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Spring Banter - Pushing up Tulips


Baroclinic Zone

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Do you have the listing? Is that 13th including both locations (so 19th without ties)? Or is that since 1943 and SCACIS is incorrect?

1884

1	1923-04-19	18.9	0
2	1912-04-19	19.1	0
3	1940-04-19	21.1	0
4	1934-04-19	21.3	0
-	1918-04-19	21.3	0
-	1914-04-19	21.3	0
7	1926-04-19	21.4	0
-	1920-04-19	21.4	0
1	1970-04-19	19.3	0
2	1978-04-19	20.6	0
3	1971-04-19	20.7	0
4	1961-04-19	21.1	0
5	1968-04-19	21.5	0
6	2015-04-19	21.6	0
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Yeah I tried looking through several fo those but couldn't find anything with good temp data.

 

I have zero doubt that the CV is warmer than other areas both to the east and west...but I'm interested in the trendline versus the absolute temps. (I.E. is the CV warming faster than surrounding areas as a whole, or is this just a BTV issue due to very local effects around the airport?)...so in order to figure that out, I was trying to compare the trendline of BTV to another reliable CV location with good temp data...but that 2nd part of the equation is difficult to come by.

 

Yeah that'd be quite the interesting study/comparison and then why.

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1884

1	1923-04-19	18.9	0
2	1912-04-19	19.1	0
3	1940-04-19	21.1	0
4	1934-04-19	21.3	0
-	1918-04-19	21.3	0
-	1914-04-19	21.3	0
7	1926-04-19	21.4	0
-	1920-04-19	21.4	0
1	1970-04-19	19.3	0
2	1978-04-19	20.6	0
3	1971-04-19	20.7	0
4	1961-04-19	21.1	0
5	1968-04-19	21.5	0
6	2015-04-19	21.6	0

 

Okay thanks! Looks like it got rid of the two early years with the missing days too, probably a good thing. And going back it looks like  I had 4 duplicate years in the SCACIS data because of leap years (oops)... will fix.

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Okay thanks! Looks like it got rid of the two early years with the missing days too, probably a good thing. And going back it looks like  I had 4 duplicate years in the SCACIS data because of leap years... will fix.

 

So yeah 6th at the airport and either 15th overall or 13th overall depending on if you remove the years with missing data.

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Yeah I tried looking through several fo those but couldn't find anything with good temp data.

I have zero doubt that the CV is warmer than other areas both to the east and west...but I'm interested in the trendline versus the absolute temps. (I.E. is the CV warming faster than surrounding areas as a whole, or is this just a BTV issue due to very local effects around the airport?)...so in order to figure that out, I was trying to compare the trendline of BTV to another reliable CV location with good temp data...but that 2nd part of the equation is difficult to come by.

Yeah I see what you're saying...even that MODIS analysis will only compare the site to other area mesonets I think to see if it's accurate or not. And so it may not find any issue with the BTV data as it likely is representative of the VT side of the lake...but we need the long term trend lines to see what the rate of change is/has been.

It could very well be that BTV is representative now of breezy VT side locations but maybe it was a colder outlier in the past with better radiational cooling...and now it's coming more in line with the Addison and Chittenden county exposed spots. But that'll still mess with the record period, even if on a day-to-day basis it seems representative.

It's not like BDL where all the surrounding stations are 2F colder in the middle of the afternoon.

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Should be some wild peas tomorrow. We are talking rip your face off type stuff. Might even file down cars to nothing but scrap metal. Houses blasted by BBs to the point of only foundations left.

If you'd actually take time from your odd vacation in NH in the worst month of the year to do it to look at soundings you'd see super crazy steep level lapse rates and deep mixing and potential for strong wind gusts right to the coast and pea to a few nickel sized hailers..In fact some modeling shows potential for 40-50 knot gusts

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If you'd actually take time from your odd vacation in NH in the worst month of the year to do it to look at soundings you'd see super crazy steep level lapse rates and deep mixing and potential for strong wind gusts right to the coast and pea to a few nickel sized hailers..In fact some modeling shows potential for 40-50 knot gusts

I love coming up here. However, it was originally to help my dad do some work, but weather FTL.

Yeah, I could see some softballs thrown in. If the houses aren't sand blasted to the ground with BBs , they'll be smashed to splinters by softballs.

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Yeah I see what you're saying...even that MODIS analysis will only compare the site to other area mesonets I think to see if it's accurate or not. And so it may not find any issue with the BTV data as it likely is representative of the VT side of the lake...but we need the long term trend lines to see what the rate of change is/has been.

It could very well be that BTV is representative now of breezy VT side locations but maybe it was a colder outlier in the past with better radiational cooling...and now it's coming more in line with the Addison and Chittenden county exposed spots. But that'll still mess with the record period, even if on a day-to-day basis it seems representative.

It's not like BDL where all the surrounding stations are 2F colder in the middle of the afternoon.

 

Exactly...if BTV used to be a colder spot relative to the rest of the windy CV, but now it isn't, then that would mean it warmed a lot more relative to its surroundings.

 

OTOH, MADIS not only showed BDL was alot warmer, but that it had previously not been a lot warmer. Sometimes MADIS will hate a site because it doesn't match nearby sites, but there is actually a legit reason for it. (I.E. it probably doesn't like MWN, but there's a reason it's so cold, lol)...in the case of BDL, it had been running pretty close with other nearby sites until all of the sudden in early 2014, it diverged rapidly away from them and became roughly 2F warmer...it then more or less has stayed there for the better part of a year now.

 

 

We essentially want to run MADIS for BTV but go back about 5-6 decades rather than 1-2 years and see how it compares. The problem is I can't find another CV location to compare it to. Peru, NY was the best one but it was on the west side of the lake. Mansfield is by far the best data close by on the east side of the lake, but clearly it is a different topographical setup...an under statement, lol. Peru had a warming trend similar to Massena, NY, while Mansfield had very small warming trend...only about 30% of MSS and about 15% of BTV.

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Not even a see text from SPC boys for tommorrow. Taunton likes scattered hailers. Low freezing heights and vigorous shortwave with good timing. Somes sun in the morning helps a bit with instability as well. Not a big deal overall but mildly interesting..

We do best when SPC has nothing . If there was see text or anything..nothing would happen..

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Just an odd note about the wind factor at BTV, on WCAX last night they had a piece about some wind damage in Bolton yesterday (blew a guy's pole barn down, KTOL type damage).  The guy they interviewed threw out the the ole' "I've lived around here all my life and it has gotten windier over the years".  So there you go, empirical evidence that things have gotten windier in the CPV and that has to be the reason BTV's temps are off.

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Not even a see text from SPC boys for tommorrow. Taunton likes scattered hailers. Low freezing heights and vigorous shortwave with good timing. Somes sun in the morning helps a bit with instability as well. Not a big deal overall but mildly interesting..

 

Don't hold your breath. They are never coming back.

 

SPC now has five categorical risks (six if you count "thunder"), beginning with "marginal" (which replaces the old "see text"). The major addition was to include "enhanced" between "slight" and "moderate"."

 

 

This is what 6/1/11 would have looked like.

 

day1-20110601-1300.gif

 

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Exactly...if BTV used to be a colder spot relative to the rest of the windy CV, but now it isn't, then that would mean it warmed a lot more relative to its surroundings.

 

OTOH, MADIS not only showed BDL was alot warmer, but that it had previously not been a lot warmer. Sometimes MADIS will hate a site because it doesn't match nearby sites, but there is actually a legit reason for it. (I.E. it probably doesn't like MWN, but there's a reason it's so cold, lol)...in the case of BDL, it had been running pretty close with other nearby sites until all of the sudden in early 2014, it diverged rapidly away from them and became roughly 2F warmer...it then more or less has stayed there for the better part of a year now.

 

 

We essentially want to run MADIS for BTV but go back about 5-6 decades rather than 1-2 years and see how it compares. The problem is I can't find another CV location to compare it to. Peru, NY was the best one but it was on the west side of the lake. Mansfield is by far the best data close by on the east side of the lake, but clearly it is a different topographical setup...an under statement, lol. Peru had a warming trend similar to Massena, NY, while Mansfield had very small warming trend...only about 30% of MSS and about 15% of BTV.

 

Try Cornwall, VT. It's a little further south and farther off the lake, but the conditions should be relatively similar. Forgot about that one.

 

CWLV1.

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Try Cornwall, VT. It's a little further south and farther off the lake, but the conditions should be relatively similar. Forgot about that one.

 

CWLV1.

 

I did actually...but didn't trust the data as it showed a slight cooling trend from 1948-2015....but the reason for this I think was because the stations mvoed from 340 feet elevation to 490 feet elevation in 1980...or so I thought. But when I checked the trendline from 1980-2015, it was still negative, lol.

 

 

So I don't know what it going on there....

 

Cornwallwinter_Temps.png

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I did actually...but didn't trust the data as it showed a slight cooling trend from 1948-2015....but the reason for this I think was because the stations mvoed from 340 feet elevation to 490 feet elevation in 1980...or so I thought. But when I checked the trendline from 1980-2015, it was still negative, lol.

 

 

So I don't know what it going on there....

 

Cornwallwinter_Temps.png

pretty obvious land use change affected BTV

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I did actually...but didn't trust the data as it showed a slight cooling trend from 1948-2015....but the reason for this I think was because the stations mvoed from 340 feet elevation to 490 feet elevation in 1980...or so I thought. But when I checked the trendline from 1980-2015, it was still negative, lol.

 

 

So I don't know what it going on there....

 

Cornwallwinter_Temps.png

 

Okay haha yeah there's a weird one.

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