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February 16th-17th Obs & Nowcasting


nj2va

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HRRR was wretched on Saturday FWIW. 

 

i'm really not sure what's causing the drying we've seen in the HRRR runs towards this evening -- doesn't really show up much in any of the regional/global models -- it's not like we have a super strong high pressure feeding dry air into the region (at least not to my knowledge). 

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i'm really not sure what's causing the drying we've seen in the HRRR runs towards this evening -- doesn't really show up much in any of the regional/global models -- it's not like we have a super strong high pressure feeding dry air into the region (at least not to my knowledge).

That's a good point Chris...there isn't a super high feeding in. In theory the storm flow should take over with the weak high moving off. If we keep our flow e to ne we should be good to go.

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i'm really not sure what's causing the drying we've seen in the HRRR runs towards this evening -- doesn't really show up much in any of the regional/global models -- it's not like we have a super strong high pressure feeding dry air into the region (at least not to my knowledge). 

baby steps http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=hrrr&area=east-us&cycle=20150216%2018%20UTC&param=sim_radar_max&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=area

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Looks like a, if not The, center of circulation going over or just north of Atlanta which is perfection. See the mixing line, there will be surprise juice with this. Moisture that wants to mix running into -5 dewpoints will be awesome.

What does this actually mean? Moisture that wants to mix running into -5 dew points?

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Almost moderate snow now. All area roads have caved. Salt not doing anything. Gonna have to wait till we get 2-3 inches then break out the plows. Salt ain't going to do it with 14 degrees with ice cold ground. Saturday, VDOT had trucks waiting all over the area roads and lots hours and hours before anything fell. Now, I could not find a truck anywhere. I bet the start time the NWS was giving threw them off a bit. Been snowing over an hour now. Last 30 minutes of any consequence. 14.5.  

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What does this actually mean? Moisture that wants to mix running into -5 dew points?

Not really my thing to explain, or justify, it to you as you should already know this.  Moisture laden air that is moist enough to try and mix running into below zero dewpoints will provide for a dynamic situation.

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