLC is from the deep convection. And DMIN is kicking in and the complex is starting to lose its punch so we should be able to see the LLC soon lol......really would like to at least see some storms to try fire right in the main LLC even if they get sheared. I will say the last 24 hrs has raised my eyebrows to the possibility that next Wed-Fri I might have to deal with this storm. Just had a now roof put on after Irene.....these new shingles are suppose to hold up better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Where do you post your images from? Every image you ever post is blocked and classified as "social networking" at my work. But when I go to NHC, I can see the image fine. It is a pic from the NHC's Facebook page. Guess that is why. And that sucks that your work blocks social media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 And DMIN is kicking in and the complex is starting to lose its punch so we should be able to see the LLC soon lol......really would like to at least see some storms to try fire right in the main LLC even if they get sheared. I will say the last 24 hrs has raised my eyebrows to the possibility that next Wed-Fri I might have to deal with this storm. Just had a now roof put on after Irene.....these new shingles are suppose to hold up better. yea, its tough when you have these displaced storms with convection so far removed from the llc, models have a tough time locking in on the exact track of the llc. she really needs to go as far N of hisp as possible to thread the needle and miss the worst of the shear. although erika struggling may have improved its chances of a sc/nc landfall keeping it weak until the bahamas as it strengthens riding up fl east coast, rather than bombing out now and going wide right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Exposed and elongated...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 yea, its tough when you have these displaced storms with convection so far removed from the llc, models have a tough time locking in on the exact track of the llc. she really needs to go as far N of hisp as possible to thread the needle and miss the worst of the shear. although erika struggling may have improved its chances of a sc/nc landfall keeping it weak until the bahamas as it strengthens riding up fl east coast, rather than bombing out now and going wide right. That's what I'm afraid of happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Its becoming obvious this will not miss Puerto Rico to the north and there will likely be at least some interaction with Hispaniola. NHC will probably have to shift their track a good bit south with the next advisory. If it directly hits Hispaniola it will likely be the final nail in the coffin however, there is an outside chance that convective burst could sustain the mid level center to the other side of the island and new LLC could be established once it enters a better environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Its becoming obvious this will not miss Puerto Rico to the north and there will likely be at least some interaction with Hispaniola. NHC will probably have to shift their track a good bit south with the next advisory. If it directly hits Hispaniola it will likely be the final nail in the coffin however, there is an outside chance that convective burst could sustain the mid level center to the other side of the island and new LLC could be established once it enters a better environment. This is a pretty realistic outcome IMO, in fact I am pretty surprised we haven't seen a new LLC form under the two huge convective burst the last few evenings......in fact I will be shocked if the LLC center survives the day as pitiful as it looks now......might end up being all for naught with no storms off the SE coast at all..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 It did shift a tad back to the west. But they still seem to expect it to take a slighter north turn here to skirt the coast of hisp and its happily going west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Trending back the right way although too much can still go wrong. Treasure Coast and Space Coast look to get an extended period of wind, rain, and waves if this track and intensity hold up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 This is a pretty realistic outcome IMO, in fact I am pretty surprised we haven't seen a new LLC form under the two huge convective burst the last few evenings......in fact I will be shocked if the LLC center survives the day as pitiful as it looks now......might end up being all for naught with no storms off the SE coast at all..... latest discussion from the NHC did indicate a shift in the track because the center was found further south initially due to a reformation. For the first time in a while, I've gotten that uneasy feeling with this system. Just like I posted last night, so many complicated factors with land interaction possibilities and how it staves off the hostile environment in the here and now dictates track and eventually the recurvature point. IMHO, the continued struggles with Erika increases the chances of a US landfall, whether its a weak mess or a stronger TC later in the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I get that the Space Coast is the area around Cape Canaveral. What constitutes the Treasure Coast of Florida? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I get that the Space Coast is the area around Cape Canaveral. What constitutes the Treasure Coast of Florida? http://lmgtfy.com/?q=What+is+the+treasure+coast+of+Florida%3F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I get that the Space Coast is the area around Cape Canaveral. What constitutes the Treasure Coast of Florida? It's roughly Vero Beach south to Jupiter Inlet. http://lmgtfy.com/?q=What+is+the+treasure+coast+of+Florida%3F LOL. I need to learn how do these links. I will google it however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I suppose I deserved that. Well played, Bud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I suppose I deserved that. Well played, Bud. All in fun my friend. And to be honest, I'd never heard of the "Treasure Coast" before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 All in fun my friend. And to be honest, I'd never heard of the "Treasure Coast" before. Well, then we've at least educated two people through this episode: you and me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 As long as the GFS maintains the strong mid-level vorticy Erika will have a chance to recover in the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 12 GFS takes the storm (???strength???) right of the east coast of Florida. Not sure if I ever seen a storm do that; and because of that I'm wary of the solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Storm stalls for a while within 150 miles of Charleston, at 174hrs, 1001mb like 25 miles off SC Coast. Immediate SC Coastline gets 15-20" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Watching the radar and vis loop it appears to me at least that the more organized storms over the islands are getting into the eastern side of the LLC much better than earlier and in fact the LLC might be slowing and allowing it to catch up a bit more. This also might be why the storm complex is showing signs of trying to persist a bit better than yesterdays complex which fell apart rather quickly once Dmin set in. Its hard to see the LLC since the radar is shooting over the top of any low showers around the "core" but you can see some more persistent stronger stuff on the SE corner of that rotation.....look due west of Guadalope ( the pair of islands that looks like a butterfly) that motion is SW to NE which indicates the SE corner of the LLC and the showers are filling in and the west motion seems slower to me on Vis loop.... http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 On the water vapor loop looks can be deceiving lol, the outflow looks really good but the storm appears to be really disorganized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 wth.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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