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The Valentine's Day Massacre Obs--A snow job or does it only blow?


moneypitmike

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Yeah I wasn't thinking we'd have widespread 1" QPF...but even the RGEM had the precip mostly offshore...but you are right that 00z run started to show hints with that QPF bomb on Cape Ann.

 

No models did well with this event. It was a pretty good bust by all of them. GFS did ok in eastern areas showing the good QPF on Sunday morning...but it was too bullish overnight giving 2-4 tenths on some of those runs that gave 1"+..and of course it was a disaster west of ORH. I'll say the RAP model in close range was pretty good though. It had the good lift this morning over E MA pretty consistently.

 

 

I think the RGEM and GEMLAM guidance did a really good job at showing the banding blossoming during the overnight and pivoting towards our area (I say our because I'm in Essex County right now). But yeah, it did keep most of the banding just offshore, though the immediate shores were hit hard. I figured the banding was going to go a bit west of that given the strong banding tends to go just a bit west of where models have it, but perhaps the strong NW flow behind the storm was going to "compress" the banding and keep it from advancing too far west of Boston. 

 

But once that lower-level firehose worked its way in, it was clear that was going to take what was already very impressive banding and shove it west. That combined with the position of the ML centers and boom. 

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Looking back which models did the best with this one?

GFS totally failed back here with 0.5-1.0" of liquid modeled with most areas getting <0.25" in CT. How did things fare up toward Boston?

GFS is not a meso. Overall, it won. Again.

There are a lot of folks who cling to the Euro because it's "Euro." Well, how'd that currency work out for you?

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Picked up another 5"+ since the 3.5" from last night giving me 8.5"+ from this storm. I think the snow is done, but the winds are pretty relentless right now. zero point in trying to clear anything right now.

yea I had 9, pretty sweet when the big gusts come and the trees shed the WAA from yesterday.
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Final figure here 11.5". My tallest holly bush is just over 4 feet and less than 8" showing. Drift on five foot fence in the back yard is within inches of the top of it.... Hard to tell what the depth is on the flat since it has blown around so much. I have 6 foot drifts on one side of the house....less than two feet on the other. Maybe 40" on the ground? Definitely more than we had after the blizzard gave us 36" (and whatever compaction we had that first day after). -12C/11F... High of -8C/18F sometime after midnight.

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We should start a 'Guess when the MBTA will be back to normal" thread.

I'm guessing a week from Tuesday based on their pattern so far. I just want to know if they will be operational tomorrow morning or if I should open that bomber of Belgian beer I have sitting on my counter.

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