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NNE Winter 2014-2015 Thread Part 2


klw

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I haven't seen any changes in the advisories maps yet, so the same Winter Storm Watches that cover most of Vermont and stretch into Northern New Hampshire and Northern New York are what's posted.  The afternoon update to the Winter Storm Watche text is below:

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

342 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

 

NYZ028-035-VTZ001>012-016>019-181000-

/O.CON.KBTV.WS.A.0002.150118T2100Z-150119T1800Z/

EASTERN CLINTON-EASTERN ESSEX-GRAND ISLE-WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-

ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-

WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-

EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLATTSBURGH...PORT HENRY...

TICONDEROGA...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...

ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...

MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...

RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...

RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...

KILLINGTON

342 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON

THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON CONTINUES THE WINTER

STORM WATCH...FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

 

* LOCATIONS...ALL OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE ENTIRE

  CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

 

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW

 

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 9 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW.

 

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...MAINLY EARLY

  MONDAY MORNING.

 

* TIMING...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BEGIN FALLING BY LATE

  SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CHANGING TO HEAVY WET SNOW LATER SUNDAY

  EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE WATCH AREA. THE

  HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL LATE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THE MID-

  MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.

 

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WILL CAUSE DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE

  TO SNOW ON ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES

  WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO HEAVY WET SNOW ACCUMULATING ON TREES AND

  POWERLINES.

 

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

 

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. LOWS SUNDAY

  NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

 

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

 

A read of the BTV NWS forecast discussion continues with a general 6-12" snowfall for the Central and Northern Greens:

 

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS OF 335 PM EST SATURDAY...BY LATER TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT MODELS CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON A WIDESPREAD WINTRY PCPN EVENT FOR OUR REGION. BEST CONSENSUS AMONG THIS MORNING`S ECMWF/GFS/GEM WITH UKMET SLIGHTLY EAST AND NAM FURTHER EAST STILL. GIVEN CONSISTENT AMONG FORMER SOLUTIONS...LEANED TOWARD A 50/25/25 BLEND OF GEM/ECMWF/GFS IGNORING THE 12Z NAM IDEA (NOTE THE 18Z NAM HAS TRENDED A TAD FURTHER WEST). PROBLEMATIC WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE 1) MARGINAL PBL TEMPERATURES INTO SUNDAY EVENING, 2) NARROW NATURE OF QPF AXIS WITH SHARP NORTHWESTERN EDGE, 3) UNCERTAINTY ON DEGREE OF DEFORMATION AXIS DEVELOPMENT AND THE CLOSING OFF OF MID-LVL ENERGY AS SYSTEM SWINGS BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT, AND 4) POTENTIAL SHADOWING EFFECTS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VT...AT LEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCHES AS IS WITH THIS PACKAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A HEAVY/WET 6- 12 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN GREEN MTNS AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF VT/NY. FUTHER WEST INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE SLV...QPF/SNOWFALL GRADIENT TAPERS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE. HIGHS TOMORROW RANGING THROUGH THE 30S UNDER MODESTLY GUSTY SOUTH FLOW...PERHAPS A SPOT 40 HERE OR THERE AS 500/1000M BACK TRAJECTORIES AT 18Z ARE ORIGINATING ALONG OR JUST OFFHSORE THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THEN GRADUALLY COOL SUNDAY NIGHT AS FLOW TRENDS WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AND SYSTEM SWINGS BY TO OUR IMMEDIATE EAST. LOWS BY MONDAY MORNING MID TO UPPER 20S NRN NY...INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS VT. LINGERING BACKSIDE SHSN/LIGHT SNOW THEN SLOWLY WANE OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY ON MONDAY UNDER MODEST COLD THERMAL ADVECTION. A FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS NRN VT COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HIGHS GENERALLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S IN MOST SPOTS.

 

The latest projected accumulations map does have some changes, showing the highest accumulations in the northern third of the state:

 

17JAN15C.jpg

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Wow, I ain't got a clue what to expect tomorrow afternoon and overnight. Could be the kitchen sink of precip, or hopefully it mainly falls as snow. We shall see! 12Z Euro and GFS sounded really bad, but I suspect that things moderate and come back east a bit over the next 12 hours. Probably more of a nowcasting situation this time around.

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Climatologically wise I wonder how unusual this is right at the coldest week of winter?  Storms that occur during the 3rd week of January right at the coldest week of the year would almost always have at least a fair amount of mix at the begining or end of the event.  Maybe it is not that unusual but this could be almost all rain except for some freezing drizzle or an hour or two of very light snow in the begining.  Maybe it does happen every few years but this isn't December or February

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Climatologically wise I wonder how unusual this is right at the coldest week of winter?  Storms that occur during the 3rd week of January right at the coldest week of the year would almost always have at least a fair amount of mix at the begining or end of the event.  Maybe it is not that unusual but this could be almost all rain except for some freezing drizzle or an hour or two of very light snow in the begining.  Maybe it does happen every few years but this isn't December or February

 

But it's January 2015 - two weeks of temps 8-9F below normal (thru today, month's avg temp here is 7.3F) then a rainstorm.  Natch!

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Just came back from my inaugural ride for 2015 snowmobile seaso. Beautiful night. Stars out and 14F. Trails in very nice shape. Did 20 miles and my 10 year old could have gone for 200 lol. At least he'll go to sleep with a smile on tonight. Just hoping whatever comes tomorrow night doesn't set us back.

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Got my fingers crossed here :)

 

 

Hey, you know what... the last time we were marginal like this you were poo-pooing it all day long and I told you to have faith. Then you fell asleep and woke up and then fell asleep and woke up and then fell asleep and then woke up and then the snow eventually stopped with close to a foot in the CPV.

 

Now the tables have turned. I don't have the faith for this one. Lift me up, oh Lorde, for that when I arise Monday morning at 2AM I may have some more plowing and shoveling to do upon this here Earth. Amen.

 

BTW, the wind is howling out there. Is it a good omen?

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Warning here for 4-7" under 1000ft, and 7-10" above 1000ft.

I agree with the BTV forecast for the most part...everyone starts as rain this afternoon then goes to heavy wet snow between 3z-6z. About half the QPF falls as rain and half as wet snow, though up at the higher elevations over 2000ft the ratio will be more in favor of snow. Total precip amounts of 1.0-1.5" from the Greens eastward. 0.5"-1.0" in the BTV area.

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Steady rise in temps since last evening.  When I went to bed it was still in the mid-single digits, 14F when I woke up this morning and now all the way up to 23F.

 

Feels downright balmy after the cold we've had recently.

 

It'll be interesting around here.  The valleys will warm for sure but maybe here, a little elevation will keep us in the snow regime for longer.

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I've added the latest BTV NWS graphics and related text for the upcoming event below.  With both the advisories and projected accumulations maps one can see the emphasis on the higher totals in the central part of the northern 1/3 of Vermont.  The general call for 6-12 inches of snow in North-Central Vermont and the Northeast Kingdom is noted in the forecast discussion, and I'd expect elevation to help out with that.  Our forecast down here in the Winooski Valley suggests something in the 3-7" range.

 

18JAN15A.jpg

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

420 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

 

VTZ002>004-006>008-016>018-182200-

/O.UPG.KBTV.WS.A.0002.150118T2100Z-150119T1800Z/

/O.NEW.KBTV.WS.W.0002.150119T0000Z-150119T1800Z/

WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-

EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...

JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...ENOSBURG FALLS...

RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON

420 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM

EST MONDAY...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...WHICH IS IN

EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM

WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

 

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VERMONT...AS WELL AS NORTH-

  CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

 

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW

 

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 10 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS

  WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION. AMOUNTS IN THE 7 TO 10

  INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED ABOVE 1000 FEET.

 

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...1-2 INCHES PER HOUR...MAINLY DURING THE

  OVERNIGHT HOURS.

 

* TIMING...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BEGIN FALLING BY LATE THIS

  AFTERNOON...CHANGING TO HEAVY WET SNOW LATER THIS EVENING AND

  INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE WARNED AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW

  WILL FALL LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE MID- MORNING HOURS ON

  MONDAY.

 

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WILL CAUSE DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS

  DUE TO SNOW ON ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. SCATTERED POWER

  OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO HEAVY WET SNOW ACCUMULATING ON

  TREES AND POWERLINES.

 

* WINDS...WEST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

 

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LOWS AROUND 30.

 

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW

ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW

COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES.

 

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL

MEDIA...OR GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON

THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

 

18JAN15B.jpg

 

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

AS OF 1011 AM EST SUNDAY...UPDATED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY START

TIME TO 18Z (EARLIER) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VT BASED OFF

RADAR/MODEL QPF TRENDS. WITH LOWERING OF INITIAL SFC TEMP PROFILES

IN THESE AREAS...THIS PREDICATED ADDING SOME MINOR ICING INTO THE

0.1 TO 0.2 INCH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. USED LATEST RAP13 THERMAL

PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHEST THREAT OF ICING LIKELY TO OCCUR IN OUR

LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY WHITE RIVER JCT SOUTHWARD

THIS AFTERNOON. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

 

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 514 AM EST SUNDAY...

BY NOON THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND BEGIN

MOVING NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CAUSING WIDESPREAD

PRECIPITATION FOR NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING

AND OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING

THIS TO BE A HEAVY QPF EVENT BUT THERE STILL REMAINS A STRUGGLE

OVER WHEN EXACTLY THE RAIN WILL SWITCH TO SNOW. CONSENSUS IS THAT

THE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTHEAST OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE

LEAVING A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT NEAR THE VT/NH BORDER. BOUNDARY

LAYER TEMPS DURING THE LOWS PROGRESSION REMAIN THE BIGGEST

CHALLENGE AS A SLIGHT INCREASE OR DECREASE WILL HAVE DRAMATIC

IMPACTS. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850-700MB FRONTOGENTIC FORCING AND

THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER

THE NEW HAMPSHIRE/VERMONT BORDER. LEANED ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST

TRENDED TOWARDS A BLEND OF ECMWF/SREF/GFS THERMALLY FOR THE

SYSTEM. A HEAVY/WET 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL OVER THE

NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT AFTER A PERIOD OFF

RAIN THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL IN THE

OVERNIGHT HOURS.

 

IN SOUTHERN VERMONT EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN

BEFORE TRANSITIONING LATE AS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE

BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT NEAR FULL MELTING OF ALL PERCEPTION.

AS THE PRECIP TRANSITIONS FROM RAIN TO SNOW THERE WILL BE A CHANCE

TO SEE A QUICK 3-5 INCHES OVERNIGHT. IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 4-6

INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE LOW MOVES TO

THE NORTH EAST. WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THERE WILL BE SHARP

GRADIENT IN THE QPF AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS WILL BE ENOUGH FURTHER

TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TO SEE ONLY A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE

ADIRONDACKS AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

 

AS THE LOW WRAPS AROUND BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY... A FEW LIGHT

OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES ON

THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG THE

GREENS.

 

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REGION

BEFORE COOLING OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN TO THE MID

TO UPPERS 30S. TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY TEMPS WILL BE

GENERALLY STEAD IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE

REGION.

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I see a bad situation the next couple of hours in my area.    19.2F freezing rain.  Everything quickly coated. People pulling off to clear their windows.  I think with the cold ground and the surface air so cold the roads will be near impassible for a few hours.  Not going to go above 32F for several hours

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I see a bad situation the next couple of hours in my area.    19.2F freezing rain.  Everything quickly coated. People pulling off to clear their windows.  I think with the cold ground and the surface air so cold the roads will be near impassible for a few hours.  Not going to go above 32F for several hours

There is a glaze on everything,  93 must be a disaster there are pretty much constant sirens, which isn't normal around here.

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Pretty impressive cold overnight in Northern Maine

NOUS41 KCAR 181429PNSCARMEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-190218-PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME918 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015...LOWEST WIND CHILLS SATURDAY MORNING...LOCATION                     TEMP      TIME/DATE       LAT/LON...MAINE......AROOSTOOK...FRENCHVILLE AIRPORT          -41 F     0321 AM 01/17   47.28N/68.31WMADAWASKA                    -32 F     0250 AM 01/17   47.35N/68.33WFORT KENT                    -30 F     0343 AM 01/17   47.27N/68.59W1 W LITTLETON                -29 F     0740 AM 01/17   46.23N/67.88WPRESQUE ISLE AIRPORT         -29 F     0555 AM 01/17   46.69N/68.04W2 W SAINT AGATHA             -29 F     0815 AM 01/17   47.25N/68.35WHOULTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPOR -28 F     0653 AM 01/17   46.12N/67.79WCARIBOU, ME                  -28 F     0954 AM 01/17   46.87N/68.01W1 ENE PRESQUE ISLE           -26 F     0715 AM 01/17   46.69N/67.99W1 SSE PRESQUE ISLE           -25 F     0802 AM 01/17   46.65N/68.01W3 NW MONTICELLO              -23 F     0450 AM 01/17   46.34N/67.89W5 SE GRAND ISLE              -23 F     0831 AM 01/17   47.24N/68.10W1 NW PRESQUE ISLE            -22 F     0902 AM 01/17   46.70N/68.03W4 E NEW SWEDEN               -21 F     0229 AM 01/17   46.96N/68.03W1 SSE FORT KENT              -20 F     0417 AM 01/17   47.25N/68.58W...HANCOCK...SEDGWICK RIDGE               -21 F     0538 AM 01/17   44.36N/68.61WBAR HARBOR                   -20 F     0836 AM 01/17   44.39N/68.21W...PENOBSCOT...MILLINOCKET MUNICIPAL AIRPOR -28 F     0653 AM 01/17   45.65N/68.69W6 NNW MILLINOCKET            -28 F     0801 AM 01/17   45.74N/68.73W2 E CLIFTON                  -25 F     0720 AM 01/17   44.82N/68.47WBANGOR INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT -21 F     0553 AM 01/17   44.80N/68.82W...PISCATAQUIS...GREENVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT -36 F     0656 AM 01/17   45.46N/69.55W1 E GREENVILLE               -35 F     0523 AM 01/17   45.46N/69.55W3 E BROWNVILLE               -27 F     0333 AM 01/17   45.32N/68.98W...SOMERSET...4 ENE BAKER LAKE             -31 F     0515 AM 01/17   46.30N/69.85W...WASHINGTON...1 SSE PRINCETON              -25 F     0733 AM 01/17   45.20N/67.56W1 W EASTPORT                 -22 F     0803 AM 01/17   44.91N/67.01WOBSERVATIONS ARE COLLECTED FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES WITH VARYINGEQUIPMENT AND EXPOSURE. NOT ALL DATA LISTED ARE CONSIDERED OFFICIAL.$$
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Dew points are still below zero in most places, and the road surface itself is likely still below freezing.

Friends just about to leave to Boston from Plymouth NH.  How is 93 in general southbound?? My temp is bouncing 3-4F every few minutes  Hate to ask you in this thread but can't find out and they will have a car full of friends

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