burgertime Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Need precip first, worry about cold later, kind of like today's "event" I'd much rather have the cold in place. This run looks a little funky considering all the other models...but it's probably the most likely outcome given what has taken place all winter. Hopefully it's just a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Amazing run for eastern TN for sure. Western yes, eastern TN not so much. Doesn't matter though at this point, but at least it brought something out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Congrats KY...they get almost a foot of snow statewide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I'd much rather have the cold in place. This run looks a little funky considering all the other models...but it's probably the most likely outcome given what has taken place all winter. Hopefully it's just a blip.Yeah, nothing on earlier runs today, to an apps runner? Crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I'd much rather have the cold in place. This run looks a little funky considering all the other models...but it's probably the most likely outcome given what has taken place all winter. Hopefully it's just a blip. A few members had that track, a few were great for us and a few were suppressed. We shall see, need that ridge a tick east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 From one extreme to another, eh? Here, the PJ shifted way west to phase with most of the energy with the STJ system. We need our happy medium to fit the bill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 CMC looks like a weak clipper...but at the surface a low does pop off the coast but heads out to sea. Hard to tell what's going on without seeing 5h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 CMC looks like a weak clipper...but at the surface a low does pop off the coast but heads out to sea. Hard to tell what's going on without seeing 5h. What time period are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 What time period are you talking about? The Feb storm. Is there another one we're tracking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The Feb storm. Is there another one we're tracking? LOL, since there is a northern stream parade of sorts, I had no clue what time frame you were discussing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 As Pack said, the ensemble members are spitting out different solutions like this. The mainstay is the cold air dropping down our way. Just need the two to link up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 When you start talking northern stream involvement, the predictability which is already low, sinks to the canyon floor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It's sad, but when it comes to go time on this storm, I feel that somehow, through waa, or whatever, we will not be cold enough, no scientific reason, just based on our winter so far, patterns repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The Feb storm. Is there another one we're tracking? What are your thoughts on the system in the southwest, do you think it comes out fully, partially, or ends up being held back? Seems like every option is certainly still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The Canadian is a lot like the GFS runs from earlier today, parking the low near Baja and keeping the northern stream too far east...so it's dry NW flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 GFS ensemble hints at a better scenario, looks nothing at all like the Op. I suspect that Op is total B.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 GFS ensemble hints at a better scenario, looks nothing at all like the Op. I suspect that Op is total B.S. Thanks Cheez. The voice of reason. Sounds like the 0z GFs Op needs a cab ride home this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 GFS ensemble hints at a better scenario, looks nothing at all like the Op. I suspect that Op is total B.S. Yea just overall it looked odd to me. Def. a better storm signal on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Noteworthy jump on the 1-16 day GFS Ens Mean clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Looks like the Euro has finally trended east with the STJ wave compared to the 12z. May still cut it off but is moving in the right direction. Has a 50/50 low in place so it's not going to pull what the 0z GFS did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Noteworthy jump on the 1-16 day GFS Ens Mean clown map Just checked out the individual panels. Much improved... pretty much looked the way they did before today's runs with several showing a long duration overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 For those of us who have followed the models for many years, what we saw today at 12z was very normal for a storm threat 8-10 days out. It is foolish to think you might stays in the bullseye for 30-40 straight runs. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Silence is speaking volumes about this run! Edit: at 240 on euro, there is a low off the Carolinas, cold looks good! Don't know what happens from 216 to 240 on the 24 hr panels. Not bad!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Silence is speaking volumes about this run! Edit: at 240 on euro, there is a low off the Carolinas, cold looks good! Don't know what happens from 216 to 240 on the 24 hr panels. Not bad!? Spoiler Alert: Nothing happens Not a drop of significant precip in the Carolinas on the 6 hour panels through 240 after the Monday rain clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Not a whole lot different than last year's 1/28 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 DT un-cancelling winter...Only reason I post it here is the clipper on Monday could bring snow down the NC/VA border. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45486-storm-disco-for-manitoba-mauler-012627/#entry3286527 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Pack, how did we do with that Jan 28 event? Well, I know you got screwed, but how did I do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Pack, how did we do with that Jan 28 event? Well, I know you got screwed, but how did I do? I am right under the "1.4", looks you are under the 3"+, you suck! Makes me want to punch a duck looking back at these winter events time after time fringing me and curving around. The mid-Feb did the same thing but from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Lol! PGV ftw! Thanks man. I have a feeling the monkey will be off your back on Feb 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Lol! PGV ftw! Thanks man. I have a feeling the monkey will be off your back on Feb 3. Monkey may leave but a gorilla is waiting behind. I think there is an event first week of Feb, I won't get snow but a big area in the SE will. Maybe like 1/28 last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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