Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It'll be interesting to see if the 12z euro holds onto the Tuesday storm. Both the gfs and cmc are wide right. The euro has been consistent in showing something. so if the euro doesn't show anything, we can toss this system and move on to the next ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 so if the euro doesn't show anything, we can toss this system and move on to the next ? I wouldn't say toss it but the trends wouldn't be in our favor. We still have the weekend and we know how this weeks storm trended last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Currently, where is the energy that is responsible for the Tuesday system (or lack of system)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The cmc is bringing the goods on Thursday night/Friday morning. Snow in northern half of Ga., SC, and into NC. Edit: Has another system Saturday night/Sunday morning but is suppressed. Eastern NC might see some snow out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GEM event looks similar to the GFS event just it is a day and a half quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Here's the GFS clown map courtesy of Tropical Tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Most of that is sleet for SC once you get south of 20 but west of 95. East of 95 you get into the freezing rain which goes all the way to the coast from Myrtle to just south of Georgetown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Most of that is sleet for SC once you get south of 20 but west of 95. East of 95 you get into the freezing rain which goes all the way to the coast from Myrtle to just south of Georgetown. Yuck! So that looks like a snow-IP mix in Central NC? Here's the GFS clown map courtesy of Tropical Tidbits. Yuck! So that would be a snow to IP event for central NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Most of that is sleet for SC once you get south of 20 but west of 95. East of 95 you get into the freezing rain which goes all the way to the coast from Myrtle to just south of Georgetown. Looks like the upstate and Charlotte area prob changes over to sleet at the end, but this far out there are going to be major changes still. 2m temps look great though. Low to mid 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GEM event looks similar to the GFS event just it is a day and a half quicker. GEM was even better looking...but yeah, much like the GFS, it digs a large trough into the southwest which brings out the gulf low. The UKMet wasn't too far off of the GFS and GEM, but it didn't dig the big trough as far southwest, so the gulf low was flatter and quicker with weak low well off Daytona Beach at 12z Fri. Let's see where the Euro goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yuck! So that looks like a snow-IP mix in Central NC? Yuck! So that would be a snow to IP event for central NC? Looks like almost all sleet for FAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Currently, where is the energy that is responsible for the Tuesday system (or lack of system)? I don't specifically know but stumbled on this last night. Great read which might partially explain some of the model fails this season. EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1255 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2015 VALID 12Z MON FEB 23 2015 - 12Z FRI FEB 27 2015 ...RELENTLESS COLD TO CONTINUE IN THE EAST... ...OVERVIEW... THE IMPRESSIVE COLD SPELL IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY CONTINUE NEXT WEEK OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF A COASTAL STORM FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE WESTERN STATES SHOULD BE RELEASED FROM THE GRIP OF THE RIDGE AS IT RETROGRADES INTO THE NE PACIFIC ALONG 150W. ...GUIDANCE ASSESSMENT AND PREFERENCES... THE RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE UPPER PATTERN THAT ALIGNS OVER THE NE PACIFIC/EASTERN CONUS/ATLANTIC... RESPECTIVELY... SHOWS LITTLE SIGN OF MOVING BUT SHOULD THROW IN SOME CURVE BALLS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WHILE THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES WERE QUICKER WITH ENERGY DIVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST MON-WED. BY NEXT THUR-FRI... BETTER RELATIVE AGREEMENT IS SEEN EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH NORTHERN STREAM-DOMINATED TROUGHING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WHILE THE WEST SHOULD SEE /MOSTLY/ SOUTHERN STREAM-DOMINATED TROUGHING THAT WILL BE COMPLICATED BY HOW ENERGY RUNS UP AND OVER THE RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PACIFIC. BEST BET FOR THE WESTERN STATES WOULD BE AN ENSEMBLE COMPROMISE GIVEN THE TIMING/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. IN THE EAST... FOCUS WILL BE ON INTERACTION BETWEEN INCOMING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SE COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE DEFINED SYSTEM NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH POTENTIALLY DIGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND SWINGS INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE PARADE OF SYSTEMS THAT SEEM TO GRAVITATE TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE LAST MONTH... THIS CERTAINLY SEEMS TO FIT THE BILL. ECMWF/UKMET ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SUCH A DEVELOPMENT WHILE RECENT GFS RUNS WERE WEAK/SUPPRESSED AND OUT TO SEA WIDE RIGHT. THE CANADIAN LIED SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. 12Z/19 ECMWF WAS ON THE WESTERN/DEEPER SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD -- WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE IN RECENT STORMS -- BUT SHOULD NEITHER BE DISCOUNTED NOR TAKEN AT FACE VALUE. -SOME OF THE INCIPIENT ENERGY FOR THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND -- 71N/179W -- WHERE THE MODELS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR MISHANDLING THESE POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALIES.- BY NEXT THURSDAY/FRIDAY... TROUGHING SHOULD SUPPORT A SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE WEST WITH COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EAST. ...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... TWO MORE COLD WAVES WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES... THE FIRST ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND ON WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. THESE SHOULD MOSTLY SPARE THE SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA BUT RATHER FOCUS ON THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES 25-35F BELOW AVERAGE ARE VERY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE COLD RELATIVE TO THE TIME OF YEAR. IN BETWEEN THESE COLD SHOTS WILL BE THE POSSIBLE NORTHEASTERN STORM... WITH ONE OR MAYBE A VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK. PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE PAC NW INTO THE INTERIOR AND GREAT BASIN LATE NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING TROUGHING. AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT DUE TO ITS NORTHERLY ORIGINS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM JUST ABOVE AVERAGE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF THE UPPER RIDGE. FRACASSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 That 12Z GFS 2/27-8 is a major IP/ZR event for the ATL-AHN corridor with 0.75"-1" of qpf. A big mess if it verified! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I don't specifically know but stumbled on this last night. Great read which might partially explain some of the model fails this season. Thanks! It seemed to me that the energy is pretty much off the grid at this point. I would expect changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 That 12Z GFS 2/27-8 is a major IP/ZR event for the ATL-AHN corridor with 0.75"-1" of qpf. A big mess if it verified! Larry, you on the coast? Or Dunwoody? Did you see anything frozen this last go round as I know you were up there then? I'm seeing snow at the boarder now, so that's my cue to look outside later Be nice to see a flake again, with more chances coming! I got to ten two nights running, which is saying something most winters, on one monitor anyway. Last night it was 10, 11, and 12 for the three. Not bad at all with moisture running underneath. One of these days one will hit. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Larry, you on the coast? Or Dunwoody? Did you see anything frozen this last go round as I know you were up there then? I'm seeing snow at the boarder now, so that's my cue to look outside later Be nice to see a flake again, with more chances coming! I got to ten two nights running, which is saying something most winters, on one monitor anyway. Last night it was 10, 11, and 12 for the three. Not bad at all with moisture running underneath. One of these days one will hit. T Dunwoody. I'm glad you're not giving up on a nice sleetstorm for next week! It is quite possible imo. Very cold Feb/Nino combo equals a win usually. Keep hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Euro has nothing for Tue/Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Euro is also slower with bringing the cutoff out of the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Euro is dry for Tuesday. Go figure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Euro has nothing for Tue/Wed. That one always seemed like more luck than anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Euro is trying for next weekend. Energy looks descent and it's screaming across TX @132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Euro doesn't look like it's gonna cut it. We need that wave in the west to slow down a little bit to get more interaction with the northern energy. It's not far off from the GFS though so we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Euro swings a system to our south and out to sea on Thursday....might still have something for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The models have been showing a day 6-7 potential for several days now and it keeps getting pushed back. The pattern clearly is going to collapse day 9 (next Saturday) so anything around then will probably cut as heights are rising in the east. Good news is that if/when the potential day 6-7 event falls through that will be it for a while, if not till next winter. So if your holding out hope for something next weekend, it ain't happening, atleast in the SE. We would need something to happen Wed-Friday for a suppressed event and that is looking more and more unlikely by the day. I would think by Sunday afternoon we will have a clue whether Wed-Friday has a chance, if not, we can look forward to more seasonal temps next weekend and beyond and that will be that for majority outside of the north-west NC/SC/GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Thanks! It seemed to me that the energy is pretty much off the grid at this point. I would expect changes. No problem. Outputs will obviously change many times yet again but that discussion did shed some light on some of the model madness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 drunk doc looks DRASTICALLY different. And not for the good. LOL NADA next FRI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The models have been showing a day 6-7 potential for several days now and it keeps getting pushed back. The pattern clearly is going to collapse day 9 (next Saturday) so anything around then will probably cut as heights are rising in the east. Good news is that if/when the potential day 6-7 event falls through that will be it for a while, if not till next winter. So if your holding out hope for something next weekend, it ain't happening, atleast in the SE. We would need something to happen Wed-Friday for a suppressed event and that is looking more and more unlikely by the day. I would think by Sunday afternoon we will have a clue whether Wed-Friday has a chance, if not, we can look forward to more seasonal temps next weekend and beyond and that will be that for majority outside of the north-west NC/SC/GA.So just to be clear your saying everything keeps getting pushed back yet your taking a pattern collapse as gospel Ok...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The models have been showing a day 6-7 potential for several days now and it keeps getting pushed back. The pattern clearly is going to collapse day 9 (next Saturday) so anything around then will probably cut as heights are rising in the east. Good news is that if/when the potential day 6-7 event falls through that will be it for a while, if not till next winter. So if your holding out hope for something next weekend, it ain't happening, atleast in the SE. We would need something to happen Wed-Friday for a suppressed event and that is looking more and more unlikely by the day. I would think by Sunday afternoon we will have a clue whether Wed-Friday has a chance, if not, we can look forward to more seasonal temps next weekend and beyond and that will be that for majority outside of the north-west NC/SC/GA. A little too early to be saying all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I don't know if I agree that after Friday all chances are over...but Euro certainly looks to be in delay mode with a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm starting to get sick of mid-range Euro fantasy storms that never happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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