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The Valentine's Day Massacre Obs--A snow job or does it only blow?


moneypitmike

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I'm looking at what's out there compared with last night and making an educated guess of about 12 new. Would bring us into the 16 + range. But with so much on the ground and ripping wind hard to tell. What did you get on winter hill, ORH weather?

Up here about 3 miles south of Holden I'd say we have about 10-11". Around 5" by 11pm last night, and another 5" or so, mainly over a two hour period earlier this AM.

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Meh, if you didn't like his forecast or reasoning...you rebutt it with your own reasoning. That's what I did.

 

Not everyone has the exact same level of tact, but he wasn't dishing out personal attacks like some of you this morning.

Exactly.

I agree he has a condescending town sometimes, and is not as tactful as yourself, and some others, but this blowback is uncalled for.

just put him on ignore...he didn't flame anyone.

 

I maybe about done.....hopefully just crawl my way to 18"

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It was freaking saturated right past 500mb too...lol. So weird. I wish I thought about it more..but wasn't sure if models saw something by actually lowering QPF when the event nears. Well good lesson here, just glad I didn't buy the .5" on the EC. Yikes.

Was it really much more than 0.50" though? Melted cocorahs obs around E MA this morning are mostly 0.50-0.70" outside of NE MA. Heck I had that 35:1 7" core overnight.

The blizz conditions during the event never really materialized so many had efficiently accumulating fluff. I had figured the crystals would take quite a beating in the coastal zones.

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Was it really much more than 0.50" though? Melted cocorahs obs around E MA this morning are mostly 0.50-0.70" outside of NE MA. Heck I had that 35:1 7" core overnight.

The blizz conditions during the event never really materialized so many had efficiently accumulating fluff. I had figured the crystals would take quite a beating in the coastal zones.

 

BOS and points SE likely had over 1" QPF though. I agree areas NW were fluffier.

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Was it really much more than 0.50" though? Melted cocorahs obs around E MA this morning are mostly 0.50-0.70" outside of NE MA. Heck I had that 35:1 7" core overnight.

The blizz conditions during the event never really materialized so many had efficiently accumulating fluff. I had figured the crystals would take quite a beating in the coastal zones.

Someone said radar estimates were a lot higher. The band from 5-8am had to deliver close to 0.5 in that period alone. I realize it's rough in snow to get accurate qpf.

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What a fun entertainer this event was. ... 

 

Fascinating Rad history here:  http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KBOX∏=bref1&bkgr=black&endDate=20150215&endTime=14&duration=8

 

To a very close estimation I have 41" of snow pack now as of 10 am in Ayer.  This is obviously less than official, and do to the blowing factor of all snow storms we have endured in recent weeks, it's very likely variable from neighborhood to neighborhood.  

 

This storm is (according to the NAM) pull down some of the very bluest air of the season.  I have never seen an FRH grid look like this for Logan:   18000602602 -1615 093029 98 77 78 79

 

That represents -23C at 980 mb, then -22 and -21 at 900 and 800 respectively from left to right!  Notice the inverted nature of the sounding there, with the very coldest at the bottom, then actually ... though pathetically, moderating in the vertical.  This is  pure unadulterated cold pull right out of the reservoir, and right over a deep deep snow pack.  This may very well be the nadir air mass of the season; just common sense-wise, we are fighting the calendar in such matters.  Purely by magnitude alone -vs- climatology (forget the sun), there is little to no suggestion that -9 F is attainable for that particular location, afterward... 

 

If all this were not enough... the model are still not fully removing mid week event(s)

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Yeah I think focusing all on the low level stuff seems one theory...and probably the best one. The extreme low heights of the ULL perhaps were fooling the models into thinking the moisture wouldn't advect westward up that slope? I dunno...you think they should handle that fine though. But maybe they were just trying to squeeze out all the moisture before it had a chance to advect west...printing out QPF blobs over Georges Bank and the Gulf of Maine

 

 

I thought you made the best call, actually Will, in that one post I read of yours where you pretty much just sans all the other conflicting indicators and went with gut instinct wrt to closing off 700 and 500mb surfaces.  I read that and thought, 'yeah, that's odd to do that in such a parched result' -- sure enough.. 

 

The post I just made has the Rad history, showing how this thing back boldly SW across the area over the last 8 hours... Those bands had some ridiculous fall rates at 20:1...

 

One thing about this event is that we are kind of lacking the wind advertisement.  I guess that's for the better considering the magnitude of cold in route. 

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Was it really much more than 0.50" though? Melted cocorahs obs around E MA this morning are mostly 0.50-0.70" outside of NE MA. Heck I had that 35:1 7" core overnight.

The blizz conditions during the event never really materialized so many had efficiently accumulating fluff. I had figured the crystals would take quite a beating in the coastal zones.

 

 

Those are 7am though, right? I'd imagine we'll have a lot of obs over 0.75" once the full event is taken into account

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