packbacker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 This is 6-10 day GFS Ensemble analog 500mb pattern is just beautiful, I couldn't be much happier w/ that... Interesting your 73 analog showing up. Several other smaller hits too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Interesting your 73 analog showing up. Several other smaller hits too. We shouldn't have to resort to the February 1973 analog unless the NAO decides to pull a fast one on us, and if that ends up being the case, we'd really be talking about suppression... even areas down to the I-10 corridor and the Gulf coast would be @ play for wintry weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 We shouldn't have to resort to the February 1973 analog unless the NAO decides to pull a fast one on us, and if that ends up being the case, we'd really be talking about suppression... even areas down to the I-10 corridor and the Gulf coast would be @ play for wintry weather Be funny if suppression rules for early Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 That 2010 analog would be interesting because it was a multi day event that featured every ptype except rain. We started as snow, went to sleet then freezing rain and ended as snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Surprised no one mentioned the Euro EPS last night. It looked freaking fantastic overall. I don't have access to panels but the ENS mean seemed to indicate lots of potential for snow in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 As I mentioned yesterday on banter, I'm not buying an extremely suppressed solution (like February 1973 & December 1989 for ex) as is being depicted by the 6z GFS unless we see a decent +NAO/AO spike to offer even further suppression to any incipient disturbance within the subtropical branch of the jet. For now, the European is alone in withholding the piece in the southern branch deeper into the SW US & off the Baja, most, if not all other guidance is faster & further to the east. Unified West/West-Southwest flow aloft in association w/ a cut-off upper level low over the Desert Southwest is characteristic of an overrunning/Miller B event... For Miller A, we usually like to see it come out of the Northwest/West-Northwest around the base of the 50-50 Low off Atlantic Canada, & the westward shift of this feature into Quebec & Ontario as in Miller B/Overrunning is one of the distinguishing factors (along w/ the placement of the core of the high-latitude blocking (Pacific (-WPO/EPO)=Miller B, Atlantic (-NAO/AO= MillerA) that stratifies the storm types. If you look at the mean vector wind & geopotential height contour orientation in & around Texas, you'll usually get a good idea of the storm type we're going to be confronted w/... Here are the mean z500 for some recent Miller Bs... SW-WSW flow over Texas. While I agree it looked more like a Miller B there was probably a much easier way to explain I think. When I think of a Miller A I think of a crawling low going OTS then bombing and crawling up (perfect case). 6z looks like it starts tracking the low to ATL then a secondary low forms @252 off the coast. The thing is you can't see what happens between those hours...but yea to me for that reason it looked more like a Miller B. That type of solution is what more people should be rooting for if we have the cold air in place as it would a big widespread storm affecting more folks. It would also probably favor different P-types as Jeremy stated. Personally I love those oldschool storms where we have a sandwich with snow on top and ice in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Surprised no one mentioned the Euro EPS last night. It looked freaking fantastic overall. I don't have access to panels but the ENS mean seemed to indicate lots of potential for snow in the SE. Yes, SW low more robust and progressive compared to prev run. That's what I want to see right now. Don't want to the PJ to overtake the field as it has trended toward a more consolidated PV further south in recent model runs. That's great for the strength of the HP but gotta keep that STJ strong enough to keep it from being sheared out completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 That's great for the strength of the HP but gotta keep that STJ strong enough to keep it from being sheared out completely. Which is what we've fought in the past two storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 While I agree it looked more like a Miller B there was probably a much easier way to explain I think. When I think of a Miller A I think of a crawling low going OTS then bombing and crawling up (perfect case). 6z looks like it starts tracking the low to ATL then a secondary low forms @252 off the coast. The thing is you can't see what happens between those hours...but yea to me for that reason it looked more like a Miller B. That type of solution is what more people should be rooting for if we have the cold air in place as it would a big widespread storm affecting more folks. It would also probably favor different P-types as Jeremy stated. Personally I love those oldschool storms where we have a sandwich with snow on top and ice in the middle. That's a big if for this area....miller b's more often than not leave mby in the dreaded 33 and rain while just to my north and west(gsp/clt/greenwood) cash in. Hopefully the cold hangs on this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 That's a big if for this area....miller b's more often than not leave mby in the dreaded 33 and rain while just to my north and west(gsp/clt/greenwood) cash in. Hopefully the cold hangs on this time It's a chance I'm willing to take! When it comes to wintry threats, it's every man, woman, and child for themselves ! GFS looks like it's still about to be game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Midday GFS looks intersting for SEVA and NENC. Once the clipper on Tuesday hits the coast it almost looks like the GFS is hinting at setting up a Norlun trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS leaves the energy behind and too much northern stream this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Speak of the devil, 12z GFS cutting off the SW low similar to the Euro... overbearing polar jet. Ah the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS leaves the energy behind and too much northern stream this run Yep, a lot stronger w/ that clipper in the northern stream coming out of the Midwest on Saturday. Very euroish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Speak of the devil, 12z GFS cutting off the SW low similar to the Euro. Theme of the winter, but atleast it's cold, really cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 While I agree it looked more like a Miller B there was probably a much easier way to explain I think. When I think of a Miller A I think of a crawling low going OTS then bombing and crawling up (perfect case). 6z looks like it starts tracking the low to ATL then a secondary low forms @252 off the coast. The thing is you can't see what happens between those hours...but yea to me for that reason it looked more like a Miller B. That type of solution is what more people should be rooting for if we have the cold air in place as it would a big widespread storm affecting more folks. It would also probably favor different P-types as Jeremy stated. Personally I love those oldschool storms where we have a sandwich with snow on top and ice in the middle. Right, we usually see in a Miller A, one primary region of low pressure form in the Gulf of Mexico or off the southeastern US & intensify as it progresses north-northeastward generally up or off the Carolina & US Eastern seaboard & sharp contrasts in precip types w/ relative lack of icing results... & Miller Bs usually feature an initial primary low pressure center or upper level low track inland towards the Appalachians, Tennessee Valley, etc. while a transfer of energy occurs towards the coast, & in the process multiple air masses can become entrenched aloft= mixed precipitation. What I'm doing here is discrediting the GFS idea for what may appear to be a Miller A as a region of low pressure riding along a considerable baroclinic zone slides off well to our southeast (in reality it is still an overrunning event), by pointing out specific features (like high-latitude North Pacific blocking, WSW-SW flow over Texas, etc.) all of which are more akin to Miller Bs/Overrunning. Thus, I'm not only suggesting that the setup as a whole is more favorable to a Miller B, but to some extent that the GFS actually appears to contradict itself here by producing a solution that doesn't agree w/ historical precedence. At this point, we shouldn't get too worked up over details anyway, it's just nice to see, truly for the first time this winter, aside from the conditions in place, that we have an unusual amount of run-run consistency within the models... The GFS for instance has shown this storm the last 7 of 8 runs in some form or fashion w/ deviations in & around the I-40/I-20 corridors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Theme of the winter, but atleast it's cold, really cold. Yep, how many times has that happened this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Theme of the winter, but atleast it's cold, really cold. Plenty of time for it come back (storm) and even go there (cutoff) again. What bothers me is the caving "towards" the last couple euro solutions. Alignment in that direction would take some air out of this 'watch' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Plenty of time for it come back (storm) and even go there (cutoff) again. What bothers me is the caving "towards" the last couple euro solutions. Alignment in that direction would take some air out of this 'watch' Yes, it is going more Euro instead of the Euro going more GFS. I guess if it falls apart it is better to do it early thn to wait until next week. Gives it time to "come back around." But this is really frustrating to see this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yep, how many times has that happened this year?LOL. For the people wanting snow I wouldn't worry about this run, you should be happy, cold is there, you have energy in the SW.I do like where it's going day 10, PV heading east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Drives the snow line not only to New Orleans but clear into the gulf of mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Right, we usually see in a Miller A, one primary region of low pressure form in the Gulf of Mexico or off the southeastern US & intensify as it progresses north-northeastward generally up or off the Carolina & US Eastern seaboard & sharp contrasts in precip types w/ relative lack of icing results... & Miller Bs usually feature an initial primary low pressure center or upper level low track inland towards the Appalachians, Tennessee Valley, etc. while a transfer of energy occurs towards the coast, & in the process multiple air masses can become entrenched aloft= mixed precipitation. What I'm doing here is discrediting the GFS idea for what may appear to be a Miller A as a region of low pressure riding along a considerable baroclinic zone slides off well to our southeast (in reality it is still an overrunning event), by pointing out specific features (like high-latitude North Pacific blocking, WSW-SW flow over Texas, etc.) all of which are more akin to Miller Bs/Overrunning. Thus, I'm not only suggesting that the setup as a whole is more favorable to a Miller B, but to some extent that the GFS actually appears to contradict itself here by producing a solution that doesn't agree w/ historical precedence. At this point, we shouldn't get too worked up over details anyway, it's just nice to see, truly for the first time this winter, aside from the conditions in place, that we have an unusual amount of run-run consistency within the models... The GFS for instance has shown this storm the last 7 of 8 runs in some form or fashion w/ deviations in & around the I-40/I-20 corridors. Great post and great educational info/explanation on Miller A and Miller B storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 12z cmc not as strong w/ the northern stream energy so I'd suspect a different result than the 12z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 LOL. For the people wanting snow I wouldn't worry about this run, you should be happy, cold is there, you have energy in the SW. I do like where it's going day 10, PV heading east. Best overall look for cold and snow we have had all winter in the MR to LR. Keep your motion pills handy and stay away from the cliff! Hard to imagine we keep run to run consistency for over a week on this. Best news is the big picture. Hopefully the pattern holds and we have more opportunities beyond this storm into Feb. Today's ensemble indices look much better for a -AO, PNA tries to turn + after Feb 1. Even the NAO moves toward neutral. I have not seen them but heard that the Euro picture was even better for a more favorable PNA, AO, NAO after Feb 1. Maybe our time is finally here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 12z cmc does bring snow to the SE but not a lot. Everything appears to be suppressed due to a strong push of cold. I'm waiting on my 500 maps to update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 12z cmc does bring snow to the SE but not a lot. Everything appears to be suppressed due to a strong push of cold. I'm waiting on my 500 maps to update. Sure does look a lot like that 1/29/14 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yes, it is going more Euro instead of the Euro going more GFS. I guess if it falls apart it is better to do it early thn to wait until next week. Gives it time to "come back around." But this is really frustrating to see this winter.Good analysis! The suppressed look is great 10 days out! Cold has been our biggest problem so far this winter, so if the cold is showing up, that's a win in my book. Like today's system , we all thought was going to magically get cold from somewhere and give everybody snow, even though none of the models showed cold air! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Boy, if this run of the GGEM aint anything else, it's C-O-L-D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Sure does look a lot like that 1/29/14 event. Yeah it does, I sure am hoping for better results than that storm though...LOL. It is cold though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 12z GEFS is disappointing vs previous runs. Much much drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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