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Ending out December with a Potential Pattern Change


CoastalWx

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I'm in agreement with Scott and Ray on this one. Fact is that if we finish December with little/nothing at the major SNE climo sites, you are now running a fairly substantial deficit that would need to be erased by an above normal JFM to get to climo snows for the winter. I think the long range favors an above normal JF at least snow wise, which would likely negate at least some of the poor December, but to have a blockbuster(>150% of climo), you're going to need basically 200% of climo for JF, which while not impossible, is pretty unlikely no matter how great the pattern is. That's why even getting a 3-6" event, while relatively minor in the grand scheme of things, changes the outlook on a potential blockbuster significantly.

 

My winter outlook that I did back on November 1st was for 115-165% of climo snow, highest relative to normal in eastern areas and along the CP(http://www.southernconnecticutweather.com/forecasters-discussion/the-2014-2015-southern-connecticut-weather-winter-forecast). I'm still fairly confident that we'll fall somewhere in that range, likely closer to the lower end(I'd say 115-130% is a decent bet right now), but to get to the 150%+ range that would consider this winter a blockbuster, we're going to need to see one or more HECS type events IMO.

 

It's also just mentally painful for the SNE folk to see NNE well above climo while we are well below climo, but that's life, can't win them all. 

 

We'll see what happens. Like Scott says, if we don't get a -NAO and/or -AO, the odds of being above climo go down dramatically.

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I get tha it wasn't warm like the crap years...no one expects that, but the stats don't lie.

 

Well some of those statistical bad years were warm too. So, we had a yucky Dec so far, but not because of warmth. Sort a weird zone here.  That GOA trough is also a December staple, but Atlantic side sucked too. Lets see how it goes. December '04 kind of stunk until a swipe from the big 12/26 storm. 

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I'm in agreement with Scott and Ray on this one. Fact is that if we finish December with little/nothing at the major SNE climo sites, you are now running a fairly substantial deficit that would need to be erased by an above normal JFM to get to climo snows for the winter. I think the long range favors an above normal JF at least snow wise, which would likely negate at least some of the poor December, but to have a blockbuster(>150% of climo), you're going to need basically 200% of climo for JF, which while not impossible, is pretty unlikely no matter how great the pattern is. That's why even getting a 3-6" event, while relatively minor in the grand scheme of things, changes the outlook on a potential blockbuster significantly.

 

My winter outlook that I did back on November 1st was for 115-165% of climo snow, highest relative to normal in eastern areas and along the CP(http://www.southernconnecticutweather.com/forecasters-discussion/the-2014-2015-southern-connecticut-weather-winter-forecast). I'm still fairly confident that we'll fall somewhere in that range, likely closer to the lower end(I'd say 115-130% is a decent bet right now), but to get to the 150%+ range that would consider this winter a blockbuster, we're going to need to see one or more HECS type events IMO.

 

It's also just mentally painful for the SNE folk to see NNE well above climo while we are well below climo, but that's life, can't win them all. 

 

We'll see what happens. Like Scott says, if we don't get a -NAO and/or -AO, the odds of being above climo go down dramatically.

 

150% would be like 65" at BOS. To me, that isn't a blockbuster. Don't forget the coast many times has little through mid to late Jan. I had less than 10" through 2/1/13 and then had over 70 for the year.  Blockbuster for BOS is above 75" IMHO. So for me, it means nothing if the coast struggles in Dec.

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Novie, and the fact that not far away did real well. It's not our classic bad pattern. . So I think we need to see how we do after 12/25 to maybe 1/15.  

As far as the odds of a blockbuster, I couldn't care less what s NH got, or how Novie did.

A near shut out in December takes that off of board.

 

How much did KBED see in Dec 2004?

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Well some of those statistical bad years were warm too. So, we had a yucky Dec so far, but not because of warmth. Sort a weird zone here.  That GOA trough is also a December staple, but Atlantic side sucked too. Lets see how it goes. December '04 kind of stunk until a swipe from the big 12/26 storm. 

The key is what happens between xmas and NY....if the answer is nothing, then I couldn't care less about temp departures for the month.

blockbuster is off the table....I have over a half century of data that corroborates that.

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The key is what happens between xmas and NY....if the answer is nothing, then I couldn't care less about temp departures for the month.

blockbuster is off the table....I have over a half century of data that corroborates that.

 

Well I don't disagree. I was just stating that our stereotypical bad Decembers had different patterns than this one.

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Its pretty easy for the CP to make up a deficit relative to climo. As Scott noted, you can go from next to nothing in Dec and Jan and still turn a 150%+ climo year.

I mean, I reached climo in two events in 2013.

If we rock in January, this area will easily make up a deficit and surpass climo.

The interior, where averages are higher, it is obviously more difficult.

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Its pretty easy for the CP to make up a deficit relative to climo. As Scott noted, you can go from next to nothing in Dec and Jan and still turn a 150%+ climo year.

I mean, I reached climo in two events in 2013.

If we rock in January, this area will easily make up a deficit and surpass climo.

The interior, where averages are higher, it is obviously more difficult.

 

It was Will that said 120-150% OF CLIMO is a reasonable expectation and I agree, esp in ern areas. I still feel good with the euro seasonal showing a nice JFM pattern. The only reason why I brought this up was to say that if the area (esp inland) is somehow snowless into NY, then a true blockbuster may be off the table. A blockbuster meaning the top echelon of winters.  I wasn't suggesting anything otherwise. I just want to get that out there.

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It was Will that said 120-150% OF CLIMO is a reasonable expectation and I agree, esp in ern areas. I still feel good with the euro seasonal showing a nice JFM pattern. The only reason why I brought this up was to say that if the area (esp inland) is somehow snowless into NY, then a true blockbuster may be off the table. A blockbuster meaning the top echelon of winters.  I wasn't suggesting anything otherwise. I just want to get that out there.

The data suggests that even a climo winter is probably off the table.

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The data suggests that even a climo winter is probably off the table.

 

By snowless, I mean from this point on. Personally, I doubt that. I think the odds of an interior mdt or greater snow event between now and NY is greater than 50%. By moderate I mean something like 4-6" or better.

 

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It was Will that said 120-150% OF CLIMO is a reasonable expectation and I agree, esp in ern areas. I still feel good with the euro seasonal showing a nice JFM pattern. The only reason why I brought this up was to say that if the area (esp inland) is somehow snowless into NY, then a true blockbuster may be off the table. A blockbuster meaning the top echelon of winters. I wasn't suggesting anything otherwise. I just want to get that out there.

I get what you are saying. Its really nearly impossible to predict when a true blockbuster will occur. This winter still looks great, but December has been a dud.

Everything really has to line in all areas to have a blockbuster. It just doesn't happen often. That doesn't mean it can't still be good or great.

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By snowless, I mean from this point on. Personally, I doubt that. I think the odds of an interior mdt or greater snow event between now and NY is greater than 50%. By moderate I mean something like 4-6" or better.

 

Ohhhh, okay. I thought you were thinking it's likely that there won't even be a mod. event before then. Maybe we can squeeze something out in the last week, hopefully.

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Ohhhh, okay. I thought you were thinking it's likely that there won't even be a mod. event before then. Maybe we can squeeze something out in the last week, hopefully.

 

No..lol. Sorry if I wasn't clear. I think we'll have a shot before NY. I hope. Also, Christmas could still be an interior deal too.

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150% would be like 65" at BOS. To me, that isn't a blockbuster. Don't forget the coast many times has little through mid to late Jan. I had less than 10" through 2/1/13 and then had over 70 for the year.  Blockbuster for BOS is above 75" IMHO. So for me, it means nothing if the coast struggles in Dec.

65" is a figure that's been accomplished in 19 of the 124 seasons on record at BOS(By my quick skim of the totals column, might have missed a year or two but that's about right), so right around 15%, yeah maybe a bit too high of a percentage for blockbuster(Didn't go back through and count, but I'd guess going to 70" would knock about half of those out), but certainly a top tier winter IMO.

 

Now, when you get inland, and climo is right around 70", 150%(105" at ORH), is a blockbuster, only two winters have ever passed the 105" mark there(1992-93 and 2004-2005), two more are between 100" and 105". Goes back to a discussion earlier in the season about how interior is generally going to be closer to climo on the whole on both extremes, while the coastline can be really really bad and also really really good relative to climo.

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970mb over Detroit...lol. A grinch Christmas...just like the ones I used to know.

The 22nd is sort of the turd in the punch bowl. We get a later, weaker low with a modified airmass and rain. Then we follow it up with that torched bomb. I'd rather just get that 22nd garbage out of there and get some CAA and a good high in place like at 12z. This'll change a dozen more times so whatever to this solution. It made me chuckle though.

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970mb over Detroit...lol. A grinch Christmas...just like the ones I used to know.

The 22nd is sort of the turd in the punch bowl. We get a later, weaker low with a modified airmass and rain. Then we follow it up with that torched bomb. I'd rather just get that 22nd garbage out of there and get some CAA and a good high in place like at 12z. This'll change a dozen more times so whatever to this solution. It made me chuckle though.

 

Yeah, the EC and GFS really make you want to blow chunks if you're looking for any snow.

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The thing with the 25th storm is does it phase with southern stream..If not..it's just a mix to cold rain and no cutter..which in this pattern of non amplified systems is probably the way to go

Disagree....because the signal for a strong storm has been on more than just one model, and for 2-3 days and multiple runs.  Signal for a strong storm, related to change in the Pacific flow.

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Disagree....because the signal for a strong storm has been on more than just one model, and for 2-3 days and multiple runs.  Signal for a strong storm, related to change in the Pacific flow.

The chances of it being strong and cutting over DET are very low. The pattern right now is not one for big , wound up storms.

 

This is also why when you piss away the month of December that you can't have an epic winter. You lose a full month and are only left with 2 possible good ones.

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