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Spring Banter - Pushing up Tulips


Baroclinic Zone

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Just looked at tomorrow briefly and definitely several ingredients in place for both thunderstorms, strong winds and some hailers.  I'm actually pretty impressed with the wind profile tomorrow b/c not only do we have an inverted-v look on the soundings but winds aloft are pretty strong.  Unfortunately we'll mix down drier air mixing dews down a bit and lessening the instability potential, however, the cold pool is pretty impressive and with steep lapse rates the instability in the 3-6km range should be pretty sufficient.  

 

Also, hodos have a decent curved look to them so this could make way for the potential for maybe a couple 1''+ hail reports...actually perhaps couldn't rule out some storms trying to get stronger mesos going but lack of instability should prevent much from occurring...if we had stronger instability that could certainly be different.  

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Just looked at tomorrow briefly and definitely several ingredients in place for both thunderstorms, strong winds and some hailers.  I'm actually pretty impressed with the wind profile tomorrow b/c not only do we have an inverted-v look on the soundings but winds aloft are pretty strong.  Unfortunately we'll mix down drier air mixing dews down a bit and lessening the instability potential, however, the cold pool is pretty impressive and with steep lapse rates the instability in the 3-6km range should be pretty sufficient.  

 

Also, hodos have a decent curved look to them so this could make way for the potential for maybe a couple 1''+ hail reports...actually perhaps couldn't rule out some storms trying to get stronger mesos going but lack of instability should prevent much from occurring...if we had stronger instability that could certainly be different.  

 

Not enough instability for any large hail. Strong gusty winds main threat, and maybe some small hail only because of the low freezing height.

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Not enough instability for any large hail. Strong gusty winds main threat, and maybe some small hail only because of the low freezing height.

 

There were plenty of times back in 2008 we had instability at or slightly less than 1000 J/KG and still was able to generate some larger hail.  Normally that would be the case but there should be some pretty intense updrafts tomorrow given degree of shear values and also potential for turning winds with height.  

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There were plenty of times back in 2008 we had instability at or slightly less than 1000 J/KG and still was able to generate some larger hail.  Normally that would be the case but there should be some pretty intense updrafts tomorrow given degree of shear values and also potential for turning winds with height.  

 

Yeah but we're talking like <500 J/KG tomorrow. I agree on the small hail and gusty winds, but I was just looking at the NAM sounding for Hartford tomorrow and nothing about it looks like large hail to me.

 

In fact almost looks more like strong gusty showers or a fine line sounding.

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Yeah but we're talking like <500 J/KG tomorrow. I agree on the small hail and gusty winds, but I was just looking at the NAM sounding for Hartford tomorrow and nothing about it looks like large hail to me.

 

In fact almost looks more like strong gusty showers or a fine line sounding.

 

I wouldn't expect any large hail reports...but wouldn't be surprised if we saw one or two.  But I agree...small hailers and gusty winds will be way more common.  

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