Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Waiting on Brick to post maps, I'll let you know Cool, thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Well, I really wish I didnt see those euro control maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Well, I really wish I didnt see those euro control maps.Good or bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Good or bad? Well, it matches up really good with the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Well, it matches up really good with the UKMET.That sounds really awesome! Lots of good agreement , for something big/ medium! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Good or bad?Large swath of 6-9" from Raleigh to the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I can't multiquote on my phone but thanks all who caught me up! I was really hoping for the second storm here in Raleigh, don't think the tues storm will get it done but I'd love for it to trend south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Well, I really wish I didnt see those euro control maps. Has that model ever verified? It always seems to be extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Has that model ever verified? It always seems to be extreme. It's just the operational starting conditions run as an ensemble at a much lower resolution. It's more useful in comparing the ensembles to the operational than it is by itself. If the control agrees fairly well with the operational then you can assume that the ensembles have the resolution to resolve the major features for a system/pattern. If they are wildly different then it suggests that either the operational is drunk again or perhaps the ensembles don't have the resolution to pick up on all of the features in an upcoming system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Large swath of 6-9" from Raleigh to the mountains Jon, Seems the 0z euro has the slp going right over us. That can't be good for these parts can it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Alright, this system has my interest. I am still worried though because of the models may pull another Lucy on us. This is about as close as we have been at 5 days out to possibly getting a good storm. Can we believe It this time? Should we do a snow dance and beg the models?I actually ordered a sled last week and am picking it up today. I don't know if that's a good thing or not. LoL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Jon, Seems the 0z euro has the slp going right over us. That can't be good for these parts can it? No, that's not good for our area. Right now it's looking like we'll start as some kind of frozen precip then at some point switch to rain. Moisture will be running out well ahead of the main system but we'll have to see how much. I just never cared for winter storms that start as frozen then go to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 No, that's not good for our area. Right now it's looking like we'll start as some kind of frozen precip then at some point switch to rain. Moisture will be running out well ahead of the main system but we'll have to see how much. I just never cared for winter storms that start as frozen then go to rain. no, we need to stay all snow, no rain please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 no, we need to stay all snow, no rain please. The way it's looking right now I believe you will go over to rain at some point. For your area it'd be a zr/ip to rn to sn. Way too early to nail down p-types but you'll need a S and E trend to stay all frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 No, that's not good for our area. Right now it's looking like we'll start as some kind of frozen precip then at some point switch to rain. Moisture will be running out well ahead of the main system but we'll have to see how much. I just never cared for winter storms that start as frozen then go to rain. My weenie model watching experience tells me that at some point the Euro and the UK will meet in the middle. Hopefully that happens south of where the Euro is right now but I'm not sure anyone can do more than guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 My weenie model watching experience tells me that at some point the Euro and the UK will meet in the middle. Hopefully that happens south of where the Euro is right now but I'm not sure anyone can do more than guess. I'd say the Euro is probably way too amped up at the moment, which will probably be good for us if/when it comes around. The GFS at 06z came in less amped, so maybe the Euro will follow suit, too? At this point, I have to think the UKMET's progressive bias may be at play, as well, though, so it is probably too far S/E. Of course, I hope it's on the money. It would be an amazing powder snowstorm with temperatures in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The way it's looking right now I believe you will go over to rain at some point. For your area it'd be a zr/ip to rn to sn. Way too early to nail down p-types but you'll need a S and E trend to stay all frozen. I think for his area in Asheville, as well as my area, it would be snow to sleet/freezing rain to rain, with the freezing rain and sleet hanging on longer in the CAD areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 No, that's not good for our area. Right now it's looking like we'll start as some kind of frozen precip then at some point switch to rain. Moisture will be running out well ahead of the main system but we'll have to see how much. I just never cared for winter storms that start as frozen then go to rain. no, we need to stay all snow, no rain please. Above 8,000 ft in the Rockies is where you gotta be for no rain and slop They have a saying in the SW Colorado mtns that the weather is either sunny or snowing...sounds nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think for his area in Asheville, as well as my area, it would be snow to sleet/freezing rain to rain, with the freezing rain and sleet hanging on longer in the CAD areas. Very possible w/ your elevation. I haven't looked at any soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Above 8,000 ft in the Rockies is where you gotta be for no rain and slop They have a saying in the SW Colorado mtns that the weather is either sunny or snowing...sounds nice That does sound nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The way it's looking right now I believe you will go over to rain at some point. For your area it'd be a zr/ip to rn to sn. Way too early to nail down p-types but you'll need a S and E trend to stay all frozen. just read GSP discussion and they're talking about a warm nose. I wish there wasn't such a thing, seems like that is in the forecast more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 just read GSP discussion and they're talking about a warm nose. I wish there wasn't such a thing, seems like that is in the forecast more often than not. That has everything to do w/ the track of the system. Further S and E and you'd stay frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 just read GSP discussion and they're talking about a warm nose. I wish there wasn't such a thing, seems like that is in the forecast more often than not. Just looking at the extracted data it looks like that the Asheville Regional Airport is running 3-5 degrees warmer at the surface during the main precip than Morganton-Lenoir Airport. CAD at its finest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Jon, Seems the 0z euro has the slp going right over us. That can't be good for these parts can it?Yeah that's no good. I haven't seen it but we definitely don't want a track over us, this needs to be off the coast but I'm not sure how we can trend from a cutter to that unless the models are really mishandling this storm and the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We're still 4+ days out. No reason at all to get hung up on specific tracks, warm noses, virga, or dynamic cooling at this point. Only thing that matters right now are trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 No, that's not good for our area. Right now it's looking like we'll start as some kind of frozen precip then at some point switch to rain. Moisture will be running out well ahead of the main system but we'll have to see how much. I just never cared for winter storms that start as frozen then go to rain. Yeah, this storm has that written all over it IMO. I guess the trend south is something to watch. If it can get into GA/SC maybe it's a nice storm (like the UK shows currently?). But I still think this is a cutter or Apps runner and that's what we get, a shot of frozen followed by sweet, sweet cold rain. Am I the only one not impressed with the cold shot? CLT is forecasted to go mid teens for lows and low 30s for highs. That's cold sure, but it's nothing we don't see a few times a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yay the 6z GFS gave me snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think for his area in Asheville, as well as my area, it would be snow to sleet/freezing rain to rain, with the freezing rain and sleet hanging on longer in the CAD areas.it's a good bit of snow to sleet to freezing rain to all rain. Then back to snow and playing on the glacier in the yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 it's a good bit of snow to sleet to freezing rain to all rain. Then back to snow and playing on the glacier in the yard. I know you guys arent as used to getting those glaciers as we are but they stay around forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Jon, Seems the 0z euro has the slp going right over us. That can't be good for these parts can it? Most of our wintry precip comes from the initial overrunning, and it could be significant, as it was on the 00z Euro. I don't think most of us are envisioning an all-frozen event at this point, unless the UKMET pulls a coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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