burgertime Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Edit 2: No, too dry. 500 mb flow looks like it won't quite go moist WSW. But wow, it looks cold! Not sure I buy it but gives a lot of GA snow and NC cashes in on probably 2-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Euro is ew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yeah, the low over MO is not good, but somehow gets the job done, at 216. , there was a low just S of TX, what happens to it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Megaclipper is our consolation prize. Eh. Why am I looking at a D10 op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Not sure I buy it but gives a lot of GA snow and NC cashes in on probably 2-4 inches. Instead of a Gulf system, as you said there is a clipper that dives SE and then combines with a coastal for some snow. Interesting. I'd much rather see a nice juicy Miller A, However. Plenty of time to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Megaclipper is our consolation prize. Eh.GFS had a run or two that showed that look after the initial 384 bomb, a few days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 The Euro is just windshield wipering back and forth. It could easily go back to the more moist Miller A/WSW 500 mb flow solution. However, if not, we still have intense cold to look forward to with snow showers quite possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS had a run or two that showed that look after the initial 384 bomb, a few days ago Well, at least we wouldn't strike out. A nice 1-3"/2-4" megaclipper would at least put us at ease with all of Feb Feb ahead of us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 This look of the 0Z Euro suggests more Arctic air will come down after this first batch (not the very impressive west coast ridging) and that could come in at a better angle for Miller A action. Let's see what the EPS shows for the 11-13. No matter what, the 1/31-2/6+ period is looking quite exciting in the world of wx. We can't ask for much better than this. It is pretty rare to see such an extreme pattern being modeled like this day after day. We could very well be looking at a very memorable period. If wx enthusiasts aren't pumped by the potential of this general look of the model consensus for the SE US, I don't what could get them pumped. By the way, the NAO is closer to neutral near the end of this run than the 12Z Euro had for the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Suppressed looking system on the 6z as the high pressure is coming in much stronger compared to the 0z run if the GFS for next weekends system. Like seeing that right now. Edit: looked suppressed at 240, at 252 heavy precip moving into Georgia and south Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 You central and eastern NC'ers will love this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS stays fairly consistent while the EURO brings...a clipper? Don't worry fellas, she'll come back north. Don't get too excited, GA/SC/E NC peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Fwiw, the 6Z GFS has a widespread, major winter storm from a classic tracking weak Miller A for a large portion of the SE US 2/1-2, even including the coast at Charleston for the 2nd year in a row! It includes Macon. The 6Z GEFS concurs with this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Fwiw, the 6Z GFS has a widespread, major winter storm from a classic tracking weak Miller A for a large portion of the SE US 2/1-2, even including the coast at Charleston for the 2nd year in a row! It includes Macon. The 6Z GEFS concurs with this threat. Would that be snow or ZR over the Atlanta area? Look to me like a cold pocket reaches well into the heart of Georgia on that run. Also, is that a second low that developed west of Tampa? It seems to have vanished over the next 12 hours. Curious what that would do (better with more moisture or worse with temps) for snowfall chances along the coast? Lots of time to ponder, but that sort of setup is new to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Fwiw, the 6Z GFS has a widespread, major winter storm from a classic tracking weak Miller A for a large portion of the SE US 2/1-2, even including the coast at Charleston for the 2nd year in a row! It includes Macon. The 6Z GEFS concurs with this threat. Morning, Larry! I know it's foolish to worry about precip shield and what-not this far out, but for giggles, how far north does the precip get on the GEFS? Cant get the maps to load on WxBell past D9 right now. OP run says nada north of NC (except a small sliver of far SEVA) Also, the storm appears to be delayed an entire day. Instead of Superbowl Sunday, it looks to not come in until Monday? Not sure I like that trend either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Fwiw, the 6Z GFS has a widespread, major winter storm from a classic tracking weak Miller A for a large portion of the SE US 2/1-2, even including the coast at Charleston for the 2nd year in a row! It includes Macon. The 6Z GEFS concurs with this threat. I wouldn't quantify this as a Miller A, more along the lines of an overrunning event/suppressed Miller B, IMO... The European operational is also the only model (operational &/or ensemble) trying to breakdown the western flank of the anomalous North Pacific ridge in the Bering Sea w/ a series of vorticity lobes that spin off from a main trough currently located over north-central Russia. Its solution doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me in that regard, of course, (along w/it completely cutting off the southern stream piece in the southwestern US), this discrepancy causes issues downstream & os a primary reason why its depicting this system as a Canadian Clipper as opposed to a bonafide overrunning event as is currently shown in all other guidance, including the ECMWF Ensembles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Morning, Larry! I know it's foolish to worry about precip shield and what-not this far out, but for giggles, how far north does the precip get on the GEFS? Cant get the maps to load on WxBell past D9 right now. OP run says nada north of NC (except a small sliver of far SEVA) Also, the storm appears to be delayed an entire day. Instead of Superbowl Sunday, it looks to not come in until Monday? Not sure I like that trend either. At this range the models tend to wobble instead of trend. We're still in the mode of just asking the question is a storm in the eastern US possible during this time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I wouldn't quantify this as a Miller A, more along the lines of an overrunning event/suppressed Miller B, IMO... The European operational is also the only model (operational &/or ensemble) trying to breakdown the western flank of the anomalous North Pacific ridge in the Bering Sea w/ a series of vorticity lobes that spin off from a main trough currently located over north-central Russia. Its solution doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me in that regard, of course, (along w/it completely cutting off the southern stream piece in the southwestern US), this discrepancy causes issues downstream & os a primary reason why its depicting this system as a Canadian Clipper as opposed to a bonafide overrunning event as is currently shown in all other guidance, including the ] So at this point, you believe any solution cutting the energy off in the sw is likely incorrect? Also, what is the Miller A we are seeing now being driven by? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 This is 6-10 day GFS Ensemble analog 500mb pattern is just beautiful, I couldn't be much happier w/ that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I wouldn't quantify this as a Miller A, more along the lines of an overrunning event/suppressed Miller B, IMO... The European operational is also the only model (operational &/or ensemble) trying to breakdown the western flank of the anomalous North Pacific ridge in the Bering Sea w/ a series of vorticity lobes that spin off from a main trough currently located over north-central Russia. Its solution doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me in that regard, of course, (along w/it completely cutting off the southern stream piece in the southwestern US), this discrepancy causes issues downstream & os a primary reason why its depicting this system as a Canadian Clipper as opposed to a bonafide overrunning event as is currently shown in all other guidance, including the ECMWF Ensembles... webber - I would view it as a weak Miller A. What do you use to distinguish between the 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 All modeling looks good with the cold air setup (for now), but disagree on the handling of the southwest wave. GFS suite looks very good right now. Euro leaves a lot to be desired with keeping it buried in the southwest and relying on northern stream energy. Canadian is kind of in between the 2. I would lean toward us seeing at least some of that southwest energy come out, but long way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Getting at least somewhat convinced of chance of frozen/freezing precip here in north GA a week from Sunday. Perfect pattern with cold air in place for a couple days, southern branch system with a weak low skimming along the GOM coast. Pretty good consistency with the ensemble runs- biggest question for us is snow or ZR/IP? I am rooting for the former, not a huge fan of ZR. ill take it but I'm hoping for a strong low skimming the GOM coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Morning, Larry! I know it's foolish to worry about precip shield and what-not this far out, but for giggles, how far north does the precip get on the GEFS? Cant get the maps to load on WxBell past D9 right now. OP run says nada north of NC (except a small sliver of far SEVA) Also, the storm appears to be delayed an entire day. Instead of Superbowl Sunday, it looks to not come in until Monday? Not sure I like that trend either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Some tweets from Allan Huffman this morning. Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 2h2 hours ago The evolving weather pattern looks friendly to winter weather chances by Jan 31st through Feb 3rd. overnight models continue to support this Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 2h2 hours ago Strong/Cold vortex moves into southern Hudson Bay/Quebec/Ontario which provides cold air source and suppresses polar jet south Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 1h1 hour ago This helps keep a steady supply of cold high pressures dropping for Canada into Upper Midwest then slide east across Great Lakes into NE. Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 1h1 hour ago Thus providing cold air into Southeast/mid-Atlantic. Part 2 active southern jet sends impulses that "should" stay suppressed to the south. Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 1h1 hour ago And not cut to the Lakes. Thus chances for rain/snow/ice line to be further south. Details are still to be ironed out. But ... Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 1h1 hour ago I really like winter storm chances centered around Super Bowl Sunday or following Monday. Carolinas/N Ga/TN north in particular. Stay tuned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 0z & 6z GEFS looking very nice. Definitely a strong signal for a serious storm to affect the south next weekend. And now, just for a little fun, here are a couple of the best snow maps from the 6z GEFS panels... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 0z & 6z GEFS looking very nice. Definitely a strong signal for a serious storm to affect the south next weekend. And now, just for a little fun, here are a couple of the best snow maps from the 6z GEFS panels... That second map would make almost (except Mobil Al & Florida) everybody on this board happy. I would love to see that outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Nice Wow. panel 12 is a Widre special. Growing confidence among the mets it seems there will definitely be something wintery going on next weekend. imo if we're still looking at this Sunday/Monday night the specifics of whether its a strung out [baggy?] lp (or series of strung out lps) vs a miller A can start to be nailed down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 When looking at runs this far out, it is important t remember the bias of each model and figure them into the equations. The GFS tends to be too far east initially and corrects west and north as we get closer to the time in question. When looking at the EURO, it tends to hold back energy in the SW and does not allow it to come out initially but usually progresses eastward as we close in on the last 2-3 days. That is why the EURO does not look too impressive and presents us with nothing more than a clipper while the GFS is ramping the storm up too far East and South (and I think both will correct over time) so we have plenty of model watching coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 No sense worrying about every model run until at least 72 hours out and even that is questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 So at this point, you believe any solution cutting the energy off in the sw is likely incorrect? Also, what is the Miller A we are seeing now being driven by? TIA webber - I would view it as a weak Miller A. What do you use to distinguish between the 2? As I mentioned yesterday on banter, I'm not buying an extremely suppressed solution (like February 1973 & December 1989 for ex) as is being depicted by the 6z GFS unless we see a decent +NAO/AO spike to offer even further suppression to any incipient disturbance within the subtropical branch of the jet. For now, the European is alone in withholding the piece in the southern branch deeper into the SW US & off the Baja, most, if not all other guidance is faster & further to the east. Unified West/West-Southwest flow aloft in association w/ a cut-off upper level low over the Desert Southwest is characteristic of an overrunning/Miller B event... For Miller A, we usually like to see it come out of the Northwest/West-Northwest around the base of the 50-50 Low off Atlantic Canada, & the westward shift of this feature into Quebec & Ontario as in Miller B/Overrunning is one of the distinguishing factors (along w/ the placement of the core of the high-latitude blocking (Pacific (-WPO/EPO)=Miller B, Atlantic (-NAO/AO= MillerA) that stratifies the storm types. If you look at the mean vector wind & geopotential height contour orientation in & around Texas, you'll usually get a good idea of the storm type we're going to be confronted w/... Here are the mean z500 for some recent Miller Bs... SW-WSW flow over Texas. December 3 2002 January 9, 2011 February 14, 2003 January 29, 2010 Now for some Miller As... Note the mean West/West-Northwest flow over Texas December 17, 2009 January 1, 2002 December 1, 2000 January 24, 2000 The upcoming set-up... WSW-SW flow over Texas, even on the suppressed looking operational GFS = Miller B/Overrunning Additionally, the overall synoptic pattern configuration doesn't favor a Miller A at this juncture, and once again, unless we see the Atlantic pull a rabbit out of the hat w/ robust -NAO/AO, we're likely not going to see a Miller A. Negative 200hpa VP is fixing to show up over 30-60E band again as the main active cell of the MJO crosses through the Atlantic/Africa in the next week or so. I'm looking for our 9th winter storm in a row in central NC w/ -VP in 30-60E... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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