Allsnow Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 with no blocking that is a huge rain maker for xmass…and a ohio valley blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 h5 closes off over the mid-west…its a 986 over west virgina…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 GFS and Euro are night and day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Since when does a cutter end up near the benchmark? For the folks in Bermuda its a cutter when it goes over the benchmark - where is DT ? he will straighten this all out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 For the folks in Bermuda its a cutter when it goes over the benchmark - where is DT ? he will straighten this all out It goes up to just south of buffalo then redevelops just east of sne...before that 986 just south of Pitt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 you actually made me lol glad to hear - but seriously lets wait and see what the Euro ensembles look like before we draw any conclusions about this weekends event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 For the folks in Bermuda its a cutter when it goes over the benchmark - where is DT ? he will straighten this all out ok since DT is ignoring us today here are his thoughts hot off the presses: "Earlier in the week when this system will more significant the weather models were not detecting this energy coming in from the Pacific Ocean into the West Coast. It is QUITE possible that the models are OVER DOING this Pacific jet stream energy and IF that is the case we would be looking at a bigger event. Indeed that IS what the Midday Canadian ensembles and early Tuesday AM European ensembles are depicting. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 ok since DT is ignoring us today here are his thoughts hot off the presses: "Earlier in the week when this system will more significant the weather models were not detecting this energy coming in from the Pacific Ocean into the West Coast. It is QUITE possible that the models are OVER DOING this Pacific jet stream energy and IF that is the case we would be looking at a bigger event. Indeed that IS what the Midday Canadian ensembles and early Tuesday AM European ensembles are depicting. " Posted this away as the fists were flying in here . ALL the models will need a little time to resolve the speed of the Pac SWs that are currently in very sparse regions. I am always leery at the mid range solutions . The PAC makes the forecast here . Patience . IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The Euro track of the Christmas event is not possible, lows do not track right up the Apps, it's meaningless anyway since that event is going to be over us or west of the Apps, it just won't take that type of track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The Euro track of the Christmas event is not possible, lows do not track right up the Apps, it's meaningless anyway since that event is going to be over us or west of the Apps, it just won't take that type of track I couldn't agree more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I couldn't agree more. There are only 2 events I know of that did take a track of that sort I believe the 1950 storm and March 08 did but it takes a very particular pattern, the problem too is that the first event will likely impact the track of the 2nd event and that event is still very much in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 If I didn't know better I'd think some believe Xmas is the 20/21. Are we done talking about what this thread was originally about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 WPC has cut back precip totals even more making this a basic non event http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1418758738 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 ok since DT is ignoring us today here are his thoughts hot off the presses: "Earlier in the week when this system will more significant the weather models were not detecting this energy coming in from the Pacific Ocean into the West Coast. It is QUITE possible that the models are OVER DOING this Pacific jet stream energy and IF that is the case we would be looking at a bigger event. Indeed that IS what the Midday Canadian ensembles and early Tuesday AM European ensembles are depicting. " That's only part of the write up! He goes on to say that there is to much energy diving into the Pac nw. A minor event looks more likely now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 That's only part of the write up! He goes on to say that there is to much energy diving into the Pac nw. A minor event looks more likely now. and what is going to be said if the euro ensembles show otherwise ? And or the 0Z runs show otherwise ? I wouldn't give up on this event yet - we have gone down this road with the models before 4 - 5 days out............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 12z ECM Ens are also starting to trend weaker with this system. Mean has a 1016mb closed isobar centered south of the benchmark at 132 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Euro ensembles ain't giving up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Euro ensembles ain't giving up Yeah they are. The 500mb level looks terrible now. Even worse then the operational. Flat ridge and weak energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Euro ensembles ain't giving up can you explain ???? you just had ag3 say they are giving up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I have to see individual members, the QPF looks like there are still going to be amped solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 12Z EURO ENSEMBLE shows 0.50 to 0.75" from NC TN line wva/ va border to Martinsburrg WVA to Allentown to just south of Albany NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I have to see individual members, the QPF looks like there are still going to be amped solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Yeah they are. The 500mb level looks terrible now. Even worse then the operational. Flat ridge and weak energy. Much weaker signal than what we had yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I have to see individual members, the QPF looks like there are still going to be amped solutions Weak members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 12z ECM Ens are also starting to trend weaker with this system. Mean has a 1016mb closed isobar centered south of the benchmark at 132 hours. 1016 is not going to cut it. If we had fresh arctic air around sure. We really need the bomb the Euro showed a few runs ago. Looks like a couple inches in the higher elevations and well inland. Coast is looking like toast. This is really starting to resemble 07/08 with NNE scoring big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Was someone looking at the wrong qpf ? Normally you guys would be jumping for joy with .5-.75 liquid equivalent. Could that be yesterdays run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Seriously keep in mind that within just a few days, if that, the thinking went from no huge storm, to amped up solution possibly inside the benchmark maybe an interior event, to a weak low that is pretty much nothing significant. We are STILL 4-5 days from the event, whatever it might be. I'm not saying I think it will be anything big.....that's not for me to say and my speculation is merely just that. With any storm, many things have to work out, and with this one the setup is less than ideal, but still one where a storm is possible. Point being...given the information that we have, it's at least 24-36 hours too early to start writing it off, and also too early to start honking for a good chance of a big one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Yes the Ensembles are stronger than the Op BUT its clear there is a trend towards a flatter solution. The dynamic storm with heavy QPF and accordant cooling has been gone for 3 runs now. We have till 12 Z tomrw & if this continues its on to the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Was someone looking at the wrong qpf ? Normally you guys would be jumping for joy with .5-.75 liquid equivalent. Could that be yesterdays run? No, there are a few very amped members I think, I haven't seen it yet but I was told by a reliable source there were a few in there but they aren't a majority Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The Pacific is even worse on the 18z GFS. This threat is on life support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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