tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Euro ensembles are mostly dry. I was going to mention this. It appears there was a significant reduction from the 12z euro yesterday in TN, and by extension NC and other parts of the SE. 12z had 25/51 members providing 6+ inches in the 10-15 for KTRI. 0z has far fewer. I still think the LR setup looks great on the modeling, and this far out in the SE, probably pointless to look at any details. We may or may not score, even if the large scale pattern sets up as a good one. Sometimes even great looking patterns at 5h don't produce. Such is life in the SE, although this is also one of the reasons snow in the SE is so special, b/c it so often doesn't work out. I am hoping for great trends on the modeling in the next several days, while we wait to hone in on any specific threats to move within day 5/6. I hope you guys over on that side of the hill can score once or twice before the winter is over! At the very least, we seem to be heading toward a large scale pattern that places many of the players squarely on the field! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 Yea, I suppose there's a couple decent one's... but the majority are to far west or too suppressed. It definitely doesn't look as good as it did a few days ago. Maybe I'm being too pessimistic? I looked more closely. Member 2 likely gives you ZR via CAD. Overall, I'd say that 1/3 of the members are threats to you...not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 8 or 10 members? You must be counting on backside snow with lows that run through the apps.. good luck with that. I would say there are 3 members at most that may give anyone in NC/SC,(outside of the mountains) snow. Though I don't like the look of these three as there's no wedging and cold air is arriving just in time,(probably rain to snow with boundary layer issues at best for anyone east of the apps in these depictions. There are 6 or so members that are dry.. and then 3 or 4 members that are massive 50 degree rain storms. None of the members point to a solution that was being painted a few days ago where we had plenty of cold air out in front of the storm along with CAD, remember all the freezing rain/sleet/snow solutions being depicted all the way into columbia and on down to the coast? None of the 6z GFS members have such setups. But anyways, like I said earlier, maybe I'm being too pessimistic. Hopefully we all get buried. I'm counting on the fact that the GEFS is seeing cold air and moisture around at the same time. Not concerned with the exact track right now as that will always be fluid. This whole winter we've lacked both at the same time even for backside snow. The overall look at 5h is encouraging. Again not totally buying but def do not agree that it's garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I'm counting on the fact that the GEFS is seeing cold air and moisture around at the same time. Not concerned with the exact track right now as that will always be fluid. This whole winter we've lacked both at the same time even for backside snow. The overall look at 5h is encouraging. Again not totally buying but def do not agree that it's garbage. Fair enough, Looks like its going to change drastically anyways on the 12z run. Appears as though we have a fully phased bomb developing out west.. just hope the cold air will be there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Fair enough, Looks like its going to change drastically anyways on the 12z run. Appears as though we have a fully phased bomb developing out west.. just hope the cold air will be there.. Yea this run should be better....we'll see. I like the fact that there is a high dropping into the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Well it's def. trying on this run 1036 dropping into the plains with a 1040 on it's heels. Looks like a high might be setting up for CAD as well. Meanwhile that cutoff low out west is just getting bigger and looks to eject some energy eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Well it's def. trying on this run 1036 dropping into the plains with a 1040 on it's heels. Looks like a high might be setting up for CAD as well. Meanwhile that cutoff low out west is just getting bigger and looks to eject some energy eastward.The SW is a monster at 186. Possible eastward movement?? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 @192...looks like this is gonna be a thread the needle storm. Energy is ejecting from that big cutoff in the southwest. Descent CAD signal and a 1040 high dropping down into the midwest. If this can get timed right it could be big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It's moving closer in time. We were seeing this on the edge of day 10, now we are seeing cold and precip on the playing field around day 7.5-8. Progress and baby steps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Probably will rot this run but the blocking being modeled is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Don't think this run is going to get the job done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It's moving closer in time. We were seeing this on the edge of day 10, now we are seeing cold and precip on the playing field around day 7.5-8. Progress and baby steps.... Overall this is a much better look...just not quite there. GEFS should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Overall this is a much better look...just not quite there. GEFS should be interesting. Definitely agree. The High seems to not be as strongly modeled as a few days ago, but would be plenty strong enough if it could just get in position. It's good that it sees a parent high spreading into the east, good CAD location for you guys. GEFS will definitely be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Well that cutoff is moving east now. Probably gonna get a big one at 240 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Well the GFS is interesting. It looks to me like it was confused as to the WAA and cold air actually funneling in. You can see how the cold air dips in eastern NC....threading the needle on this run. Bet the GEFS has some big ones on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Here's a rough sketch I've put together of the cumulative frequency of snowfall depth from the operational GFS since Thursday Afternoon, definitely gives you a true scope of the actual trends & variance among individual runs/solutions and of course the darker shades of blue are indicative of a higher frequency of snowfall being shown on the model... The I-40 corridor looks to be generally in the middle of things. West Texas & New Mexico appear to be the hot spots in this case, and even at this early juncture, it's a fairly plausible to think they'll see a classic blue norther out of this mess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 CMC is going to look like the GFS yesterday. Almost looks to turn into a bomb. Looks like it's just going to end up being a rainy cold front for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 CMC is going to look like the GFS yesterday. Almost looks to turn into a bomb. Looks like it's just going to end up being a rainy cold front for us. The more west solutions are popping up more and more. Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 CMC is going to be vodka cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The more west solutions are popping up more and more. Interesting... This is exactly why you want the cold to suppress everything too much for too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 "@RaleighWx: Trend with 12z guidance so far, with northern stream s/w to dig further south and west in 6-7 days. More room for overrunning to set up." Good trends guys. Relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 CMC is way inland, like over the mountains of kentucky inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 "@RaleighWx: Trend with 12z guidance so far, with northern stream s/w to dig further south and west in 6-7 days. More room for overrunning to set up." Good trends guys. Relax. Was just thinking this exact same thing. Energy comes out and cold is coming south. Someone scores, maybe many with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Little Ridging towards Greenland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Still looking good guys. The overrunning signal is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 GEFS defintely wetter then previous runs, ton of spread. Bulk of precip west of 85 into TN which argues more western solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I like the look of the gfs a lot. The key is just getting this s/w to eject out on time, not allowing the hp to build in too early, as it will squash the storm like the euro is showing. It's hopefully a bit of the euro model bias holding the s/w back in the southwest too long in the LR. If you inspect the GFS around hr 180, the CAD front is already starting to infiltrate. It truncates around 192 and the model loses this feature. If you look at the layered cold from NC up to SE Canada, along with the building HP, this screams ice/snow threat. Side note, the system coming in monday is really interesting too and has trended more closed off/negative. I would keep an eye on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 This is exactly why you want the cold to suppress everything too much for too long. Always keep in mind if not Feb and March there is always the June blizzard to hope for, lol. And it hasn't been so long since I recorded a low of 10.7...well, it was this winter anyway....and I still think there could be flurries Monday. The weather future is full of great promise..if you don't hope for too much....and expect less And, anyway, Goofy keeps coming up with bangdoozers out in crazy land and it wasn't doing that much until recently...good signs all....for the hopelessly needy, lol. And, yes, suppressed is best!!! Until right before it isn't suppressed any more.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 I see the 12 GEFS mean is even wetter than the 6Z. However, it is a bit warmer (~2C) on several panels. So, moisture is plentiful but I'm thinking there will be fewer cold Miller A members favorable for wintry in GA/SC/NC at least and more runners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Side note, the system coming in monday is really interesting too and has trended more closed off/negative. I would keep an eye on that. Fine minds think alike, lol. I've like the look of Monday for a few days now....if it can just pull down some moisture with it. Some runs it finds a lot of Ga. with at least a little precip T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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