Forecast/storm discussions and part II Manitoba Mauler

[Baroclinic Zone]

TWC went out of their way to downplay it. That's why you can't always hog one model and my argument to Kevin back on Saturday about the GFS. Yes the GFS can be wrong, but in this case along with a little bit of pattern recognition...I thought going 24-36 for NYC was a bit much.

The bust potential there was magnitudes greater than points east.   

[CTWeatherFreak]

Maybe in this setup it matters.....i need to read up on exactly when it matters and doesnt matter.....ive had good storms the past 5 yrs....got in the death band in feb 2013 and feb 2006....

I was just going to mention that memorable 2013  Death Band you bring up...  How awesome was that.. So, yea, sometimes this oft mentioned CV snow shaddow is  a factor and sometimes it isnt... Id be curious as to what you find out.

[Mr. Windcredible!]

The bust potential there was magnitudes greater than points east.

All the more reason to have been more conservative back that way. Too much love for the Euro this time around. People I think forget one of the things that makes it so great is its consistency. And even when it's wrong, it can be slow to correct....which is unfortunately what happened here. When it started making small shifts east while several other models had already made larger jumps east, that should've been a clue.

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[Typhoon Tip]

Could be advisory later this week, esp interior.

 

 

...oh man.  After this up here, an advisory wouldn't even be noticed...  People would be out running around in short sleeve shirts in relief if they got an advisory.  'Thank got we've improved all the way to an advisory -- now we can live normally again!'

[peteradiator]

Im located in the North Conway nh area. was disappointed this am like a lot of people however im a little intrigued by this band setting up and trying to push west. snow has really picked up here now and flakes are bigger. watching some satellite runs , Im somewhat convinced I see a jump or pivot west. im not an expert but I see something. not that it will pan out for all, but a little reprise seems possible.

[danstorm]

TWC went out of their way to downplay it. That's why you can't always hog one model and my argument to Kevin back on Saturday about the GFS. Yes the GFS can be wrong, but in this case along with a little bit of pattern recognition...I thought going 24-36 for NYC was a bit much.

 

Agreed... the NWS came into the NYC forum to clarify that the 24-36" shading really meant 24-30... anyway, when your low amount is already a top 3 storm for the city, it's tough to justify.  18-24", hell, even 12-18 will get the public's attention! And you can always ramp up gradually if need be, and no one will notice. 

 

People at work were just throwing out, "well, it looks like 3 feet for the city", as if that is something that is so easy to attain.  That 24-36" range is a 1/50 - 1/200 year event for the city.

 

Not irresponsible, and certainly could have occurred (I was always skeptical for NJ), but let's just say overzealous.

[nutmegfriar]

Old Lyme is back in some pretty good snows, along with an uptick in the breeze.  What a storm.

[bobbutts]

When you're near a sharp gradient of obscene snowfall totals there's huge bust potential.  You could give some huge range like 6-36" but that isn't very useful.  It's the kind of thing that's just impossible to summarize in one little map with numbers on it.  You need time to explain that changes in track that are very hard to predict could change the forecast drastically.

[Mr. Windcredible!]

Old Lyme is back in some pretty good snows, along with an uptick in the breeze. What a storm.

Nice little band for you guys. Wish it would spiral back this way and give us a final hurrah...but looks like just a few flakes. What's your total that way. About 13-14" here.

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[Mr. Windcredible!]

When you're near a sharp gradient of obscene snowfall totals there's huge bust potential. You could give some huge range like 6-36" but that isn't very useful. It's the kind of thing that's just impossible to summarize in one little map with numbers on it. You need time to explain that changes in track that are very hard to predict could change the forecast drastically.

Agreed u can't go 6-36"...but also not wise to go with a biblical number as your upper bound when your on the western fringe and there's a great degree of uncertainty. What's the harm in a middle of the road forecast of 12-20"? Really think many got carried away in the hype and the last minute nature of this storm,

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[metagraphica]

Old Lyme is back in some pretty good snows, along with an uptick in the breeze.  What a storm.

 

 

Nice little band for you guys. Wish it would spiral back this way and give us a final hurrah...but looks like just a few flakes. What's your total that way. About 13-14" here.

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23" total so far.  Still coming down nicely here in the very SE corner of Salem.

[bboughton]

What do people make of this postmortem? http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/how-meteorologists-botched-the-blizzard-of-2015/

[codfishsnowman]

Is the valley actually causing that ir is it councidental? I think the ct valley thing gets overplayed a bit.....im saying its not a death sentence by any stretch.....

you live in spfd or northampton???? its remarkably real for us folk!!! its not overplayed at all in fact its like THE BIG PINK ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM that very few are brave enough to talk about.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

All the more reason to have been more conservative back that way. Too much love for the Euro this time around. People I think forget one of the things that makes it so great is its consistency. And even when it's wrong, it can be slow to correct....which is unfortunately what happened here. When it started making small shifts east while several other models had already made larger jumps east, that should've been a clue.

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Didn't see this posted yet, good read.

 

 

http://thevane.gawker.com/why-nycs-historic-blizzard-didnt-live-up-to-the-hype-1681962448

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Forecasters so often tend to only look forward, seeing each model run as a reset.  That's what happened with the Euro.  Each time it shifted NE someone on the edge to the NE justified it as okay, ignoring the shifts because it's the euro and always right.

 

The simple clown Euro Wx snowfall maps, taken all the way back from the 1/24/0z run forward provided a fascinating and undeniable animation    With a  relatively stable model like the Euro it's IMO extremely useful to look at those generic, quantifiable summary type trends to see what the model is doing and moving.  Particularly with the snowfall clown map it kind of gives a rough look at temps, QPF etc which can give a very quick snapshot.

 

It's useful with the GFS as an offset to the Euro too, but the NAM...forget it. 

 

I asked on the NYC thread too.....why did NCEP/HPC summarily and repeatedly dismiss the RGEM/CMC?  It appears this was done simply because the Euro carried so much weigh the other way, it was discounted. 

[radarman]

I think one of the reasons totals are reduced out here is poor snow growth not just qpf issues. Baking powder, I just shoveled and it's surprisingly heavy.

This. I attribute the lackluster totals to poor growth and a somewhat glancing blow. Boxing Day I felt had more meso/micro climate reasons that caused the underperformance even though that was also a bit of a glancing blow for us N of Springfield as well. I had a massive radar hole rip open over my head in Noho that night.

The classic valley screwgie is 12/92 and these were certainly not that for many reasons.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

you live in spfd or northampton???? its remarkably real for us folk!!! its not overplayed at all in fact its like THE BIG PINK ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM that very few are brave enough to talk about.

 

Springfield to Holyoke over to S. Hadley/Amherst can be pretty bad sometimes but the rest of the Valley does fine.  Greenfield to Brattleboro is usually ok and even the outskirts of Northampton ends up doing better than those areas.

[The 4 Seasons]

Finally got around to doing the final totals map for this storm, going back and getting a lot of storms done. Couldn't find the obs thread but this works.

 

[H2Otown_WX]

5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Finally got around to doing the final totals map for this storm, going back and getting a lot of storms done. Couldn't find the obs thread but this works.

 

 

Lol, not a chance in hell that Watertown had 11.5.

[The 4 Seasons]

17 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Lol, not a chance in hell that Watertown had 11.5.

hell disagrees with you matty boy.

[H2Otown_WX]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

hell disagrees with you matty boy.

That's a fake total for sure. We had about 6".

[The 4 Seasons]

Trained Spotter says otherwise, i know you there at the time so i believe you but based on the surrounding SE and NE reports it doesnt look far fetched

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, H2Otown_WX said:

That's a fake total for sure. We had about 6".

+5.5

[H2Otown_WX]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Trained Spotter says otherwise, i know you there at the time so i believe you but based on the surrounding SE and NE reports it doesnt look far fetched

Lol, alright well, I was on the NE side of town I can't imagine another part of town getting more seeing as there was an E-W gradient. That total from Thomaston looks right.

[The 4 Seasons]

If you come back to Connecticut i'll change it 

[HoarfrostHubb]

I miss some of the posters in this thread.  

[dryslot]

RIP Clinch aka messanger...........