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December 20 - 21 Coastal Storm Threat

jm1220

By jm1220,
in New York City Metro

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

Odds are with that low center over the lakes the mod levels would torch, it's going to be a b**ch to get snow in the setup around Christmas as of now based on most models

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Monmouth_County_Jacpot

Monmouth_County_Jacpot

Posted
Posted

Odds are with that low center over the lakes the mod levels would torch, it's going to be a b**ch to get snow in the setup around Christmas as of now based on most models

to be honest every storm since thanksgiving has been warm for the coast I truly believe our winter pattern has set up since thanksgiving regardless whether we like it or not jmo
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wolfsheepsheadbay

wolfsheepsheadbay

Posted
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to be honest every storm since thanksgiving has been warm for the coast I truly believe our winter pattern has set up since thanksgiving regardless whether we like it or not jmo

This may be because you don't understand or haven't been paying attention to what knowledgable posters are saying around you. The pattern after Christmas is going to be about as explosive and conducive for KU events as it can be, with a +PNA, -EPO, -AO and -NAO. And if the stratosphere cooperates, it could last for a long while.
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Monmouth_County_Jacpot

Monmouth_County_Jacpot

Posted
Posted

This may be because you don't understand or haven't been paying attention to what knowledgable posters are saying around you. The pattern after Christmas is going to be about as explosive and conducive for KU events as it can be, with a +PNA, -EPO, -AO and -NAO. And if the stratosphere cooperates, it could last for a long while.

hey I hope believe me I do and about understanding patterns I am not to informed which is why I would like to learn more
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WeatherFox

WeatherFox

Posted
Posted

Yes, that is a strong storm but as modeled it is too close to the coast.   When I read the NWS forecast discussions - storms passing  inside the 40/70 benchmark will be rainstorms for NYC & Long Island.  Of course we are still several days out, so lets keep an eye on it.

 

 

:snowwindow:

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

Odds are with that low center over the lakes the mod levels would torch, it's going to be a b**ch to get snow in the setup around Christmas as of now based on most models

Odds are also that the actual map On Dec 24th will look nothing like that in fact I am going to save it and we will revisit that 18Z gfs at that time

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

I think a monster storm is going to happen, the pattern really screams that, and it's almost certainly going to be over or west of NYC

If some of ideas of Jan and Feb work out. Guys are gona be busy in here deleting there stuff come mid winter.

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

I think a monster storm is going to happen, the pattern really screams that, and it's almost certainly going to be over or west of NYC

thats a bold prediction 8 days out that exactly at that time LP will be in that location - we will see - I say no

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Eduardo

Eduardo

Posted
Posted

to be honest every storm since thanksgiving has been warm for the coast I truly believe our winter pattern has set up since thanksgiving regardless whether we like it or not jmo

 

 

hey I hope believe me I do and about understanding patterns I am not to informed which is why I would like to learn more

 

Please do not take this as me singling you out.  The last thing I would want to do is alienate somebody like you who is truly here to learn this stuff, and I wholeheartedly share your passion for it.  But this juxtaposition of your last two posts more or less captures the reason why this forum has degenerated into the nonsense-ridden hack fest we see now. 

 

Everybody is here to educate themselves, at least to some extent.  There is absolutely no shame in not being informed; none at all, in fact!  But when we are not informed on a subject, it makes little sense to offer an opinion on it and, what's worse, it actually undercuts the educational objective towards which we are all striving here.

 

The moment when people learn to withhold their views regarding subjects in which they're unversed is the moment we can begin to clean this place up and recruit some more red-taggers.  For the sake of us all, can we do that?

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Radders

Radders

Posted
Posted

Please do not take this as me singling you out.  The last thing I would want to do is alienate somebody like you who is truly here to learn this stuff, and I wholeheartedly share your passion for it.  But this juxtaposition of your last two posts more or less captures the reason why this forum has degenerated into the nonsense-ridden hack fest we see now. 

 

Everybody is here to educate themselves, at least to some extent.  There is absolutely no shame in not being informed; none at all, in fact!  But when we are not informed on a subject, it makes little sense to offer an opinion on it and, what's worse, it actually undercuts the educational objective towards which we are all striving here.

 

The moment when people learn to withhold their views regarding subjects in which they're unversed is the moment we can begin to clean this place up and recruit some more red-taggers.  For the sake of us all, can we do that?

 

+1000

I totally agree with this post... Too many people posting opinions without a solid understanding is the primary problem with this forum.  Think before you post and if in doubt, just don't post..You will learn plenty by just reading/observing, it's not a post-count competition.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

The 00Z NAM sucks...but I'll give some news..as someone just said in another forum "grasping at straws good news"  The top 3 CIPS analogs at 120 hours on today's 12Z GFS in the eastern sector of the US all produced some sort of East Coast storm....1/8/88, 1/14/82, 11/22/85...these don't always mean anything but 2 of those 3 when I looked closer were sort of flat out west on the ridging.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted

The 00Z NAM sucks...but I'll give some news..as someone just said in another forum "grasping at straws good news"  The top 3 CIPS analogs at 120 hours on today's 12Z GFS in the eastern sector of the US all produced some sort of East Coast storm....1/8/88, 1/14/82, 11/22/85...these don't always mean anything but 2 of those 3 when I looked closer were sort of flat out west on the ridging.

is the Nam even in range for Sunday's "event"?

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

is the Nam even in range for Sunday's "event"?

 

Its not, but its fairly flat...the NAM rule of wanting to see it be somewhat overamplified or west/north vs. other models at 84 hours when you get inside 5-6 days on an event often works...its not overly more amplified than any of the globals right now which leads me to believe at the very least the GFS is not making any big move at 00Z.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

Body blow ! However I do have the entire week my man.

Here's to hoping this all a major sampling error in some very sparse regions .

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

Insane. This went from a possible big storm to nothing. 0z GFS doesn't even have a storm.

Funny I've seen setups in the past that the gfs shows turn from nothing into something rapidly and vice-versa. The pattern, however, doesn't support that in this case but who knows. If there was an actual storm even weak we might have gotten an inch or two from it. 

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

Insane. This went from a possible big storm to nothing. 0z GFS doesn't even have a storm.

I find that entire 0Z GFS solution odd especially since we have had some strong nor'easters already this season and this one just basically remains disorganized when it makes the turn to come up the coast ???That Pacific Jet is the key to this and is the model handling it correctly - also the + PNA pattern seems to be breaking down in the next few days BUT the NAO and the AO are forecasted to decrease towards neutral in the coming days

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2014121700&fh=102&xpos=0&ypos=970

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

The issue is not the east coast . It's whats crashes onto the west coast at 84 hours that kills this . It knocks the ridge down and you deamplify the pattern downstream.

So the EC SW is weaker and you wind up with weak LP

Zero dynamics and at this point something very pedestrian.

The only hope is those 2 monster systems In the PAC are being modeled too fast. That's the only way this comes back.

That's why I said there is sampling in sparse areas. ( out over the pac)

But all the models would be having to make this mistake . I guess it's possible .

It has happened before but you can't make a forecast on hope.

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Doorman

Doorman

Posted
Posted

I find that entire 0Z GFS solution odd especially since we have had some strong nor'easters already this season and this one just basically remains disorganized when it makes the turn to come up the coast ???

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2014121700&fh=102&xpos=0&ypos=970

NAO

 

look at the top floor again

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121700/gfs_uv250_eus_16.png

 

 

to hot on top to pop

 

nam look second opinion  :nerdsmiley:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2014121700/nam_uv250_eus_29.png

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Blizz

Blizz

Posted
Posted

If the no storm or very weak storm scenario verifies the GFS scores a coup, no?

 

More like a blind squirrel finding a nut imo... OTS solutions DO happen, the GFS' progessive bias will end up making it seem like it had a clue with this system... One things for sure, Euro certainly didn't score coup. Just my thoughts.  :thumbsdown:

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