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The Valentine's Day Massacre Obs--A snow job or does it only blow?


moneypitmike

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Just finished snowblowing/shoveling.  16-18" of white air.   Can't believe how light the new snow is.   Total depth is hard to judge because of drifting, but it's more than 36" for sure.

 

The wind is gusty, but not sustained.  When it does gust though....Total white out.

 

 

Awesome storm for this area.  Learned a lot....

 

We're on to Tuesday.   Any doubt that things will fall right and we get buried again?  Just the way it's going....

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Got to cut them some slack here...this storm was just modeled terribly, of course all the armchair mets don't know that.

I don't think it was modeled that poorly. We will need to see the water equivalents. .4 to .7 seemed to be the safest bet, Harv says some got 30 to 1. Gfs was atrocious rest weren't too bad euro was by far the best

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Just finished snowblowing/shoveling. 16-18" of white air. Can't believe how light the new snow is. Total depth is hard to judge because of drifting, but it's more than 36" for sure.

The wind is gusty, but not sustained. When it does gust though....Total white out.

Any chance you can do a core of a slice?

Awesome storm for this area. Learned a lot....

We're on to Tuesday. Any doubt that things will fall right and we get buried again? Just the way it's going....

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I don't think it was modeled that poorly. We will need to see the water equivalents. .4 to .7 seemed to be the safest bet, Harv says some got 30 to 1. Gfs was atrocious rest weren't too bad euro was by far the best

Well some of the ASOS sites will underreport liquid. The newer AWPAGs do a better job since they're a weighing gauge using an environmentally friendly antifreeze. The OTT ATDD alter type windshields really minimize the wind effects, but I have no idea which sites are equipped with what. Anything with a heated tipping bucket...fuggedabout it.

I had a snow core last night that was about 35:1 with 7.5" of snow. I take them right off of my snow board with my 4" stratus manual gauge...then add a measured amount of hot water to melt it and then subtract it out of the final total. I don't think I've ever had a sample with that much snow with that little liquid and I've been doing this since about 2000.

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I don't know that I've ever seen the rug pulled out that quickly once an event was underway. Just brutal.

 

Could see it slipping away yesterday at 12z, Once i saw how far south the low was developing south of LI and its track, I knew we were cooked, GFS was pretty consistent with us being in between lows

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Euro was the most bullish for snow here and busted badly

 

It was like 4-5 runs in a row just pounding almost the entire length of the Maine coast...that is not a small area. It's different than us down here saying "well it was great for ORH to BOS but was awful in HFD"...that kind of thing...this was a pretty large scale bust in that area. I don;t think I've seen it choke that bad that close to an event...this is including the NYC blizzard bust too where it was kind of over-blown because it busted by like 30-40 miles, but it was just a metro center with 20 million people.

 

I thought the Euro was getting its mojo back after the storm last weekend and sniffing out the lack of an event on Thursday last week....but it took another monster dump in this event...its worst of the season.

 

Ray is right...it has been a winter to forget for the Euro to this point.

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I would disagree.

Was being facetious. Euro was awful in Maine GFS was awdul most everywhere. Overall the rgem had a decent idea on "a" band in eastern areas but really only the hrrr and rap runs after 18z yesterday correctly targeted that banding.

Gfs led several offices down the path to getting slammed again today, euro too.

It's a weird deal the euro clearly is broken.

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Also guys lets be realistic the winds busted low badly. There were very limited gusts even into the 50-60 range and no widespread devastating power outages as many were indicating. I was just out and about on 495 and route 3, roads are fine in the "blizzard" zone. Blacktop in many main roads despite some snow blowing around. In many ways that made this more enjoyable, but it wasn't the wind tempest predicted either and that owes partly to the Maine whiff too...just wasn't the storm modeled a few runs ago. Huge but pretty far out there

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It was like 4-5 runs in a row just pounding almost the entire length of the Maine coast...that is not a small area. It's different than us down here saying "well it was great for ORH to BOS but was awful in HFD"...that kind of thing...this was a pretty large scale bust in that area. I don;t think I've seen it choke that bad that close to an event...this is including the NYC blizzard bust too where it was kind of over-blown because it busted by like 30-40 miles, but it was just a metro center with 20 million people. strange as it sounds, The GGEM never

 

I thought the Euro was getting its mojo back after the storm last weekend and sniffing out the lack of an event on Thursday last week....but it took another monster dump in this event...its worst of the season.

 

Ray is right...it has been a winter to forget for the Euro to this point.

 

Yeah, I really don't know which model really performed well on this event, We never got two runs in a row with models holding onto the same solution, As strange as it sounds the GGEM right from the get go showed us in the screw zone every run

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