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TheSnowman

Anafrontal Thumpul Discussion 3/5

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I need a lousy.25 to join the mile high club. Have the Patron chilin, if I have to stay up to 2 am , oh well.

 

GYX at 101.2" after last night. Bottles of wine flow like water up here.

 

But maybe tonight I celebrate with Maine Beer Company's Lunch.

 

We're on the outside looking in for this one. All I could muster was some lousy slight chance PoP for ASH.

 

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Airglow, any thoughts of redoing the map based on 18z compendium?

Several. Not going to change anything until I see the 0z RGEM/GFS but if they are similar to their 18z runs we'll be going up.

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RAP actually dries BOS out below 800 mb between 09z and 15z tomorrow. Not what you're looking for unless you expect all the 06-12z QPF to fall between 06 and 09z.

 

Now you're introducing a lot of caveats to the forecast. Not ideal when bumping up totals and expanding headlines.

 

 

 

Yeah that is exactly what I would be worried about...though the RAP is also definitely a bit south of the GFS/RGEM, so not surprised it looks pretty putrid on the soundings.

 

Either way...for the pike region here down south about 25-30 miles I'm still Bruce Willis in Die Hard 2. Really want to see one more tick north at 00z.

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Problem with waiting for the 0Zs is that most people will be asleep after having seen the meager advisories or lack thereof, only to awake to a new regime...  Might reek havoc with the morning plans, etc... or not.. but should at least be a consideration.  Upton's playing it the same way as Box; middletown and shelton dont even have an advisory...  Those areas might have to go from nothing to a warning.

 

Or the forecast might be right.

 

Ideally you have an evening shift that is ready to pull the trigger as soon as models start coming in. You can have a product out for the 10 PM broadcasts then.

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Yeah that is exactly what I would be worried about...though the RAP is also definitely a bit south of the GFS/RGEM, so not surprised it looks pretty putrid on the soundings.

 

Either way...for the pike region here down south about 25-30 miles I'm still Bruce Willis in Die Hard 2. Really want to see one more tick north at 00z.

 

18z NAM does the same thing for what it's worth. Not a pretty look on the north side.

 

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Problem with waiting for the 0Zs is that most people will be asleep after having seen the meager advisories or lack thereof, only to awake to a new regime... Might reek havoc with the morning plans, etc... or not.. but should at least be a consideration. Upton's playing it the same way as Box; middletown and shelton dont even have an advisory... Those areas might have to go from nothing to a warning.

That's my take. If things tick north or even hold serve at 0z it's going to be too late to issue WWA or WWW for Some locals Across the southern tier.

Edit: maybe the evening shift will expand just in time for tonight's broadcasts.

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BOX telling us that they hear us (FB):

 

It's how you have to play things right now. I know people hate the uncertainty card, but we won't have a good idea about how things are going until late this evening.

 

At least this way BOX let's the media know that they can/should let people know that they shouldn't be surprised if there is more snow than forecast tomorrow morning.

 

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BOX telling us that they hear us (FB):

 

1900783_770458993048474_4467350403695167

 

I dunno if it says "we hear you" so much as "we think a good bit of what falls is rain TBH"

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That's my take. If things tick north or even hold serve at 0z it's going to be too late to issue WWA or WWW for Some locals Across the southern tier.

 

Right, but what if 00z ticks south?

 

Then you issue warnings, cancel school, close offices, and nothing ends up happening. There is a cost there too.

 

It's not as simple as always hedging to the snowier solution.

 

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I wouldn't bet the farm on the WFO wholesale changing the forecast based on 18z.

 

If 00z continues the north wobbles, then you'll see changes. This wouldn't be the first happy hour that disappointed come game time.

By the time of the 00z GFS, most will have gone to bed.  Any update then doesn't help them in the AM when they might need to get up earlier to shovel, etc., when they thought it would be no big deal.

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Their "most likely scenario" map doesn't match their forecast map.

 

It doesn't? Looks fine to me, they did stitch in OKX's and ALY's forecasts.

 

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Well this is it for about 10 days. So let's maximize this one..becuase there's nothing left to track or talk about except temps and snowpack resistance after tomorrow for the better part of a week or more.

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Right, but what if 00z ticks south?

Then you issue warnings, cancel school, close offices, and nothing ends up happening. There is a cost there too.

It's not as simple as always hedging to the snowier solution.

Valid points. But no one should be closing schools and offices for WWA. we aren't Atlanta. But putting up WWA does let the public know its going to snow so allow more time in the morning.

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By the time of the 00z GFS, most will have gone to bed.  Any update then doesn't help them in the AM when they might need to get up earlier to shovel, etc., when they thought it would be no big deal.

 

See my post above. Not as easy as firing out headlines just to get the word out if 00z ticks south again.

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Well this is it for about 10 days. So let's maximize this one..becuase there's nothing left to track or talk about except temps and snowpack resistance after tomorrow for the better part of a week or more.

Vacation time and skiing is all I am interested in but wait, there's Sunday....

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By the time of the 00z GFS, most will have gone to bed.  Any update then doesn't help them in the AM when they might need to get up earlier to shovel, etc., when they thought it would be no big deal.

 

 

Lets put it this way, would you feel comfortable forecasting larger amounts of snow with all the red flags in this event?

 

It's nice that the 18z models took a hike north, but it is hardly the most foolproof evidence of slamming down advisories to the pike.

 

People don't like it, but sometimes the reality is that you have a lot of uncertainty this close in. You can tell people what you think is the most likely but then add in the caveat that this could come north still and give more snow.

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New HRRR(21z) just went 100 miles south of the 20z run, not sure what the hell it's seeing but that's a huge shift, it had been ticking north every run since it came into range until now.

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It doesn't? Looks fine to me, they did stitch in OKX's and ALY's forecasts.

 

 

The map they are using in that comparison is one update out of date.  They have S RI at 3-4 on the current snowfall total map issued at 4pm, whereas that map is at 4-6.

 

BTW, I think this trend flatters to deceive and am keeping my feet firmly on the ground.  Glad that those feet are as far south as possible though.

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Valid points. But no one should be closing schools and offices for WWA. we aren't Atlanta. But putting up WWA does let the public know its going to snow so allow more time in the morning.

 

It's been a long 30-40 days for a lot of people in SNE, snow fatigue and all.

 

I know even up here schools delay based on 4 inches of snow forecast, because of liability reasons. We just issue the forecasts, but a lot of decisions are made based on those forecasts. So we have to provide our best educated guess, most likely scenario. We can't shift based on model whims like we can do on this message board.

 

Ryan can start honking on here because of an 18z run, but he can't necessarily start wildly updating all of his station's products based on it.

 

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Right, but what if 00z ticks south?

 

Then you issue warnings, cancel school, close offices, and nothing ends up happening. There is a cost there too.

 

It's not as simple as always hedging to the snowier solution.

 

I think the inclination is to look at new each model run, especially in this time frame, as zeroing in on what will be the eventual solution, especially when there is unanimity among the model regime.  Dont the odds of reversing field decrease as we approach game time?  Not always, of course, but if we cant figure on the model depictions as becoming increasingly more likely as we approach game time, then how on earth can we even use them 24 hrs or more ahead of time...  ?

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See my post above. Not as easy as firing out headlines just to get the word out if 00z ticks south again.

And to be clear, I'm specifically talking about the southern CT counties in Upton's coverage area.

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21z RAP jumped 40-50 miles south as well. Hopefully a blip run from both, but not something you wanted to see if you were hoping for higher totals.

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The map they are using in that comparison is one update out of date.  They have S RI at 3-4 on the current snowfall total map issued at 4pm, whereas that map is at 4-6.

 

BTW, I think this trend flatters to deceive and am keeping my feet firmly on the ground.  Glad that those feet are as far south as possible though.

 

I see what you are saying now. In reality that's probably just noise. 3.9 inches versus 4.0 inches. Social media desk was probably making that graphic as the short term guy was still tweaking grids.

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Mesos blow. Put those away until they have a discernible trend. Too many people rub themselves raw over those stupid runs.

With that, that edge if the precip shield near the pike is very troublesome. NW flow at 850 isn't usually a good thing. You'd have to have very strong mid level frontogenesis above that to offset it. I have trouble seeing 3-4 at BOS. Clearly I hope/want to be wrong.

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For the same reasons pros were bullish PDay they are bearish today. Take note.

At this point it's virtually Nowcast. Let's see what happens.

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