AlaskaETC Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yeah, cause NAM is a little too amped for us attm. But, it's the NAM...but we're still gonna have the usual panickers. To be fair, it did sniff out the north trend with the screwjob storm a few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Wow it's quite a bit warmer lol. I cant say that NAM is wrong I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 And right on cue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Its the same 4-5 posters...classic panic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 That NYC poster told me we were good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 And right on cue... It's tough to get too concerned yet with the GFS/EURO on our side. Didn't the NAM do pretty poorly with our 2 inch event last week even within 24-36 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I seem to recall that the NAM was one of the last to join the party for the 2/21 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 To be fair, it did sniff out the north trend with the screwjob storm a few weeks ago. Oh yeah? I didn't know this was a "trend". One run, huh? Because this morning it was a decent hit and was south. Now it's a 100 miles or so north and it's a trend. Cool. Good thing I know the NAM is a horrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The closest snow is North of Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 That NYC poster told me we were good! Reverse psychology or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 We just couldn't know yet. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 When the nam shows this inside of 48 hours with global support it's time to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Oh well.........Ji didn't want this one anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Oh yeah? I didn't know this was a "trend". One run, huh? Because this morning it was a decent hit and was south. Now it's a 100 miles or so north and it's a trend. Cool. Good thing I know the NAM is a horrible model. There's been a northerly trend all season basically with most storms, I'm just saying. When the NAM did this with the screwjob storm a few days out, most people dismissed it, but it held and other models followed. No need to get agressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The awful posters don't even know how awful they are....every run even good ones...they make awful posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 There's been a northerly trend all season basically with most storms, I'm just saying. When the NAM did this with the screwjob storm a few days out, most people dismissed it, but it held and other models followed. No need to get agressive... its not really a "trend" though, which is what Randy was getting at. Sure, if the GFS follows, and then the entire 00z suite, you can come back tomorrow and call it a trend. Until then, its the NAM being the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 When the nam shows this inside of 48 hours with global support it's time to worry. So you're saying we shouldn't worry? Good. I was going to panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 There's been a northerly trend all season basically with most storms, I'm just saying. When the NAM did this with the screwjob storm a few days out, most people dismissed it, but it held and other models followed. No need to get agressive... Not 100 mile jumps, it's hardly a trend, just one data point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 When one model stands alone, it's almost always wrong. Having said that, I said yesterday that cold air doesn't trend south, and it doesn't. If it was going to trend, it could only trend north, IMO. We still have a ton of models on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 There's been a northerly trend all season basically with most storms, I'm just saying. When the NAM did this with the screwjob storm a few days out, most people dismissed it, but it held and other models followed. No need to get agressive... You said the NAM is sniffing out a northern trend (because it was right with a storm a month ago). I just disputed that by saying one run of a model isn't a trend. What if it goes back to the 12z look tonight..then what trend is that? No need to be hypersensitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 its not really a "trend" though, which is what Randy was getting at. Sure, if the GFS follows, and then the entire 00z suite, you can come back tomorrow and call it a trend. Until then, its the NAM being the NAM. No need to get aggressive, geez. This post is the equivalent of a bloody beatdown! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 And I agree with others.........having the model that was the farthest north and amped all along move a bit more north isn't a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 When one model stands alone, it's almost always wrong. Having said that, I said yesterday that cold air doesn't trend south, and it doesn't. If it was going to trend, it could only trend north, IMO. We still have a ton of models on our side. The NAM has been on a heater lately. But our winter heater might be more powerful. Nothing is locked in from a few days out though despite model agreement.. one of the great falsehoods of this place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 There's been a northerly trend all season basically with most storms, I'm just saying. When the NAM did this with the screwjob storm a few days out, most people dismissed it, but it held and other models followed. No need to get agressive... Agreed. There were a few storms earlier this season - the screwjob storm is one example - where the NAM was the first to pick up on a shift, and did so at this same 2-3 days range (typically, Friday before a Monday). Very different set ups, however. Until we see where other guidance comes in between now and 12z it's clearly not wise to put eggs in the NAM basket - but nor is it possible to say 'chuck it out' with absolute conviction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 No need to get aggressive, geez. This post is the equivalent of a bloody beatdown! you know how i roll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 No need to get aggressive, geez. This post is the equivalent of a bloody beatdown! Everyone jumped on him at the same time. It kinda sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The NAM has been on a heater lately. But our winter heater might be more powerful. Nothing is locked in from a few days out though despite model agreement.. one of the great falsehoods of this place. we just cant know yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 To be fair, it did sniff out the north trend with the screwjob storm a few weeks ago. To be fair, a lot of global ensemble members showed a cluster of more north/west tracks for that event, so it wasn't entirely a huge surprise. I recall Bob Chill after the 18Z GEFS the Thursday before that storm saying "don't look at the 18Z ensembles!", which were then showing several too far north tracks. It raised a lot of eyebrows. The NAM then went north at 00Z that evening as did every other model...but even at 18Z and 12Z, I recall, things were iffy and borderline for us even as they looked good at the time. In this case, I don't know if we have the same clustering of ensemble members like that. This is quite a huge shift by the NAM, whereas the other storm at the beginning of February was not quite so much (or at least compared to the envelope and cluster of possible solutions?). So, different scenario. I'm not saying the NAM is wrong, as it hasn't occurred yet. It raises some flag of concern, but as others have said, let's see what the globals show. I sure hope it's completely out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yawn. I'd love to get Matt's take on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 we just cant know yet exactly.. well, i thought 12z today was the marker initially.. maybe I was off by a suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.