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Forecast/storm discussions and part II Manitoba Mauler


Damage In Tolland
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I don't agree with NAM being onto anything.  It can't keep continuity between runs wrt to jet streak tracking, changing from run to run across the last 24 hours of cycles... back and forth.  No folks -

it has yet to show the same solution for two consecutive runs
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it has yet to show the same solution for two consecutive runs

 

 

I don't agree with NAM being onto anything.  It can't keep continuity between runs wrt to jet streak tracking, changing from run to run across the last 24 hours of cycles... back and forth.  No folks - 

Correct- But one would still rather see it move e or se as we continue to close in on the storm rather than the opposite. Is the nam perfect? no. But it's still taken into account. If it would ever be right, it would be short time.

 

Will rgem follow?

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This NAM run breaks continuity all over the place with vorticity maxima ... I'd take this run with a grain of salt...

 

Correct me if I'm wrong on two fronts John as I know you pay attention to these things:

 

1.  The RGEM is often the most NW/tucked model in these situations.

2.  The 18z RGEM and the 0z NAM are very similar.  Later tuck and roll.

 

I believe although the NAM is obviously going to miss details and no model will be spot on, the trend will continue tonight for a later initial capture.  Whether it's convective feedback or just a true blue bias this last 18 months, seems to happen with every capture.

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it has yet to show the same solution for two consecutive runs

 

Exactly .. .as much as we try, folks' just keep latching onto the latest run to promote their sadistic intent to feel horrible about matters. 

 

You know what?  who cares -- are you guys really that freaked out about missing 29" over solid foot of fun?  Hell, if it snow 5" here, plowable, in this pattern?  you got like the start...   

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I don't agree with NAM being onto anything. It can't keep continuity between runs wrt to jet streak tracking, changing from run to run across the last 24 hours of cycles... back and forth. No folks -

the nam has had no continuity whatsoever

it has yet to show the same solution for two consecutive runs

Well geez guys, which model HAS shown continuity then?

Oh wait...

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I don't agree with NAM being onto anything.  It can't keep continuity between runs wrt to jet streak tracking, changing from run to run across the last 24 hours of cycles... back and forth.  No folks - 

 

Meh - I will disagree.  It's not much different than the RGEM which came at 40/70 from the SOUTH this last run.

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3294_100.gif

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