Nittany88 Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Yeah something is going on there. It's gotta be the overnight lows. The wind there never goes calm. Like ever. As soon as you go east into the mountains and the sites that radiate well and it's coldest start to the year ever. In the summer BTV can actually have a night with a low near 80F with 20kts out of the south...the stuff Blizz dreams about at BDL. Where it's 80/73 at 2am while MPV/MVL are 67/67. I should see what BTV WFO thinks about it. But that is representative of the entire central Champlain Valley, not just the airfield. The temperature readings always fit in well with the other obs in the immediate CPV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 What does MADIS (?) say about BTV? Isn't there that site that shows if it thinks it's running hot or cold relative to it's surroundings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 But that is representative of the entire central Champlain Valley, not just the airfield. Yeah to be honest, it's obs really aren't much different than anything in Addison County up through the Islands. They do "match" most of the time with other local areas. That's why I was wondering if some QC algorithm would be able to find anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 I'll take it. It does have a longer period of record than any other in the BTV CWA (by quite a bit) so that could be part of it at least locally. That is actually the ranking of only the International airport site...not the whole length of record back to the late 1800s. The trendline on the airport site is definitely out of whack with the rest of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Yeah to be honest, it's obs really aren't much different than anything in Addison County up through the Islands. They do "match" most of the time with other local areas. That's why I was wondering if some QC algorithm would be able to find anything. My guess is the airport site used to radiate much better, and now it doesn't. So it would "match" areas that don't radiate well in the CV, but what we are looking for is changes in the behavior of temperatures there. The biggest change there are low temperatures, which gives more reason to believe that radiating at night is the biggest change. But again, you'd really have to dig into the nittygritty of all the variables to conclusively say something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 That seems a little too dramatic. If we applied that rule of thumb to Lenox, MA latitude (lets round it up to 42.5° N and use 1.2K elevation for simplicity), that would put me in the same climate as sea level at 45.5° N (Montreal, QB) and 2.2K in S VT (~43° N) in the same climate as about 48.5° N (International Falls, MN). I'm not quite as cold as Montreal and S VT is not as cold as International Falls. While very general and based on my personal observation and not necessarily scientific data, my rule of thumb has always been that for every 1000' of elevation gain in the E US, it would be the equivalent of gaining 1.5° of latitude. So for instance at my latitude, this rule would put me in roughly the same climate as sea level at 44° N or about Brunswick, ME or Middlebury, VT. This, of course, ignores things like proximity to a water body, mountains, urban heat islands, etc., so it's overly simplistic. But alas, if we apply it to 2.2K in S VT, you'd get a climate that's roughly equivalent to sea level somewhere between 46 and 47° N, which is N ME latitude. That plateau likely has a temperature profile that is more like Caribou or Presque Isle, ME than International Falls, MN. We could argue about which rule is better, but without some real hard data it will be hard to prove which one is best. These rules work better for temperatures than for precipitation since the latter will be greater in the higher elevations. Have to agree that something like 600' might be a better one-degree adjustment than the 400' I quoted. However, the Int.Falls comparison is inapt for two reasons. First is its far-inland location gives it an extreme continental climate, 2nd is that it's nearly 1200' ASL. That's why I chose Q.C., which is on tidewater. I'd also guess that CAR/PQI are considerably colder in winter than the S.VT plateau, but may get a bit less snowfall. Hard to judge snowpack-holding capacity, as central Aroostook is mainly potato land or abandoned farmland with low evergreen component. Someplace in the woods west of Asland would make more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 My guess is the airport site used to radiate much better, and now it doesn't. So it would "match" areas that don't radiate well in the CV, but what we are looking for is changes in the behavior of temperatures there. The biggest change there are low temperatures, which gives more reason to believe that radiating at night is the biggest change. But again, you'd really have to dig into the nittygritty of all the variables to conclusively say something. Oh for sure its definitely the radiating. We just can't do it anymore. It's been a gradual rise in temperatures. The biggest break in temperatures was in the 1940's when the temps dropped because of the site move. But after that it's been a steady increase. However I don't think its because of any malfunction or moving of the ASOS. Something either natural, or UHI, or even some side effect of global warming (natural or not) that has caused us not to radiate anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 My guess is the airport site used to radiate much better, and now it doesn't. So it would "match" areas that don't radiate well in the CV, but what we are looking for is changes in the behavior of temperatures there. The biggest change there are low temperatures, which gives more reason to believe that radiating at night is the biggest change. But again, you'd really have to dig into the nittygritty of all the variables to conclusively say something. What was that site you guys used to find that BDL was off by like 2 degrees at times? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Oh for sure its definitely the radiating. We just can't do it anymore. It's been a gradual rise in temperatures. The biggest break in temperatures was in the 1940's when the temps dropped because of the site move. But after that it's been a steady increase. However I don't think its because of any malfunction or moving of the ASOS. Something either natural, or UHI, or even some side effect of global warming (natural or not) that has caused us not to radiate anymore. Did BTV get coldest March on record in 2014? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 What was that site you guys used to find that BDL was off by like 2 degrees at times? MADIS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 That is actually the ranking of only the International airport site...not the whole length of record back to the late 1800s. The trendline on the airport site is definitely out of whack with the rest of the region. Hmm interesting, although actually pulling the data from SCACIS, I get that its the 7th and actually tied for 6th. Airport Data: 1 19.3 1970-01-01 through 1970-04-19 0 2 20.6 1978-01-01 through 1978-04-19 0 3 20.7 1971-01-01 through 1971-04-19 0 4 21.1 1961-01-01 through 1961-04-19 0 5 21.2 1968-01-01 through 1968-04-18 0 6 21.6 1963-01-01 through 1963-04-19 0 7 21.6 2015-01-01 through 2015-04-19 0 It would be 10th based off the previous location at UVM: UVM data: 1 18.9 1923-01-01 through 1923-04-19 0 2 18.9 1912-01-01 through 1912-04-18 0 3 20.6 1885-01-01 through 1885-04-19 16 4 20.9 1940-01-01 through 1940-04-18 0 5 21.1 1920-01-01 through 1920-04-18 0 6 21.3 1914-01-01 through 1914-04-19 0 7 21.3 1918-01-01 through 1918-04-19 0 8 21.3 1934-01-01 through 1934-04-19 0 9 21.4 1926-01-01 through 1926-04-19 0 10 21.7 1888-01-01 through 1888-04-18 9 That all being said though, using the entire POR it looks like it would be tied for 15th since 1884 and tied for 6th at the airport (since 1943). If I was at work I could just use the ThreadEX of the site and see the whole thing together. EDITED to remove duplicates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Did BTV get coldest March on record in 2014? 2nd I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Flood warning on the Kennebec No surprise there - Augusta's waterfront parking lots get washed off about 3 years in 4. My guess is 16-17' in Augusta, with 12' being flood stage. Minor issues only at 4' above flood. (For comparison, 1987 saw a 34.5' level.) No donner und blitzen at my place, just rain, w/o slush, pingers. TS season seems to get shorter each year here; last year July/August had their share, but other than those two my TS season was a rumble or two on May 30. Biggest precip event since the Jan blizzard, which had 2.17" LE. Doubt we reach that amount in this storm. Also hope it doesn't blow out the woods roads from Rockwood to Pittston Farm, where I'm traveling Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 No surprise there - Augusta's waterfront parking lots get washed off about 3 years in 4. My guess is 16-17' in Augusta, with 12' being flood stage. Minor issues only at 4' above flood. (For comparison, 1987 saw a 34.5' level.) No donner und blitzen at my place, just rain, w/o slush, pingers. TS season seems to get shorter each year here; last year July/August had their share, but other than those two my TS season was a rumble or two on May 30. Biggest precip event since the Jan blizzard, which had 2.17" LE. Doubt we reach that amount in this storm. Also hope it doesn't blow out the woods roads from Rockwood to Pittston Farm, where I'm traveling Thursday. 87 was the biggie, The andoross was a bit high here, May hit minimal flood stage but that would be reserved to river road in auburn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Oh for sure its definitely the radiating. We just can't do it anymore. It's been a gradual rise in temperatures. The biggest break in temperatures was in the 1940's when the temps dropped because of the site move. But after that it's been a steady increase. However I don't think its because of any malfunction or moving of the ASOS. Something either natural, or UHI, or even some side effect of global warming (natural or not) that has caused us not to radiate anymore. Yeah it is some local effect IMHO. The cause is something that would be an interesting project. But I just quickly compared BTV to Massena, NY...I started both at 1948 since the MSS site started in 1948 even though BTV moved a few years ealier...just to keep an even comparison of the timeline. MSS warmed at an average of 0.23F per decade in the December-March period (4 month mean). BTV warmed at an average of 0.47F per decade. So basically twice as fast as MSS and most of the divergence appears to be after 1990. I double checked the Peru, NY coop just to get a closer comparison, and they had a trendline of 0.28F per decade...which is much closer to the MSS trendline than BTV. A higher site like the Mansfield coop only had a 0.07F warming trend per decade. So I think it may be localized to the airport site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Hmm interesting, although actually pulling the data from SCACIS, I get that its the 8th and actually tied for 6th. 1 19.3 1970-01-01 through 1970-04-19 0 2 20.6 1978-01-01 through 1978-04-19 0 3 20.7 1971-01-01 through 1971-04-19 0 4 21.1 1961-01-01 through 1961-04-19 0 5 21.2 1968-01-01 through 1968-04-18 0 6 21.6 1963-01-01 through 1963-04-19 0 7 21.6 1968-01-02 through 1968-04-19 0 8 21.6 2015-01-01 through 2015-04-19 0 I think there might be an issue with how that site that the map is from is pulling the data. It would be 13th based off the previous location at UVM: 1 18.9 1923-01-01 through 1923-04-19 0 2 18.9 1912-01-01 through 1912-04-18 0 3 19.1 1912-01-02 through 1912-04-19 0 4 20.6 1885-01-01 through 1885-04-19 16 5 20.9 1940-01-01 through 1940-04-18 0 6 21.1 1920-01-01 through 1920-04-18 0 7 21.2 1940-01-02 through 1940-04-19 0 8 21.3 1914-01-01 through 1914-04-19 0 9 21.3 1918-01-01 through 1918-04-19 0 10 21.3 1934-01-01 through 1934-04-19 0 11 21.3 1920-01-02 through 1920-04-19 0 12 21.4 1926-01-01 through 1926-04-19 0 13 21.7 1888-01-01 through 1888-04-18 9 That all being said though, using the entire POR it looks like it would be 19th since 1884 and tied for 6th at the airport (since 1943). If I was at work I could just use the ThreadEX of the site and see the whole thing together. Hmmm..I must have screwed up somewhere then, and not the site ginxy posted. But even taking into account the site move, I still think there is clear evidence of a divergence at BTV versus other stations in the region. The site move in 1943 definitely explains several spots in the rankings, but then we are still left with a difference after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Yeah it is some local effect IMHO. The cause is something that would be an interesting project. But I just quickly compared BTV to Massena, NY...I started both at 1948 since the MSS site started in 1948 even though BTV moved a few years ealier...just to keep an even comparison of the timeline. MSS warmed at an average of 0.23F per decade in the December-March period (4 month mean). BTV warmed at an average of 0.47F per decade. So basically twice as fast as MSS and most of the divergence appears to be after 1990. I double checked the Peru, NY coop just to get a closer comparison, and they had a trendline of 0.28F per decade...which is much closer to the MSS trendline than BTV. A higher site like the Mansfield coop only had a 0.07F warming trend per decade. So I think it may be localized to the airport site. Good stuff. We do notice here that the NY side of the Champlain Valley can radiate much better than the Vermont side, for whatever reason, could be the orientation of the valley, the Vermont side is more prone to southerly winds. So BTV and its side along with all the mesonet sites can on some occasions be significantly warmer than say PBG and the NY side of the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Hmmm..I must have screwed up somewhere then, and not the site ginxy posted. But even taking into account the site move, I still think there is clear evidence of a divergence at BTV versus other stations in the region. The site move in 1943 definitely explains several spots in the rankings, but then we are still left with a difference after that. Or maybe I did, that was just something quick off the SCACIS site (http://scacis.rcc-acis.org/). But yeah I agree that there is a divergence for BTV and the Vermont Champlain Valley (because those readings are supported) from the rest of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Or maybe I did, that was just something quick off the SCACIS site (http://scacis.rcc-acis.org/). But yeah I agree that there is a divergence for BTV and the Vermont Champlain Valley (because those readings are supported) from the rest of the area. Is there a good coop site within the VT side of the CV? I couldn't find a good one with solid temp data back to the 1940s. That's why I used Peru. I am wondering if their trendline would be closer to BTV versus the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 1.42" total. VP2 still matches the manual gauge to within .02" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Is there a good coop site within the VT side of the CV? I couldn't find a good one. That's why I used Peru. I am wondering if their trendline would be closer to BTV versus the others. Or maybe I did, that was just something quick off the SCACIS site (http://scacis.rcc-acis.org/). But yeah I agree that there is a divergence for BTV and the Vermont Champlain Valley (because those readings are supported) from the rest of the area. climod has it as 13, its just the ties that mess with the output http://climodtest.nrcc.cornell.edu/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 What was that site you guys used to find that BDL was off by like 2 degrees at times? Are you talking about this site? Here's the link for BTV: http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/KBTV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Is there a good coop site within the VT side of the CV? I couldn't find a good one with solid temp data back to the 1940s. That's why I used Peru. I am wondering if their trendline would be closer to BTV versus the others. I'd have to check on the periods of record when I get into the office. I think Essex Junction (EXJV1) might be the best. That was a pretty good one, although we just lost it in the past few years. And Essex Junction is just a few miles from the airport. We've also got Salisbury, but I don't know about that POR offhand. We actually don't have many because of the proximity to the airport and the multitude of mesonet sites, although we just added Vergennes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Is there a good coop site within the VT side of the CV? I couldn't find a good one with solid temp data back to the 1940s. That's why I used Peru. I am wondering if their trendline would be closer to BTV versus the others. http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/C8637 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/C8637 I don't see a period of record on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 I'd have to check on the periods of record when I get into the office. I think Essex Junction (EXJV1) might be the best. That was a pretty good one, although we just lost it in the past few years. And Essex Junction is just a few miles from the airport. We've also got Salisbury, but I don't know about that POR offhand. We actually don't have many because of the proximity to the airport and the multitude of mesonet sites, although we just added Vergennes. Nevermind I think EXJV1 started in 1971. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 I don't see a period of record on there. Just 52 weeks, yea there is no close Coop, but a bunch of Mesonets if someone took the time to check from Jan 1 to April 19th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 I'd have to check on the periods of record when I get into the office. I think Essex Junction (EXJV1) might be the best. That was a pretty good one, although we just lost it in the past few years. And Essex Junction is just a few miles from the airport. We've also got Salisbury, but I don't know about that POR offhand. We actually don't have many because of the proximity to the airport and the multitude of mesonet sites, although we just added Vergennes. Yeah I tried looking through several fo those but couldn't find anything with good temp data. I have zero doubt that the CV is warmer than other areas both to the east and west...but I'm interested in the trendline versus the absolute temps. (I.E. is the CV warming faster than surrounding areas as a whole, or is this just a BTV issue due to very local effects around the airport?)...so in order to figure that out, I was trying to compare the trendline of BTV to another reliable CV location with good temp data...but that 2nd part of the equation is difficult to come by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 climod has it as 13, its just the ties that mess with the output http://climodtest.nrcc.cornell.edu/ Do you have the listing? Is that 13th including both locations (so 19th without ties)? Or is that since 1943 and SCACIS is incorrect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Just 52 weeks, yea there is no close Coop, but a bunch of Mesonets if someone took the time to check from Jan 1 to April 19th I'm interested in the trendline...not absolute temps. KBTV could match that local mesonet site very well in 2015....but that information doesn't tell me if that mesonet site has warmed at the same rate as KBTV. KBTV could have ran 0.5F colder than that site 20 years ago...but we don't have that information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.