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The Valentine's Day Massacre Obs--A snow job or does it only blow?


moneypitmike

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Words don't capture the awe.

We've long passed the unthinkable. Almost feels surreal that we are experiencing this.

Hallowed ground indeed.

 

Coastal & Jerry, enjoyed your posts on spouses. Takes a special person to tolerate this addicted fascination we have.

 

Some photos from Jerry's hood, Brookline. . .

 

 

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post-3106-0-31777300-1424058434_thumb.jp

post-3106-0-36570200-1424058438_thumb.jp

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Can't really go by that with snow. I'll admit I'm not sure how dual pol handles it, but I'm guessing you're not using dual pol.

 

I'm not sure if BOX has updated theirs yet, but if they use the default a dry snow tag would take the rain rate (based off dBZ) and use a multiplier of 2.8 times that to get estimated precip totals. Legacy would use the standard rain rate.

 

Either way, when you have 40 dBZ snowfall, that's naturally going to inflate the precip estimation. That would easily be moderate rain in the warm season.

 

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This takes the cake..I mean..think about this

Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher  9m

So that stat I mentioned last night rings true. Boston with more snow in 3 weeks than Chicago has ever seen in an entire winter. Madness.

 

I love these stats being thrown around. So?

 

ORD averages like 35" per year versus around 45" for BOS to begin with. BOS just has so much more potential because of the Atlantic being in the backyard. BOS actually averages nearly double the number of advisory (3.3 to 2) and warnings (1.7 to 0.8) events per day each season (for whatever reason I can't search by 2 day snowfall to get a more accurate sense of "storm" events). BOS has nearly 5 times the 20" snowstorms that LOT does. Honestly, if any climate site was going to blitz snow for 3 weeks it would probably be BOS or a station very nearby.

 

As far as I'm concerned you might as well be comparing apples to cold cuts.

 

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Aint that the truth. :lol:

 

 

Strengthening mid-levels rarely ever fail to deliver.

 

 

If you think about it though, what do models do best? They do best with placement of upper level features (and filters down to mid-levels)...what they the worst at? Probably surface features with an emphasis on QPF and low level temperature boundaries/advection.

 

So when you have the rare times where the two are at great odds with eachother...which are you more likely to go with? The variable the models do best at or the variable they perform the worst at?

 

I think that was a giant red flag up this way. If I handed you a 700 mb standard map from NCEP, even just heights, would you ever have placed the heavy snowfall all the way along the ME coast?

 

Probably not, the mid levels looked great for a lot of SNE. Great track right along the south coast. Honestly it was the little mesolow feature that saved our bacon up here, without it we might have busted every warning we had up.

 

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It was like 4-5 runs in a row just pounding almost the entire length of the Maine coast...that is not a small area. It's different than us down here saying "well it was great for ORH to BOS but was awful in HFD"...that kind of thing...this was a pretty large scale bust in that area. I don;t think I've seen it choke that bad that close to an event...this is including the NYC blizzard bust too where it was kind of over-blown because it busted by like 30-40 miles, but it was just a metro center with 20 million people.

 

I thought the Euro was getting its mojo back after the storm last weekend and sniffing out the lack of an event on Thursday last week....but it took another monster dump in this event...its worst of the season.

 

Ray is right...it has been a winter to forget for the Euro to this point.

 

Confidence is truly shaken in that model. The long term blend of choice always seemed to be 70/30 Euro. But now? Might as well take 40/30/30 Euro, GGEM, GFS.

 

It was an all time misfire up here. I know we've casually brought it up between a few forecasters today, but I think a local review might be a real good thing here. Can't always look at the successful forecasts.

 

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Yeah. The euro is best at H5 and for identifying threats in that d4-5 range, but my god has it struggled with cyclogenesis this winter. Maybe it's a clipper/miller B issue or it too is just too hires for its own good.

 

It's tough out there right now. Will probably still has it buried somewhere, but I can remember when his class would teach mine how they go about forecasting and being handed a list of biases (AVN, NGM and ETA since who was going to pay for college kids to have access to the ECMWF).

 

Back when the resolution sucked, you had very predictable biases that you could compensate for. Now we have some anecdotal ones, but really the way some models jump from run to run you really have very little feel for how they perform.

 

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Never been more than 2 that I can see.

 

Again I can only search by calendar day, so there might be a season with 3 in there.

My best guess would be 60-61, as NYC only missed the trifecta by 0.1". All two-day events, though.

NYC snow:

12/12-13...15.2"

1/19-20....9.9"

2/3-4.....17.4"

And all subfreezing temps between the latter two.

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000

NOUS41 KBOX 161558

PNSBOX

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-RIZ001>008-162000-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

1058 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015

...VALENTINES DAY WEEKEND BLIZZARD...

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WERE REACHED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS

SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS DURING THE STORM ON FEBRUARY 14 AND 15.

THIS STORM PRODUCED WIND GUSTS OF 65 MPH ON NANTUCKET AND 45 TO 55

MPH ACROSS MUCH OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST A FOOT WERE COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS RHODE ISLAND WITH

SOME AREAS REACHING NEARLY 2 FEET ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS COASTS.

SNOW TOTALS WERE UNDER A FOOT FOR MUCH OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS

AND NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.

THE DEFINITION OF A BLIZZARD IS THAT FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW

REDUCES VISIBILITY TO BELOW 1/4 MILE ALONG WITH WINDS THAT

FREQUENTLY GUST TO 35 MPH OR MORE...AND THAT THESE BLIZZARD

CONDITIONS ARE THE PREDOMINANT REPORTED CONDITION FOR AT LEAST 3

CONSECUTIVE HOURS.

WHEN REVIEWING WHETHER A PARTICULAR OBSERVATION LOCATION HAD

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...WE CONSIDERED VISIBILITIES EQUAL TO 1/4 MILE

BECAUSE THAT IS QUITE LOW FOR AN AUTOMATED SENSOR TO BE ABLE TO

DETECT IN SNOW OR BLOWING SNOW. IN A FEW INSTANCES...THE AUTOMATED

SENSORS DID REPORT ZERO VISIBILITIES FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME.

HOWEVER...IN OUR BEST JUDGMENT...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WERE

OCCURRING WITH AUTOMATED SENSOR VISIBILITIES SUSTAINED AT 1/4 MILE

WITH HEAVY SNOW OR BLOWING SNOW BEING REPORTED AND WIND GUSTS OF

35 MPH OR MORE.

THE FOLLOWING OBSERVATION SITES HAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON

FEBRUARY 15TH. DURATIONS SHOWN ARE FOR CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. TIMES ARE APPROXIMATE TO WITHIN A FEW

MINUTES...

NANTUCKET MA...4.5 HOURS FROM 840 AM TO 110 PM

HYANNIS MA...4 HOURS FROM 845 AM TO 100 PM

CHATHAM MA...4.5 HOURS FROM 830 AM TO 100 PM

MARSHFIELD MA...3.3 HOURS FROM 755 AM TO 1115 AM

FALMOUTH MA...4 HOURS FROM 855 AM TO 1255 PM

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE FOLLOWING SITES HAD NEAR-BLIZZARD

CONDITIONS...

MARTHAS VINEYARD MA...HAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR JUST UNDER 2.5

HOURS BETWEEN 735 AM AND 1000 AM.

NEWPORT RI...EXPERIENCED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DISCONTINUOUSLY FOR 3

HOURS BETWEEN 655 AM AND 955 AM.

PLYMOUTH MA...EXPERIENCED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DISCONTINUOUSLY FOR

3.5 HOURS BETWEEN 730 AM AND 1100 AM.

$

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT

@NWSBOSTON

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Here's the 2 day CoCoRaHs totals for snow amounts of 10" or more. I'm pretty sure they're required to measure once every 24hrs at some point in the morning so these would probably be higher with clearing every 6hrs. It made a difference of about 3" between me and the other 2 Northfield stations, but obviously this event was an extreme.

 

Town Snow/Water Equiv/Ratio

ME

Washington

Pembroke 5.4 SSE 18.0"/1.15"/16:1

Eastport 1.5 SE 25.2"/1.26"/20:1

 

York

Kittery Point 0.8 WSW 17.0"/1.15"/15:1

Kennebunk 1.8 WNW 15.0"/----/---

Biddeford 1.5 NNE 13.0"/0.63"/21:1

Acton 2.7 NW 12.6"/0.60"/21:1

York 5.2 N 15.0"/0.94"/16:1

 

NH

Belknap

Tilton Northfield 3.3 NE 10.0"/0.55"/18:1

 

Hillsborough

Greenville 1.1 ENE 10.0"/0.71"/14:1

Mont Vernon 1.3 SSW 11.0"/0.72"/15:1

New Boston 2.4 S 9.9"/0.64"/15:1

 

Merrimack

Bow 1.6 NW 10.9"/0.61"/18:1

Danbury 2.2 ESE 9.9"/0.61"/16:1

South Sutton 2.5 SSE 13.0"/0.56"/23:1

Newbury 4.0 SE 13.0"/0.63"/21:1

Bow 1.5 N 12.0"/0.60"/20:1

Northfield 2.8 E 10.0"/0.77"/13:1

 

Rockingham

Portsmouth 1.5 NE 15.0"/0.60"/

Exeter 1.5 E 14.0"/0.92"/

Stratham 1.9 ESE 12.8"/0.73"/

Salem 1.7 NNE 10.8"/0.74"/

 

MA

Essex

Salisbury 3.7 NW 12.8"/0.61" /21:1

Boxford 2.4 S 12.6"/0.80"/16:1

 

Middlesex

Winchester 0.7 SE 10.3"/0.80"/13:1

Acton 1.3 SW 16.6"/0.86"/19:1

Somerville 0.8 SSE 15.5"/0.69"/22:1

Medford 1.2 W 21.0"/0.75"/28:1

 

Norfolk

Norwood 1.3 NW 14.5"/0.86"/17:1

Weymouth 0.5 NW 14.5"/0.84"/17:1

Millis 2.0 SW 13.5"/0.84"/16:1

 

Suffolk

Winthrop 0.2 N 16.2"/0.72"/23:1

Brighton 0.5 W 13.0"/0.58"/22:1

 

Worcester

Fitchburg 1.6 SSW 11.0"/0.44"/25:1

 

Bristol

Norton 1.8 NNE 13.1"/0.64"/20:1

Dighton 1.1 WSW 13.0"/0.65"/20:1

 

Plymouth

Kingston 3.3 WNW 16.5"/1.12"/15:1

East Bridgewater 1.7 WNW 21.0"/0.67"/31:1

Abington 1.2 NNE 12.3"/0.99"/12:1

 

Barnstable

East Falmouth 1.4 ESE 12.0"/1.29"/9:1

 

Dukes

Vineyard Haven 0.8 WSW 13.0"/1.51"/9:1

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000

NOUS41 KBOX 161558

PNSBOX

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-RIZ001>008-162000-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

1058 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015

...VALENTINES DAY WEEKEND BLIZZARD...

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WERE REACHED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS

SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS DURING THE STORM ON FEBRUARY 14 AND 15.

THIS STORM PRODUCED WIND GUSTS OF 65 MPH ON NANTUCKET AND 45 TO 55

MPH ACROSS MUCH OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST A FOOT WERE COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS RHODE ISLAND WITH

SOME AREAS REACHING NEARLY 2 FEET ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS COASTS.

SNOW TOTALS WERE UNDER A FOOT FOR MUCH OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS

AND NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.

THE DEFINITION OF A BLIZZARD IS THAT FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW

REDUCES VISIBILITY TO BELOW 1/4 MILE ALONG WITH WINDS THAT

FREQUENTLY GUST TO 35 MPH OR MORE...AND THAT THESE BLIZZARD

CONDITIONS ARE THE PREDOMINANT REPORTED CONDITION FOR AT LEAST 3

CONSECUTIVE HOURS.

WHEN REVIEWING WHETHER A PARTICULAR OBSERVATION LOCATION HAD

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...WE CONSIDERED VISIBILITIES EQUAL TO 1/4 MILE

BECAUSE THAT IS QUITE LOW FOR AN AUTOMATED SENSOR TO BE ABLE TO

DETECT IN SNOW OR BLOWING SNOW. IN A FEW INSTANCES...THE AUTOMATED

SENSORS DID REPORT ZERO VISIBILITIES FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME.

HOWEVER...IN OUR BEST JUDGMENT...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WERE

OCCURRING WITH AUTOMATED SENSOR VISIBILITIES SUSTAINED AT 1/4 MILE

WITH HEAVY SNOW OR BLOWING SNOW BEING REPORTED AND WIND GUSTS OF

35 MPH OR MORE.

THE FOLLOWING OBSERVATION SITES HAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON

FEBRUARY 15TH. DURATIONS SHOWN ARE FOR CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. TIMES ARE APPROXIMATE TO WITHIN A FEW

MINUTES...

NANTUCKET MA...4.5 HOURS FROM 840 AM TO 110 PM

HYANNIS MA...4 HOURS FROM 845 AM TO 100 PM

CHATHAM MA...4.5 HOURS FROM 830 AM TO 100 PM

MARSHFIELD MA...3.3 HOURS FROM 755 AM TO 1115 AM

FALMOUTH MA...4 HOURS FROM 855 AM TO 1255 PM

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE FOLLOWING SITES HAD NEAR-BLIZZARD

CONDITIONS...

MARTHAS VINEYARD MA...HAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR JUST UNDER 2.5

HOURS BETWEEN 735 AM AND 1000 AM.

NEWPORT RI...EXPERIENCED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DISCONTINUOUSLY FOR 3

HOURS BETWEEN 655 AM AND 955 AM.

PLYMOUTH MA...EXPERIENCED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DISCONTINUOUSLY FOR

3.5 HOURS BETWEEN 730 AM AND 1100 AM.

$

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT

@NWSBOSTON

Davis weather station Clinch
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