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Amateur predictions for 1/24 storm


BxEngine

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Coast NYC south and east- rain sleet and snow 2-10"

NYC north and west to 287- some rain, sleet and snow 4-12"

287 north and west- sleet and snow 4-8"

Jackpot is just north and west where there isn't as much taint but also gets good banding

Secondary jackpot on the coast where despite lots of taint good banding gets it's done

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Second Guess - Lowering the call at this point.

Poconos, far NW NJ, Orange and Sullivan Counties in NY - 1-5

Warren, Morris, Passaic, Rockland Counties - 1-5

I-78 corridor - 1-5"

Bergen and Westchester Counties to Southern CT 1-4"

New York City - 1-2

Long Island - 1-2

I-195 corridor - 2-4

Damn I went from 12-18 to 1-5 just like that ;)

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Changing forecasts from run to run is a bad practice.

3-6" for my area but im down in pa.

its ok to change forecast well in advance of a storm especially this season when the models have been unreliable - wouldn't surprise me if we ended up with a coating or less in parts of the metro - look at what happened with the clipper most  got a few snow showers and a spotty coating in most areas in the metro when a couple of inches was forecasted as for mondays storm anything is still on the table.........

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I think most north of I-195 see 2-4", some locations north/west of NYC, perhaps centered on I-287 north of I-80 and then into Orange/Putnam see 5 or 6". The wild card seems to be the front end, if that comes in robustly before the warm punch arrives, the higher end of those totals should be realized. 

 

This should teach everyone forever that a rapidly deepening surface low along a good track doesn't always mean a big snowstorm. If the overall pattern is roaring progressive and the mid level lows are totally strung out and can't organize, the storm will still be a strung out disorganized mess. The mid level low development is what wraps precip around to the northwest, causes the CCB and dynamics to crash in. If you look at the 700 and 500mb charts, you'll see why this is likely to be a disappointment. Those lows don't really develop until the storm is in the Gulf of Maine.

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I think most north of I-195 see 2-4", some locations north/west of NYC, perhaps centered on I-287 north of I-80 and then into Orange/Putnam see 5 or 6". The wild card seems to be the front end, if that comes in robustly before the warm punch arrives, the higher end of those totals should be realized. 

 

This should teach everyone forever that a rapidly deepening surface low along a good track doesn't always mean a big snowstorm. If the overall pattern is roaring progressive and the mid level lows are totally strung out and can't organize, the storm will still be a strung out disorganized mess. The mid level low development is what wraps precip around to the northwest, causes the CCB and dynamics to crash in. If you look at the 700 and 500mb charts, you'll see why this is likely to be a disappointment. Those lows don't really develop until the storm is in the Gulf of Maine.

 

exactly.

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From NW to SE

3-6" mid Hudson valley, Sussex co nj

4-7" nw of 287 in nj (excluding Sussex co), sw Conn and lower hv (excluding southern westchester)

3-5" NENJ, south central Conn, southern westchester, nyc and boroughs (excluding southern bk and queens), northern nassau and nw Suffolk

2-4 CNJ, central/southern Nassau, southern queens, southern bk, SE Conn, rest of western Suffolk

1-3" central Suffolk

C-2" eastern Suffolk, jersey shore

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For NYC:  snow seen but not heard.[Never more than 2" measured during event]   Washed away with nothing left on ground Sat. PM.     LI goes positive by time cold air gets to coast.   No other predictions.   Another disappointment but it never showed phasing anyway. 

 

 Again maybe it creates a 'psuedo' -NAO by going to 50/50 after passage and helps the Sunday/Monday mess be all snow.     Otherwise it is wait for the Feb3, Feb6-7 tag team combo to try for this type of miracle again.

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My offical forecast for NYC given all of the latest model data

 

This evening - Snow likely after midnight. Low 31F. Chance of snow 90%. Snow accumulations of 2-4"

 

Saturday - Snow likely before 6AM, then rain and snow likely. Becoming all snow by 2PM. High of 35F. Chance of precip 90%. 1-2" additional accumulation.

 

Saturday evening - Snow likely before 6PM, then snow showers before midnight. Chance of precip 60%. Snow accumulations of less than 1" possible.

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Revised forecast

North and West of 287 mostly snow with some sleet 4-8"

287 South, West and East to NYC line 3-7" snow to sleet and freezing rain and briefly back to snow

NYC General area and Northern Nassau an North East Suffolk 2-6" snow to sleet to rain back to snow

South Shore Nassau and all of the rest of Suffolk

C-2" mostly non accumulating snow and sleet to rain back to non accumulating snow

Based on the nice SW flow currently once again I think this is a total bust on the south shore. We start as snow with temps in the mid 30s quickly go to sleet and then rain with up to a couple slushy inches on colder surfaces

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Final call:

South of I-195 and east of I-95 (southern and eastern NJ): Coating to 2", all snow quickly washed away

Most of NYC area, Long Island, I-78 corridor to I-95: 2-4", much if not all of the snow washed away by rain and temps spiking to near 40

NW of NYC up to I-287 and I-80: 4-7", snow mixed with sleet, maybe some rain closer to the city

I-287/I-80 intersect and NW in NJ and southeast NY, also I-84 corridor: 5-10", all snow

 

The backlash looks to be a sloppy mix for places near the coast, and the front end will likely go over to rain and sleet within a few hours of the snow starting along the South Shore and the mix line should make it to White Plains/Morristown/Hartford. All in all a very pedestrian event for the city, coast and south from there and more notable inland but not major.

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Final call:

South of I-195 and east of I-95 (southern and eastern NJ): Coating to 2", all snow quickly washed away

Most of NYC area, Long Island, I-78 corridor to I-95: 2-4", much if not all of the snow washed away by rain and temps spiking to near 40

NW of NYC up to I-287 and I-80: 4-7", snow mixed with sleet, maybe some rain closer to the city

I-287/I-80 intersect and NW in NJ and southeast NY, also I-84 corridor: 5-10", all snow

 

The backlash looks to be a sloppy mix for places near the coast, and the front end will likely go over to rain and sleet within a few hours of the snow starting along the South Shore and the mix line should make it to White Plains/Morristown/Hartford. All in all a very pedestrian event for the city, coast and south from there and more notable inland but not major.

 

Sooo young...sooo cynical.

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Sooo young...sooo cynical.

 

Just to follow up...I'm a reasonably jaded woman myself...I like reading Mencken & Ambrose Bierce *very* much...but you don't want to run the risk of becoming *too* negative.

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