BxEngine Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Use this thread, leave the discussion thread for...get this....storm discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 ..I think 3-6 inches NYC is a good call right now . .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 First Stab Poconos, far NW NJ, Orange and Sullivan Counties in NY - 1-3" Warren, Morris, Passaic, Rockland Counties - 3-5" I-78 corridor - 4-8" Bergen and Westchester Counties to Southern CT 2-4" New York City - 3-6" Long Island - 4-7" I-195 corridor - 6-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 NYC metro:5 to 10 inches. Higher amounts east. (Subject to change) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 wide spread 3-6" perhaps 6-9" as you head north and east of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 First Guess - clearly an interior event at this point. Poconos, far NW NJ, Orange and Sullivan Counties in NY - 12-18 Warren, Morris, Passaic, Rockland Counties - 8-12 I-78 corridor - 4-8" Bergen and Westchester Counties to Southern CT 2-4" New York City - 2-4 Long Island - 2-3 I-195 corridor - 2-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 First Guess - clearly an interior event at this point. Poconos, far NW NJ, Orange and Sullivan Counties in NY - 12-18 Warren, Morris, Passaic, Rockland Counties - 8-12 I-78 corridor - 4-8" Bergen and Westchester Counties to Southern CT 2-4" New York City - 2-4 Long Island - 2-3 I-195 corridor - 2-5 lol cant tell if this is a joke or u just wishcasting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 At this point, here is my call for this one : (I think some of the areas that mix will make up for it in the way of heavier snow, while others that don't mix further NW will have similar amounts with overall less intense, but more persistent snows)..... I believe that the best call would be to factor in some mixing and even a changeover for a time possible, especially for our areas further south and east. Sleet and mixing is even a possibility into the NNJ suburban areas, though probably not far northwest. This is a storm that has a lot of potential and not just a passing widespread 3-6 type thing. As with every significant storm, there are areas that could have 10" not far from areas that see only 5", due to where banding sets up. This often occurs as separate bands.....closer to the low center where a mix or even rain can quickly turn to very heavy snow, as well as further NW, where the all snow area has a band develop somewhere overhead and linger for some time NW NJ higher elevations/SNY : 5-9" highest amounts in banding 10-14" NNJ/CNJ/W+C-LI : 3-6" highest amounts in banding 8-12" SNJ/E-LI : 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 First Stab Sucking substience: Poconos, far NW NJ, Orange and Sullivan Counties in NY - 2-6" Warren, Morris, Passaic, Rockland Counties - 4-8" Prime location: Bergen and Westchester Counties to Southern CT 8-12+" Maybe early mixing, then CCB: I-78 corridor - 6-10+" New York City - 6-10+" Maybe prolonged mixing, but prolific CCB dumpage potential: Long Island - 5-10+" I-195 corridor - 5-10+" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 First Guess - clearly an interior event at this point. Poconos, far NW NJ, Orange and Sullivan Counties in NY - 12-18 Warren, Morris, Passaic, Rockland Counties - 8-12 I-78 corridor - 4-8" Bergen and Westchester Counties to Southern CT 2-4" New York City - 2-4 Long Island - 2-3 I-195 corridor - 2-5 Hope this is a joke because that would fail miserably. Inland areas arent gonna do nowhere near as well as coastal folks with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 First Guess - clearly an interior event at this point. Poconos, far NW NJ, Orange and Sullivan Counties in NY - 12-18 Warren, Morris, Passaic, Rockland Counties - 8-12 I-78 corridor - 4-8" Bergen and Westchester Counties to Southern CT 2-4" New York City - 2-4 Long Island - 2-3 I-195 corridor - 2-5 Clearly ? BTW " Long Island - 2-3 " - There`s a chance they see the best banding at the end and those totals would occur in an hour . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 anyone calling for 12+ is over doing it as of now, but each to their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Clearly ? BTW " Long Island - 2-3 " - There`s a chance they see the best banding at the end and those totals would occur in an hour . I know...such an untrue comment. anyone calling for 12+ is over doing it as of now, but each to their own. Disagree. High ceiling with this event especially if it closes off. This has the potential to be as classic as they come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I know...such an untrue comment. Disagree. High ceiling with this event especially if it closes off. This has the potential to be as classic as they come. I agree. There is nothing absolute this far out...there are a ton of possible solutions still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Heavy snow in these systems tends to be limited to where the best banding occurs. You likely won't see a completely filled radar screen like you would in a SWFE event. Instead deformation banding will take over with very light snow falling outside of that. Anyone caught in these mega bands could easily see 2"+ per hour snowfall rates. That's why we love mature winter cyclones at this lattitude. You always have winners and losers in these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metTURNEDpro Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Heavy snow in these systems tends to be limited to where the best banding occurs. You likely won't see a completely filled radar screen like you would in a SWFE event. Instead deformation banding will take over with very light snow falling outside of that. Anyone caught in these mega bands could easily see 2"+ per hour snowfall rates. That's why we love mature winter cyclones at this lattitude. You always have winners and losers in these situations. mid Long Island 8-16 nyc 6-10. Hudson valley 3-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 4-8 regionwide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 So early for this stuff , you guys are nuts . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Personally I think it's way too early to be making specific predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 So early for this stuff , you guys are nuts . ha ha ha exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Of course its too early. But better to have it contained here than the storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 At least this thread was named "amateur predictions" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Of course its too early. But better to have it contained here than the storm thread. agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 There is no harm in amateurs making snowfall predictions a few days out. If people bust nobody will care. We all know why media outlets and paid mets need to play in conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottynic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 its a monster map-of-new-jersey-cities.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 its a monster Dude thats awful. AC will see some snow too. Terrible map. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 its a monster If I'm on the border of the snow/no snow area, is there still a chance I'll see some ? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 If I'm on the border of the snow/no snow area, is there still a chance I'll see some ? Thanks Sounds like you need to put down the blunt lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Sounds like you need to put down the blunt lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 5-12 areawide. NYC: 4-8" WLI: 4-8" (locally 10") ELI: 6-12" (locally 14") NWNJ: 10-14" CT: 10-12" I see a lot of mixing issues on the coast for the first few hours before turning to all snow rather quickly. That'll keep totals relatively low compared to the strength of the low as it passes by. That said I wouldn't be surprised in the lightest if we see 10"+ widespread in WLI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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