Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Doesn't have much support from the euro ensemble mean so right now I'd guess that the euro is an outlier. Agreed. I was just posting verbatim. I would think a front end mixy event is a much more likely outcome if we even get frozen. Antecedent airmass looks ok for a time. Long ways out though. Even though the se ridge is bothersome, a faster kick or weaker solution is still "possible". Definitely far from a big storm setup. Hench the big totals on the op run are way suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Yea true. While the arrival of the cold will be different here this year I think some of the calls of a better second half for snow may verify based on how we tend to backload in Nino winters (based on the stats I've seen others post here). LR isn't my thing and I think it's proven useless this winter anyways so who knows. Well, it would be pretty difficult not to do better than the first half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I wonder if there's ever been a completely snowless Dec. here? I can't recall one, but then my memory would not be stimulated by traces. Complete, utter shutout (not even a trace) has happened 5 times at BWI: 1885-86 1889-90 1978-79 1994-95 2001-02 It should be noted that two of those winters ended up above average overall though: 1885-86 and (especially) 1978-79. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Our avg is low enough we can score a few times and not want to die at least. That said, I've seen a lot of stats sharing around the northeast and the ytd numbers rolled forward are not very good in a pretty strong manner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Low heights south of the aleutians comes back on the 12z gefs. The overall d10+ period doesn't look that bad. No blocking but not a warm pattern either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Our avg is low enough we can score a few times and not want to die at least. That said, I've seen a lot of stats sharing around the northeast and the ytd numbers rolled forward are not very good in a pretty strong manner. This was on my facebook feed... and although we're not SNE I'd have to say it doesn't bode well even for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 As Ji would say...the 12z euro is a compete disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I don't remember many calls for a 594dm closed ridge just ne of the bahamas for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 As Ji would say...the 12z euro is a compete disaster I wish I could un-see what I just saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 27, 2014 Author Share Posted December 27, 2014 I don't remember many calls for a 594dm closed ridge just ne of the bahamas for this winter. That's been on the Euro for a couple days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I don't remember many calls for a 594dm closed ridge just ne of the bahamas for this winter. Did I lose my 12 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I don't remember many calls for a 594dm closed ridge just ne of the bahamas for this winter. Don't worry. it will be gone by tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 My gut tells me we will be talking about this winter for many years to come..and not in a good way...it's hard to think any other way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 As Ji would say...the 12z euro is a compete disaster It's a cold and dry alternating with wet and warm.. As long as the cross polar flow lasts, the real cold air may still dump into the west but some will get east behind cutters. One thing that is interesting on the 240 euro and on the gefs ens mean is the location of the strong/massive positive anomaly over AK. it's far enough north that you usually start getting flow undercutting it which might start bringing wet back into Ca but that might also at times shove the low latitude ridge east on occasion. that would be a plus. lately It's been way too far west and strong. That's part of the reason all the stronger shortwaves become some form of cutter, more like a nina year than nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Don't worry. it will be gone by tomorrow afternoon. It's been there for days. My post wasn't that it was a new revelation but more of saying that it looks like it's going to verify. What a weird year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Interestingly, the euro splits the strat pv d5 and keeps it split through the run. The more burly piece is on our side and not russia. We'll have to see how that plays out down the road because of the lag. At least one thing seems to be breaking in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 27, 2014 Author Share Posted December 27, 2014 It's been there for days. My post wasn't that it was a new revelation but more of saying that it looks like it's going to verify. What a weird year. Yeah, took me a minute to realize what you were saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 With all the model mayhem, maybe we shouldn't have believed that this was a Nino year either. Half joking, half serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Beautiful day today. Days like today make winters like 01-02 11-12 tolerable. At least it's sunny and warm. Anyway, 12-13 like second half coming in beginning Jan 17th and lasting through March 26th but better for the mid atlantic than that year. 19" - 34" median snow range incoming. Someone or all could see a MECS during this range, especially the MidAtlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 With all the model mayhem, maybe we shouldn't have believed that this was a Nino year either. Half joking, half serious. Technically we don't have a Nino.. yet. And its not behaving like one currently, so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Euro ens d10-15 isn't ideal but pretty acceptable. SE ridge gets a shove. 850's below freezing the entire period. Tons of cold in canada. It's at the very least period that "could" produce. Enough decent snow solutions on the members to stay interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Well the Nam provides an SECS with what looks to be the .50" liquid QPF line along DC and points south and east on the morning of December 30, so there is that. Still enough euro ens members showing a stripe to think the op could come around to something. Still enough time for models to agree on a minor event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Euro ens d10-15 isn't ideal but pretty acceptable. SE ridge gets a shove. 850's below freezing the entire period. Tons of cold in canada. It's at the very least period that "could" produce. Enough decent snow solutions on the members to stay interested. I think we are going to see the pattern flip around 1/15 or so....the SE ridge should be booted around Day 12 and from then on out we take another 8-10 to really get a very good pattern setup, it would not surprise me if something did occur in the window around 1/8 to 1/15 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 does this count as anything close to a SSW? link didn't work so this is what I was referring to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 does this count as anything close to a SSW? link didn't work so this is what I was referring to Not a major warming because zonal winds never reverse. It's definitely better than nothing though and some of it appears to propagate down into the troposphere. I think the SSW is over rated though. We should have an okay pattern after about 1/10 with possibly a good pattern by the end of January if the MJO comes around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I think we are going to see the pattern flip around 1/15 or so....the SE ridge should be booted around Day 12 and from then on out we take another 8-10 to really get a very good pattern setup, it would not surprise me if something did occur in the window around 1/8 to 1/15 though. Yea, there's no reason to panic. Euro ens and gefs look fine. The next 2 weeks are far from a writeoff look. Euro splits the strat vortex d5 @ 10/30/50hpa and keeps it split. Is this meaningful? I have no skill on this subject. I assume it isn't because there's no talk about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Yea, there's no reason to panic. Euro ens and gefs look fine. The next 2 weeks are far from a writeoff look. Euro splits the strat vortex d5 @ 10/30/50hpa and keeps it split. Is this meaningful? I have no skill on this subject. I assume it isn't because there's no talk about it. Yet we hear about SSW events all the time. Almost all models split the PV yet as you said there is no talk about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Yea, there's no reason to panic. Euro ens and gefs look fine. The next 2 weeks are far from a writeoff look. Euro splits the strat vortex d5 @ 10/30/50hpa and keeps it split. Is this meaningful? I have no skill on this subject. I assume it isn't because there's no talk about it. I think the PV will leave Canada for a time somewhere after 1/6-1/8, this will probably kick the panic into overdrive but it'll be back soon after. Some of the GFS ensembles have shown this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I think the PV will leave Canada for a time somewhere after 1/6-1/8, this will probably kick the panic into overdrive but it'll be back soon after. Some of the GFS ensembles have shown this too.A couple of weeks ago you were somewhat concerned about end of Dec and early Jan and turned out right. You seem bullish on mid Jan on?MJO FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 A couple of weeks ago you were somewhat concerned about end of Dec and early Jan and turned out right. You seem bullish on mid Jan on? MJO FTW? Mostly the QBO inevtiably weakening and the MJO likely going into phase 7 or 8....even if we get the QBO down to -18 its better than -23 to -25. I also like the EPO ridge, I think thats going to be tough to get rid of the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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