dmillz25 Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 What is the el niño projected to be in strength? Never got an answer to this btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 It's an if then proposition until we get past the current spring forecast barrier in early June. If this strong WWB pattern continues trough May into June, then we'll probably be looking at a strong El Nino event. El Nino forecasts have better skill once we get into June than they do during the spring. So it's better to wait another month or so before trying to guess the final strength for later this year. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/carl/weather/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.png I hope not I hope it stays moderate. But a strong el niño will help the drought in California Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 I hope not I hope it stays moderate. But a strong el niño will help the drought in California Yeah, California generally does better in the cold season precipitation department with a stronger event than a weak to moderate one. In another month or so we should have a better idea on the ultimate strength potential beyond the borderline moderate conditions this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 It's better for California if the Nino is east based rather than west based as the last two have been. An east based Nino better focuses the STJ into California and the Southwest, while west based ones tend to favor the big PNA ridge instead, and a weaker STJ over those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 What are the snow averages here with weak, moderate, and strong el niño? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 It's better for California if the Nino is east based rather than west based as the last two have been. An east based Nino better focuses the STJ into California and the Southwest, while west based ones tend to favor the big PNA ridge instead, and a weaker STJ over those areas. That's right. More west based events were less robust for California rainy seasons than central or east centered ones. 2009-10 was ok the further south you went but Northern California was still dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 What are the snow averages here with weak, moderate, and strong el niño? el nino winters rated by the mei index......the seven strongest have no years over 30"... winter.....max mei date D/J mei.....max oni date DJF oni.....snowfall.....big snow ave temp 1982-83...3.038 F/M...2.689..........2.2 NDJ..........2.2..........27.2".....17.6".....37.9 1997-98...3.004 J/A....2.481..........2.4 OND.........2.2...........5.5".......5.0".....39.6 1991-92...2.271 M/A...1.751..........1.6 DJF..........1.6..........12.6".......6.2".....37.2 1986-87...2.131 A/M...1.235..........1.3 JFM..........1.2..........23.1".......8.1".....34.8 1992-93...1.992 A/M...0.700..........0.6 MAM.........0.2..........24.5".....10.6".....35.0 1987-88...1.956 J/A....1.089..........1.6 ASO.........0.8.........19.1".......5.7".....34.7 1972-73...1.944 N/D...1.705..........2.1 OND.........1.8............2.8".......1.8".....35.8 2009-10...1.517 J/F....1.148..........1.6 NDJ..........1.6..........51.4".....20.9".....33.8 1965-66...1.477 J/A....1.322..........1.9 OND.........1.4..........21.4".......6.8".....35.9 1957-58...1.474 D/J....1.474..........1.8 NDJ..........1.8..........44.7".....11.8".....33.3 1994-95...1.434 S/O...1.197..........1.2 NDJ..........1.0..........11.8".....10.8".....37.1 2006-07...1.290 O/N...0.970..........1.0 OND.........0.7..........12.4".......5.5".....36.5 2002-03...1.180 D/J....1.180..........1.3 OND.........1.1..........49.3".....19.8".....31.2 1976-77...1.026 A/S...0.517..........0.8 OND.........0.6..........24.5".......5.2".....28.5 2004-05...1.018 F/M...0.296.........0.7 OND.........0.6..........41.0".....13.8".....35.4 1979-80...1.015 N/D...0.694.........0.6 NDJ..........0.5..........12.8".......4.6".....35.4 1977-78...1.007 S/O...0.779.........0.8 NDJ..........0.7..........50.7".....17.7".....30.3 2014-15...0.932 A/M...0.406.........0.7 NDJ..........0.6..........50.3".......9.8".....31.7 1989-90...0.916 F/M...0.232........-0.1 NDJ.........-0.1..........13.4".......4.7".....35.7 1968-69...0.866 J/F....0.689.........1.1 DJF..........1.1...........30.2".....15.3".....32.9 1963-64...0.856 D/J....0.856.........1.4 OND.........1.1...........44.7".....12.5".....33.3 1951-52...0.847 J/A....0.408.........1.2 SON.........0.6..........19.7".......5.5".....37.0 1958-59...0.804 J/F....0.577.........0.6 NDJ..........0.6..........13.0".......5.5".....30.9 1969-70...0.645 O/N...0.357.........0.8 NDJ.........0.6..........25.6".......6.8".....30.5 1978-79...0.598 D/J....0.598........-0.1 NDJ........-0.1..........27.2".....12.7".....32.7 2003-04...0.519 O/N...0.304.........0.3 NDJ.........0.3..........42.6".....14.0".....32.4 1990-91...0.393 F/M...0.308.........0.4 NDJ.........0.3..........24.9".......8.9".....39.2 1952-53...0.382 J/F....0.022.........0.7 MAM........0.5..........15.1".......4.2".....38.1 1993-94...0.334 D/J....0.334.........0.1 NDJ..........0.1..........53.4".....12.8".....31.2 1953-54...0.314 N/D..-0.049.........0.8 OND.........0.7..........15.8".......7.9".....37.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 el nino winters rated by the mei index......the seven strongest have no years over 30"... winter.....max mei date D/J mei.....max oni date DJF oni.....snowfall.....big snow ave temp 1982-83...3.038 F/M...2.689..........2.2 NDJ..........2.2..........27.2".....17.6".....37.9 1997-98...3.004 J/A....2.481..........2.4 OND.........2.2...........5.5".......5.0".....39.6 1991-92...2.271 M/A...1.751..........1.6 DJF..........1.6..........12.6".......6.2".....37.2 1986-87...2.131 A/M...1.235..........1.3 JFM..........1.2..........23.1".......8.1".....34.8 1992-93...1.992 A/M...0.700..........0.6 MAM.........0.2..........24.5".....10.6".....35.0 1987-88...1.956 J/A....1.089..........1.6 ASO.........0.8.........19.1".......5.7".....34.7 1972-73...1.944 N/D...1.705..........2.1 OND.........1.8............2.8".......1.8".....35.8 2009-10...1.517 J/F....1.148..........1.6 NDJ..........1.6..........51.4".....20.9".....33.8 1965-66...1.477 J/A....1.322..........1.9 OND.........1.4..........21.4".......6.8".....35.9 1957-58...1.474 D/J....1.474..........1.8 NDJ..........1.8..........44.7".....11.8".....33.3 1994-95...1.434 S/O...1.197..........1.2 NDJ..........1.0..........11.8".....10.8".....37.1 2006-07...1.290 O/N...0.970..........1.0 OND.........0.7..........12.4".......5.5".....36.5 2002-03...1.180 D/J....1.180..........1.3 OND.........1.1..........49.3".....19.8".....31.2 1976-77...1.026 A/S...0.517..........0.8 OND.........0.6..........24.5".......5.2".....28.5 2004-05...1.018 F/M...0.296.........0.7 OND.........0.6..........41.0".....13.8".....35.4 1979-80...1.015 N/D...0.694.........0.6 NDJ..........0.5..........12.8".......4.6".....35.4 1977-78...1.007 S/O...0.779.........0.8 NDJ..........0.7..........50.7".....17.7".....30.3 2014-15...0.932 A/M...0.406.........0.7 NDJ..........0.6..........50.3".......9.8".....31.7 1989-90...0.916 F/M...0.232........-0.1 NDJ.........-0.1..........13.4".......4.7".....35.7 1968-69...0.866 J/F....0.689.........1.1 DJF..........1.1...........30.2".....15.3".....32.9 1963-64...0.856 D/J....0.856.........1.4 OND.........1.1...........44.7".....12.5".....33.3 1951-52...0.847 J/A....0.408.........1.2 SON.........0.6..........19.7".......5.5".....37.0 1958-59...0.804 J/F....0.577.........0.6 NDJ..........0.6..........13.0".......5.5".....30.9 1969-70...0.645 O/N...0.357.........0.8 NDJ.........0.6..........25.6".......6.8".....30.5 1978-79...0.598 D/J....0.598........-0.1 NDJ........-0.1..........27.2".....12.7".....32.7 2003-04...0.519 O/N...0.304.........0.3 NDJ.........0.3..........42.6".....14.0".....32.4 1990-91...0.393 F/M...0.308.........0.4 NDJ.........0.3..........24.9".......8.9".....39.2 1952-53...0.382 J/F....0.022.........0.7 MAM........0.5..........15.1".......4.2".....38.1 1993-94...0.334 D/J....0.334.........0.1 NDJ..........0.1..........53.4".....12.8".....31.2 1953-54...0.314 N/D..-0.049.........0.8 OND.........0.7..........15.8".......7.9".....37.4 Thank you for that information Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 LOL at the 12z GGEM for next week. Late recurving tropical system impacting the southeast US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 LOL at the 12z GGEM for next week. Late recurving tropical system impacting the southeast US. It's going to be tuff to pull that off during the peak of the season this year let alone may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 LOL at the 12z GGEM for next week. Late recurving tropical system impacting the southeast US. At least one of the GFS cycles showed something similar yesterday. Pre-season phantom storms seem to be a perennial occurrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 Stay classy my friend. The end. Says the dude who said to shoot everyone as a response to the protests turned riots. Anyway...moving on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 The last time that I went into PR I ended up getting a warning point. They gang up on you if you don't agree with whatever agenda is currently being pushed. In any event, what's going on down in Baltimore is an utter shame. This is like the 70's all over again. No. But keep on keepin on. Anyway it's gorgeous out today. Currently 70 and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 LOL at the 12z GGEM for next week. Late recurving tropical system impacting the southeast US. Lol it's about that time of year. The GGEM loves imaginary tropical systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 el nino winters rated by the mei index......the seven strongest have no years over 30"... winter.....max mei date D/J mei.....max oni date DJF oni.....snowfall.....big snow ave temp 1982-83...3.038 F/M...2.689..........2.2 NDJ..........2.2..........27.2".....17.6".....37.9 1997-98...3.004 J/A....2.481..........2.4 OND.........2.2...........5.5".......5.0".....39.6 1991-92...2.271 M/A...1.751..........1.6 DJF..........1.6..........12.6".......6.2".....37.2 1986-87...2.131 A/M...1.235..........1.3 JFM..........1.2..........23.1".......8.1".....34.8 1992-93...1.992 A/M...0.700..........0.6 MAM.........0.2..........24.5".....10.6".....35.0 1987-88...1.956 J/A....1.089..........1.6 ASO.........0.8.........19.1".......5.7".....34.7 1972-73...1.944 N/D...1.705..........2.1 OND.........1.8............2.8".......1.8".....35.8 2009-10...1.517 J/F....1.148..........1.6 NDJ..........1.6..........51.4".....20.9".....33.8 1965-66...1.477 J/A....1.322..........1.9 OND.........1.4..........21.4".......6.8".....35.9 1957-58...1.474 D/J....1.474..........1.8 NDJ..........1.8..........44.7".....11.8".....33.3 1994-95...1.434 S/O...1.197..........1.2 NDJ..........1.0..........11.8".....10.8".....37.1 2006-07...1.290 O/N...0.970..........1.0 OND.........0.7..........12.4".......5.5".....36.5 2002-03...1.180 D/J....1.180..........1.3 OND.........1.1..........49.3".....19.8".....31.2 1976-77...1.026 A/S...0.517..........0.8 OND.........0.6..........24.5".......5.2".....28.5 2004-05...1.018 F/M...0.296.........0.7 OND.........0.6..........41.0".....13.8".....35.4 1979-80...1.015 N/D...0.694.........0.6 NDJ..........0.5..........12.8".......4.6".....35.4 1977-78...1.007 S/O...0.779.........0.8 NDJ..........0.7..........50.7".....17.7".....30.3 2014-15...0.932 A/M...0.406.........0.7 NDJ..........0.6..........50.3".......9.8".....31.7 1989-90...0.916 F/M...0.232........-0.1 NDJ.........-0.1..........13.4".......4.7".....35.7 1968-69...0.866 J/F....0.689.........1.1 DJF..........1.1...........30.2".....15.3".....32.9 1963-64...0.856 D/J....0.856.........1.4 OND.........1.1...........44.7".....12.5".....33.3 1951-52...0.847 J/A....0.408.........1.2 SON.........0.6..........19.7".......5.5".....37.0 1958-59...0.804 J/F....0.577.........0.6 NDJ..........0.6..........13.0".......5.5".....30.9 1969-70...0.645 O/N...0.357.........0.8 NDJ.........0.6..........25.6".......6.8".....30.5 1978-79...0.598 D/J....0.598........-0.1 NDJ........-0.1..........27.2".....12.7".....32.7 2003-04...0.519 O/N...0.304.........0.3 NDJ.........0.3..........42.6".....14.0".....32.4 1990-91...0.393 F/M...0.308.........0.4 NDJ.........0.3..........24.9".......8.9".....39.2 1952-53...0.382 J/F....0.022.........0.7 MAM........0.5..........15.1".......4.2".....38.1 1993-94...0.334 D/J....0.334.........0.1 NDJ..........0.1..........53.4".....12.8".....31.2 1953-54...0.314 N/D..-0.049.........0.8 OND.........0.7..........15.8".......7.9".....37.4 I would gladly sacrifice a higher snowfall season for just one 2/11/83 caliber storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 00z GGEM brings the remnance up here day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 my friend lants bought some new pance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 It's pretty obvious that I wasn't being serious. I was simply poking fun at Warlock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 I would gladly sacrifice a higher snowfall season for just one 2/11/83 caliber storm. it happened the same date as the 2006 storm...both had moderating temperatures after the storm...2006 was 9" more but 1983 seemed bigger and more crippling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 it happened the same date as the 2006 storm...both had moderating temperatures after the storm...2006 was 9" more but 1983 seemed bigger and more crippling...I don't remember the 83 storm but I have heard the tales and seen the pics and its sounds like one of the greats. Despite the fact that 06 has the park snow record region wise I wouldn't put it in the top 10. Notice no one mentioned it in the favorite weather event thread. Out here on the island it was hardly memorable. What I rememeber it most from is watching the deform that gave the park the record fizzle as it headed east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 It's pretty obvious that I wasn't being serious. I was simply poking fun at Warlock.do you have a learning disability? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 do you have a learning disability? That would be no, not sure what your problem is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 remnance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 remnance Give it a break... grammar and syntax take backseat to such pressing matters as a day 10 CMC prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 So I misspelled a word, give me a break. I still managed to earn a Masters degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 So I misspelled a word, give me a break. I still managed to earn a Masters degree. The spelling police love to get people on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 The spelling police love to get people on here I didn't realize that proper grammar was a necessity on a weather board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 The spelling police love to get people on here weather boards are serious bidness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 says the guy with the most posts today http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=forums&module=extras§ion=stats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 So I misspelled a word, give me a break. I still managed to earn a Masters degree.that's not just a "spelling mistake," that's a fundamental misunderstanding of how our language works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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