Rtd208 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Just began pouring here again, also some thunder and lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 without bill we'd have good EML advection and a higher end severe threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Just some light to moderate rain here. No big deal that it underperformed, since we got 1 inch of rain sunday night. The ground is plenty moist right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Bill can dump 30" of rain this weekend, idc but i need monday thru Wednesday clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 High temp here today of 76, so running a -1.0 monthly departure now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Rainfall last 3 days here of 0.69, 0.88 and 0.60 inches, so 3 day total of 2.17", and 6.10" since May 31st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Rainfall last 3 days here of 0.69, 0.88 and 0.60 inches, so 3 day total of 2.17", and 6.10" since May 31st. I wonder if all the brown needles on the evergreens around here will improve along with the increasing rainfall? Never had experience with evergreens turning this brown before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 ENS track Billy well NW..there's severe threat for NYC and CNE/SNE Dan Leonard @DanLeonard_wx 1h 1 hour ago ECM op is a father's day washout for NYC & BOS, but EPS says hold on a sec and sends Bill up the St. Lawrence. #hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 ENS track Billy well NW..there's severe threat for NYC and CNE/SNE Dan Leonard @DanLeonard_wx 1h 1 hour ago ECM op is a father's day washout for NYC & BOS, but EPS says hold on a sec and sends Bill up the St. Lawrence. #hope I took a look at the individuals. The spread regarding the track is huge. Some members send Bill to Detroit while others off the Carolina coast. That's just the smoothed out mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Rainfall last 3 days here of 0.69, 0.88 and 0.60 inches, so 3 day total of 2.17", and 6.10" since May 31st. Only 2.31" here since May 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 without bill we'd have good EML advection and a higher end severe threatYeah it seems like the tropical storm hurts the warmer air with big lapse rates coming in from the Southwest and Plains. Ends up more of a heavy rain and flash flooding threat than severe...could still be interesting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 I'm at 3.90" for the month so far (excluding today), which is roughly 7 times more rain than I received in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 without bill we'd have good EML advection and a higher end severe threat Those rarely work out-take the TD remnants and hope for 5 inches of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 I wonder if all the brown needles on the evergreens around here will improve along with the increasing rainfall? Never had experience with evergreens turning this brown before. You know I noticed the same thing with my evergreen in the yard...it was dry but dont think it was dry enough to have that effect...was it? Any kind of disease going around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Those rarely work out-take the TD remnants and hope for 5 inches of rainA solid EML increases the prospects of severe weather exponentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Today's Highs front from about exit 10 on north and east. Clouds in the way kinda day TEB: 85 NYC: 79 EWR: 77 LGA: 79 JFK: 77 ISP: 72 New Brunswick: 87 TTN: 90 PHL: 91 ACY: 92 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Have picked up 1.48" of rain since Sunday. 0.87" on Sunday 0.24" on Monday 0.37" on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 You know I noticed the same thing with my evergreen in the yard...it was dry but dont think it was dry enough to have that effect...was it? Any kind of disease going around? The ones around me started turning brown during May and got even worse in June. I think it's just that May was the driest on record here coming off a dry April. But there is a separate blight which has been affecting the Jack Pines especially along the Jones Beach Strip with many trees bare. Long Beach just started replanting after all the Sandy trees with salt damage were removed. Several have also turned brown recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Run to run changes on the track of Bill remnants are to be expected this far out in time. Little further south 0z Euro and less trough interaction so more steady state rather than deepening this run. We'll see how things go in later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 17, 2015 Author Share Posted June 17, 2015 Run to run changes on the track of Bill remnants are to be expected this far out in time. Little further south 0z Euro and less trough interaction so more steady state rather than deepening this run. We'll see how things go in later runs. Thats expected. We'll have an idea by Friday night. It's almost like tracking a winter storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dieselbug Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 A potentially interesting start July pattern if the MJO pulse progresses into 6-7 which is generally cooler for the East with more troughing. We'll need to see if it pushes into these phases as we get closer to the start of July.The MJO has been a big player since the record pulse in the spring which kicked off this phase of El Nino development. The EPS start to deepen the trough in the NE around June 29th as it tries for one more warm push right before then. Latest EPS feature a 120hr warm push followed by cooldown and a warm up near day 8-10. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/ http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/realtime-mjo/ Thanks for posting the link. The mjo was also a big player with the cold/snow we had in Feb and March. It should be interesting as we go into early July. Any big troughing (or ridging) could be transient, as the progressive...zonal flow we're in is sometimes tough to break down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Rain tomorrow? All day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Rain tomorrow? All day? Looks like scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon. Not a total washout, unless you believe the NAM hook, line and sinker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 The Euro jumped on board for heavy rain tomorrow. Over an inch of rain in spots. Must be some elevated instability as CAPE looks less than meh. Lift is focused on a wave of low pressure along the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 The remnant vorticy passes right over NJ, NYC and then LI on the 12z Euro. Although it gets sheared apart some as it reaches the Eastern Ohio Valley on Saturday night, dew points surge into the upper 60's, lower 70's with about 1250 J/KG of SBCAPE by early Sunday morning. In addition, the mid-level jet cranks right over the area on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Looks like it might rain tonight. Overcast here now with rain over C PA and a few pop up showers over NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Looks like it might rain tonight. Overcast here now with rain over C PA and a few pop up showers over NW NJ.I think its definitly going to rainIt went from a perfect beach day to crappy with a chilly south east wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Tomorrow is starting to look like a problem, although the focus is definitely more towards E PA and Western NJ rather than NYC/LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Another terrible whiff for the HRRR which had all of the rain dissipating before reaching Eastern PA. At this rate the rain should be into NNJ within the next hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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