Doorman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012906/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png 6z GFS at 84 hrshttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012906/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png hows that look at 102 ? tracking with the free euro maps ......will give you gray hairs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The Euro may be suffering from the bias of leaving energy back in the SW, the 06Z NAM continues to look very amped at 84 hours, the NavGEM at 00Z resembled the Op Euro which is bizarre to say the least inside 5 days. I would take a solution around the 06Z GFS right now, the GEM is over done, I don't think we will see anything that strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 very similar upper air pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Tuesday morning looks to have a very widespread distribution of below zero temperatures in the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 euro 200mb has the bend (turn) up... not a flat solution on that layer ATM so this fits in with the Nam and GFS ideas -imo http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/ECMWF/00/US/ecmwfUS_200_spd_120.gif Monday the ESRL guidance is stable http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f096_us.html Nice Storm....not a monster http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1422528773 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 may not be such a bad thing considering how awful as it was with the last storm The Euro showed a blizzard for the northeast while other models showed a clipper south of DC heading to sea. The euro never wavered on the main idea while the other models jumped around like chickens with their heads cut off. The euro missed NJ/NYC by 50 miles, while nailing most of the region correctly. Awful, I think not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The Euro showed a blizzard for the northeast while other models showed a clipper south of DC heading to sea. The euro never wavered on the main idea while the other models jumped around like chickens with their heads cut off. The euro missed NJ/NYC by 50 miles, while nailing most of the region correctly. Awful, I think not. I would agree with this, and I stated earlier when this storm first popped up as a potential. We can't allow ourselves to throw out the euros solution on this storm because of mondays storm. Imo we've had far more conversations regarding how the euro nailed a storm 4 days out rather than it busted... This was a rare bust for the euro and ONLY a bust in certain places where we KNEW the western shield would be cut sharp... We should have taken a blend of the 2. Watched the short terms which all pointed towards an Easter precip shield. So let's not discredit the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=uv250&runtime=2015012906&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=393.3333333333333 Door #1 Door #2 Door #3 eat your heart out Monty Hall until we sample things will be just a bit murky my very crude guide ATM follow the 32 deg surface temp line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The UKMET is more amped like some of the GEFS ECMWF ensembles and CMC. It's possible we can see big changes over the next few days as there is plenty of spread on the intensity and closeness to the coast. The one thing that looks like a good bet is that the block and 50/50 should keep the cold in place ahead of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 This will probably be the storm everyone ignores and then it'll hit us with 2 feet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The 00z EPS members are split into two main camps. Most members are a blend of the 00z GFS/GGEM or a complete miss to the southeast strung out mess. The members are fairly evenly split. In any event the mean snowfall for the area is 3-5" from south to north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Suppression is certainly one of my fears for this one. The PV is nosing South and there is a HP north of the lp as well. Definitely cant cut but CAN possibly shoot ots while just grazing the area. Wouldnt be fair to not include this as a distinct possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Suppression is certainly one of my fears for this one. The PV is nosing South and there is a HP north of the lp as well. Definitely cant cut but CAN possibly shoot ots while just grazing the area. Wouldnt be fair to not include this as a distinct possibility. Yea with this impressive cold push from the far north , suppression seems a strong opportunity to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 g http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&year=2015&identifier=Oceanwinds15g&mission=WX&agency=NOAA&aircraft=2&month=01&day=29&product=hdob&latest=1 Winter Flight Data Today this will give the american models an edge trust me on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The stronger guidance phases in the polar jet. Whether that happens and if so when is the biggest factor in both track and strength. I would like to see the GFS trend back towards its 00z solution. 06z stepped back towards the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The UKMET is more amped like some of the GEFS ECMWF ensembles and CMC. It's possible we can see big changes over the next few days as there is plenty of spread on the intensity and closeness to the coast. The one thing that looks like a good bet is that the block and 50/50 should keep the cold in place ahead of the storm. f96.gif Big Changes in which direction ? I think everyone is going to try and avoid a bust - so many will be playing the middle of the road solution for obvious reasons - GEFS mean is the way to go right now IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Suppression is certainly one of my fears for this one. The PV is nosing South and there is a HP north of the lp as well. Definitely cant cut but CAN possibly shoot ots while just grazing the area. Wouldnt be fair to not include this as a distinct possibility. I distinctly remember last year when one of these Southern sliders came through. It was modeled to hit the CNJ folks and then every run shifted it further south and further south because the PV and confluence was much stronger than initially modeled and it completely missed us and nailed the DC folks. I'm not saying that's whats going to happen here but dont be shocked if it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I distinctly remember last year when one of these Southern sliders came through. It was modeled to hit the CNJ folks and then every run shifted it further south and further south because the PV and confluence was much stronger than initially modeled and it completely missed us and nailed the DC folks. I'm not saying that's whats going to happen here but dont be shocked if it does. remember that as well - was watching the Eagles game and they were getting 2-3" an hour rates... I fear potential supression of the system as well, but just going to let this one play out however it does, still recovering from the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 This will probably be the storm everyone ignores and then it'll hit us with 2 feet lol Pretty much everyone's already downplaying this to be barely anything but okay ignore it if you must. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Computer Guy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Winter Flight Data Today this will give the american models an edge trust me on this When do those numbers get plugged into the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The Euro ensembles continue to love the middle to end of next week for something huge. Some interesting dates showing up in the CIPS analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 When do those numbers get plugged into the models? CG Today's 18z runs ---0z tonight is the full monty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The Euro ensembles continue to love the middle to end of next week for something huge. Some interesting dates showing up in the CIPS analogs. I havent even peaked that far ahead yet. What kind of system is it? Miller A or B? Which analogs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 CG Today's 18z runs ---0z tonight is the full monty I guess we will have to wait until tonight to get a better grip on the situation.. maybe not even until tomorrow 12z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I guess we will have to wait until tonight to get a better grip on the situation.. maybe not even until tomorrow 12z runs 830 I can't stress this enough... Nice storm ....Not a monster keep this in mind we also need a better PAC side ingest Nam Preview 12z run http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015012912/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Pretty much everyone's already downplaying this to be barely anything but okay ignore it if you must. I'm not ignoring it honestly. Im keeping an eye on it. Like every storm it has the element of surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 830 I can't stress this enough... Nice storm ....Not a monster keep this in mind we also need a better PAC side ingest Nam Preview 12z run http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015012912/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png Yea I am not expecting a monster either... a moderate snowfall would definitely make due. NAM still looks pretty amped up? correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The setup screams suppression city to me. I think the Euro has the right idea here. At this point I would bet on the other models trending towards it over the next model suites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The 12z NAM continues to look amped up in the long range which is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yea I am not expecting a monster either... a moderate snowfall would definitely make due. NAM still looks pretty amped up? correct? Yes http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015012912/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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