Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

NNE Winter 2014-2015 Thread Part 2


klw

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Bright sun and nicely missing every squall so far.  BUT look at the 12Z GFS compared to the 6Z run.  What the hell.  Goes from .10qpf to 2 to 3 inches of qpf for us up here.  Heavy rain/ heavy snow,  I have no idea what will happen.  Very confusing model runs for us.  Anyone with more Met experience than me want to chime in?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Flurry at 12:30 here in AUG, then a short but intense squall about 1:10.  Went from nothing to <100 yd visibility in about 15 seconds, with gusts 30+, though the best lasted only about 2 minutes. 

 

Words fail in trying to describe the horribility of the 12z gfs.  RUM qpf has gone from 1"+ yesterday (with snow-able temps) to 0.06" on the 06z to 3.3" at 37-40 on the 12z run.  2" to 3.5" throughout N&W Maine, maybe a covering of bye-bye snow at the end, but 3" RA in 15 hr during midwinter is a recipe for serious hydro issues.  I'm trusting (wishcasting) that it won't happen that way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Flurry at 12:30 here in AUG, then a short but intense squall about 1:10.  Went from nothing to <100 yd visibility in about 15 seconds, with gusts 30+, though the best lasted only about 2 minutes. 

 

Words fail in trying to describe the horribility of the 12z gfs.  RUM qpf has gone from 1"+ yesterday (with snow-able temps) to 0.06" on the 06z to 3.3" at 37-40 on the 12z run.  2" to 3.5" throughout N&W Maine, maybe a covering of bye-bye snow at the end, but 3" RA in 15 hr during midwinter is a recipe for serious hydro issues.  I'm trusting (wishcasting) that it won't happen that way.

Just like the storm a few weeks ago that looked to plague the mtns with 3+" RA, but ended up being less intense. This is going to be a real ball buster if it hits as modeled atm. We're one 6" storm away from doing some local riding. Be a shame to get fire hosed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.03" L.E.

 

There was 0.9" of snow with the passing squalls here at the house today, which is about half of what PF reported from the mountain, and that's pretty typical.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.9 inches

New Liquid: 0.03 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0

Snow Density: 3.3% H2O

Temperature: 7.9 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 7.0"

 

The current thoughts for the Sunday timeframe from the BTV NWS are very similar to what Will and PF were thinking in the thread for the potential storm:

 

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 316 PM EST FRIDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY PLACES HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST SUNDAY MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME VARIABILITY IN THE DATA...THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAKING IT MORE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW...BUT LESS PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS VERMONT WITH THE HIGHER NUMBERS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wsw posted. 3-7" for my p&c

 

I just saw that – the advisories map is below.  Winter Storm Watches currently cover most of Vermont and stretch into Northern New Hampshire and Northern New York:

 

17JAN15A.jpg

 

The associated text suggests general accumulations in the 4 to 8" range:

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

622 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

 

VTZ003-006>008-010-016-172200-

/O.CAN.KBTV.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-150117T1600Z/

/O.CON.KBTV.WS.A.0002.150118T2100Z-150119T1800Z/

ORLEANS-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...JOHNSON...STOWE...

ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...

ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD

622 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON

THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON CONTINUES THE WINTER

STORM WATCH...FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

 

* LOCATIONS...MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT.

 

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY

  EVENING AND IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

 

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW.

 

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...MAINLY MONDAY

  EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

 

* TIMING...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND

  THEN BECOME HEAVY SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING.

 

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WILL CAUSE DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE

  TO SNOW ON ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.

 

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

 

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS 12 BELOW TO 30 ABOVE ZERO. HIGHS IN THE

  LOWER 20S.

 

* VISIBILITIES...BELOW QUARTER MILE UNDER THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

 

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR

GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS

WEATHER SITUATION.

 

The forecast discussion suggests something in the range of 6-12" in the Greens for the higher terrain with some upslope on the back side:

 

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 440 AM EST SATURDAY...THANKS TO NWS ALBANY AND NWS GRAY ON A WELL COLLABORATED TRICKY FORECAST. WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ALL OF VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST AND BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DETERMINE EXACT PRECIP TYPE BUT WITH THE LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF TRENDING COLDER IT WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY SNOW EVENT OVER THE GREENS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

 

BY 18Z SUNDAY THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE

VIRGINIA COASTLINE UNDER STRONG CONVERGING LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL GENERATE AMPLE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL FEED DIRECTLY INTO THE REGION. AS THE TROUGH TRACKS NORTH IT WILL CLOSE OFF FORMING A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY EVENING JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE BY 00Z MONDAY. THERMAL PROFILES SHOW THAT AS THE FIRST PRECIP BEGINS TO FALL THE SURFACE ZERO AND 925 ZERO TEMPS WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION SO LIKELY OVER THE LOWER TERRAIN THE INITIAL PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT WILL FALL AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKING AT SNOW INITIALLY. BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z MONDAY THE AREA WILL SEE STRONG 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WHICH WILL DRIVE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE GREENS AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THAT WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS 12Z AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE GREENS WILL SEE POTENTIALLY 6-10 INCHES OVER A 12 HOUR WINDOW THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BY 18Z THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO WRAP UP. THIS WILL LEAD TO OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE LOW. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO THE OROGRAPHIC WRAP AROUND FLOW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE. BY MONDAY EVENING THE COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION HOWEVER UNDER THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A DUSTING TO 1 INCH OF UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREENS.

 

I OPTED TO LEAN ON THE ECMWF AND NAM BLEND AS THERE WAS MORE RUN

TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OVER THE GFS. THERE WILL BE A VERY STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND CURRENT PROFILES SUGGEST IT WILL FALL SOMEWHERE OVER THE NEW HAMPSHIRE/MAINE BORDER. IF THE TREND CONTINUES OF THE ECMWF AND NAM BEING SLIGHTLY COLDER THEN IT WOULD SUGGEST EVEN HEAVIER SNOWFALL TOTALS THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED.

 

I grabbed a copy of the current BTV NWS projected accumulations map – it looks like the sort that is just created from the data at this point and not smoothed etc.:

 

17JAN15B.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just looked at weather for the first time since last evening.  What a hard storm to predict for my area just south of the whites.  Grey Maines snowfall map goes from 1-2 to 4-6 in about a 10 mile drive.   I guess all I can say to people who keep asking is light snow developing tomorrow turning to heavy rain at night and probably changing back and ending on Monday.  Hard to see a rainstorm when its 7F at mid day but it is what it is at this point.  Our snowcover has that thick glaze so lots of runoff into the pond.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...