LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Honestly, we will not have a clear idea of what this storm is going to do until at least Wednesday, when the wave reaches the west coast. Models will begin to sample it better by then. Best to just look at the overall pattern and setup....you'll drive yourself crazy if you live and die by each op. model run....especially over the next 24-48 hours.Thank you!!!!!!!! wtf with the rest of this thread writing off a storm 5 days out!What some people don't get is models are not the end all be all. They can't predict winning lottery numbers either. Going by the trend I would be more worried about a coastal hugger an precip issues then super suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Looks like the euro mean ends up tracking just east of the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Shhhhhhhhhhhh calm down and go back to bed . The take away for me it`s 36 hours from OBX TO CC . This thing CRAWLS . Way better track than at 12z . Let the model resolve the strength as we get closer . We only get home through dynamics . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Most of you shouldn't be on here if you all live and die by each run. Try to understand the pattern otherwise you'll become just as bipolar as those Day 5+ runs. I can already imagine the utter chaos when there's a huge threat on the models. Remember your reaction when a couple of model runs showed what appeared to be the end of winter? Takeaway overnight is that suppression or shearing out are very real ways this can not work out, as I suggested yesterday. Need to watch the pac nw energy to see what it does to the ridge downstream. Really don't see warmth being an issue with this but I may be wrong. Several ECM and GGEM Ens members show coastal hugger solutions. Dare I say though that the overnight trend is quite common of eventual major snow events in the mid range. Would much rather be on the NW side of guidance than the SE side of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Definitely not a fan of the overnight trend with the pac nw, but there is another piece of energy showing up on some models a bit later that may help pump the PAC ridge juuust enough for us. A wild card to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 para 6z looks better stronger and further north than 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 para 6z looks better stronger and further north than 00z yes but precip type in question in the metro as the HP is in the wrong position - I think we all need to sit back and relax and see how this thing plays out the next few days as we have been down this road before regarding the models............. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2014121606&fh=132&xpos=0&ypos=307 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Don't even engage the guy. He has no idea what he is talking about. Writing off this storm and then giving the gfs as vindication, just plain stupid. i can show you 17 runs of the GFS from NOV 19-23 where ot had NO east coast low for NOV 26 I can show you 16 runs of the GFS days before the dec 9 event where it had NO Low of any kind . Nothing Given these facts for you to argue that the last few of the GFS have no event therefore "thats the ball game " is Just beyond dumb. It tells me .. and many others.. you have clue what the hell you are talking about. really ? what is your response to your friend Joe Cioffi about his GFS comments ? https://www.facebook.com/meteorologistjoecioffi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Nam looks like Dec 25 - 26 2010... with the north jet saving the day... of a weakening southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f132.gif http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2014121612/nam_z500_vort_namer_29.png phasing all the way into the arctic circle...note the vorticity connection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Nam looks like Dec 25 - 26 2010... No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 No gfs at same hour looks worlds apart...either the nam is gona score a coup or it's off it's game again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 gfs at same hour looks worlds apart...either the nam is gona score a coup or it's off it's game again The NAM or any model are nowhere near showing anything similar to Dec 2010..it isn't even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 really ? what is your response to your friend Joe Cioffi about his GFS comments ? https://www.facebook.com/meteorologistjoecioffi I don't agree with the argument that the models have been trending away from a significant coastal storm. This doesn't mean that future runs won't head in that direction, but we'll see what happens.The ECMWF had one possible "hiccup" in its 12z run. Below are the last four runs of the GFS and last two runs of the ECMWF for select cities: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 DOES IT factor in today's rain at all? I don't agree with the argument that the models have been trending away from a significant coastal storm. This doesn't mean that future runs won't head in that direction, but we'll see what happens.The ECMWF had one possible "hiccup" in its 12z run. Below are the last four runs of the GFS and last two runs of the ECMWF for select cities: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 DOES IT factor in today's rain at all? No. I did not include the figures for today's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The 12z GFS is more amplified at 72 hours than 06z and the ridge out West looks slightly better. Our 50/50 low is also moving out a bit faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 1016mb over the MS Gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 the GFS looks worse IL. The PAC jet is roaring into Canada and crushing the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 We need to hope that the data is in a poor sampling area and that with better sampling in a day or so, the threat comes back. Wouldn't be the first time when tracking a winter event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The 50/50 low is quite a bit northeast this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 HE IS WRONG and he did NOT see the 0z euro ensemble really ? what is your response to your friend Joe Cioffi about his GFS comments ? https://www.facebook.com/meteorologistjoecioffi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 the GFS looks worse IL. The PAC jet is roaring into Canada and crushing the ridge. It was there on 06z too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 NEG NAO et al.. guys if you think this is a MISS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 H5 is a complete mess....vastly diff then yesterday...gross Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 It was there on 06z too. Yes, but it is stronger this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The trough is now flatter as we get into Saturday. It's a big mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I'm glad DT is here to correctly analyze the models. There is too much negativity in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The trough is now flatter as we get into Saturday. It's a big mess. Correct. The writing was on the wall earlier on in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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