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40/70 Benchmark

Super Snow Sunday 2/15-Party Like it's 1717

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Sunday we might get a few flurries according to the GFS.

 

Hope you like cold wind! Because... that is, that is what I got you.

 

Happy birthday.

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I like this period for back to back snowstorms.  First one is 4-6" and second one has potential to be greater.  EURO is closer to something big, GFS is close according to 700mb moisture layout and lift in the -12 to -18C layer.

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Well, the streak had to end sometime.....two huge whiffs. Time for the constraints of climo intervene a bit. 1717 remains unchallenged, perhaps...

hmm my climo for the next two weeks is snowiest time of the year, hope the constraints continue

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This threat is still very much on the table...silly to write it off as a whiff. You have a closed 5H low going just south of SNE. That always bears watching...even if there are imperfections right now on model guidance.

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This threat is still very much on the table...silly to write it off as a whiff. You have a closed 5H low going just south of SNE. That always bears watching...even if there are imperfections right now on model guidance.

When mid level lows go south of SNE in winter .. It snows. Period. No idea what Ray is talking about other than pure emotional reaction based on people's posts he saw about the 18z GFS . Which is exactly what happened

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hmm my climo for the next two weeks is snowiest time of the year, hope the constraints continue

I posted that saying to myself "this will set the alarm off on Steve's desk" ...and sure enough. Why do you have to twist anything and everything that can be remotely perceived as not pro snow and cold? I mean, it's not as though I implied that winter is over, or has been a dissapointment.Since we are never going to get 200" of snow in a season, we were due for some of this potential to go unrealized. Regardless of what time of year it is, but since you brought it up, we just passed the peak of sne snowfall climo......first week of Feb.

 

BTW, Happy Birthday, king weenie.

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Well, the streak had to end sometime.....two huge whiffs. Time for the constraints of climo intervene a bit. 1717 remains unchallenged, perhaps...

 

 

This threat is still very much on the table...silly to write it off as a whiff. You have a closed 5H low going just south of SNE. That always bears watching...even if there are imperfections right now on model guidance.

 

 

When mid level lows go south of SNE in winter .. It snows. Period. No idea what Ray is talking about other than pure emotional reaction based on people's posts he saw about the 18z GFS . Which is exactly what happened

Apparently there are some reading comprehension deficiencies.

 

Jesus, heaven forbid someone entertain the notion that Sunday misses.

 

The streak ends Friday, I think that is set in stone...but I implied that perhaps Sunday could miss, as well, given the current trend in guidance.

 

I'm not sure what Kevin is laughing at, anyway.....forecasting 20:1 ratios several days out.

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Apparently there are some reading comprehension deficiencies.

Jesus, heaven forbid someone entertain the notion that Sunday misses.

The streak ends Friday, I think that is set in stone...but I implied that perhaps Sunday could miss, as well, given the current trend in guidance.

I'm not sure what Kevin is laughing at, anyway.....forecasting 20:1 ratios several days out.

Emotion on

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I like this period for back to back snowstorms.  First one is 4-6" and second one has potential to be greater.  EURO is closer to something big, GFS is close according to 700mb moisture layout and lift in the -12 to -18C layer.

I'm going to say this because it worked 3 days before the blizzard:

"It isn't happening James."

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How is the "streak" ending? Serious question.

Well, I guess technically if we get some snowfall, then you could consider it a converted opportunity, but I consider it a pretty much a failed threat.

 

I guess there is some subjectivity there.

Don't get me wrong....this is going to be my favorite winter of all-time.

Hands down.

 

I just keep waiting for everything to stop breaking perfectly, I guess what I meant....and finally that may be happening.

Hey, completely epic, though and more in the pipe line.

I was just in awe of how many of these we would continue to exotically convert on.

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While I'm not crazy about the look right now, it isn't terrible...and it's Tuesday. And we are talking about Sunday.

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   Ok. Boston is not going to get greater than 120" of snow. I promise you. Write it down, record it, throw on yoga pants and choreograph some slick moves to the rthym of it. Do whatever the hell you wish.

 

If it ends up with 120, that's well above the previous record which def isn't climo slowing this thing down between now and then. That would be prolific for the rest of FEB/MAR. The only ceiling is how long/stable this pattern remains with a bit of variance depending on exact tracks etc.

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