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December 20 - 21 Coastal Storm Threat


jm1220

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interesting week maybe in reality, but for me, I am writing this bad boy off. I am not going to lose sleep waiting for the euro when I fear I know what it will show. A good pattern will set up eventually though, or will it?

I haven't posted here in a while but I need to point out the sheet stupidity of this statement. It is Monday... The euro and it's ensembles show a significant storm on the eastern seaboard. To write off this storm now is just plain crazy. We don't know how the storm will evolve, so much to sort out. Lol writing it off can't even comprehend someone with any semblance of meteorogical sense doing that.
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interesting week maybe in reality, but for me, I am writing this bad boy off. I am not going to lose sleep waiting for the euro when I fear I know what it will show. A good pattern will set up eventually though, or will it?

u seem to do this with every storm...one bad trend and u throw in the towel ur posts are unredable and annoying smh

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I haven't posted here in a while but I need to point out the sheet stupidity of this statement. It is Monday... The euro and it's ensembles show a significant storm on the eastern seaboard. To write off this storm now is just plain crazy. We don't know how the storm will evolve, so much to sort out. Lol writing it off can't even comprehend someone with any semblance of meteorogical sense doing that.

Ok, come back after the Euro and talk to me. That is all I ask of you.

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u seem to do this with every storm...one bad trend and u throw in the towel ur posts are unredable and annoying smh

Actually I thought the Thanksgiving day storm was going to be a good storm for PHI-Bos. I was wrong, I never threw in the towel for that storm, most models at least had the storm 4-6 days out. This time around, not.

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Done ranting but it shouldn't shock anyone why almost all the good posters have left here. People writing off a storm as a slider after one set of model runs when those same people 24 hours ago were calling for in inland runner or cutter

One set of model runs? The GFS has been consistent for the past 2-3 days or so. 

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Did you look at the euro ensembles which are by very far the best to use in this time period? Did you see the cluster for the love of god man it's true there may be no storm but writing it off now come on man

Exactly. This guy thinks he knows everything when he obviously has no meteorological sense.
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Actually I thought the Thanksgiving day storm was going to be a good storm for PHI-Bos. I was wrong, I never threw in the towel for that storm, most models at least had the storm 4-6 days out. This time around, not.

really? because i distinctly remember u giving up on that one two one night after the gfs came out then the euro had a snowstorm a few hours later...just stop posting please 

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Every needs to stop saying this is 6 days out. This will be forming down south on the 19th and coming up near the 20-21st. Only really 3-4 days before we will tell if this will actually happen or not.

 

The ridge out west has been looking worse and worse each model run. Even the EURO, it might show a big storm, but the overall upper air pattern doesn't really even support it. But who knows.

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Hmm think we should listen more to red taggers and green taggers as well as other trusted posters other than those who put a snow map up 5 days before a storm. Did u even see the spread on the 12 euro ensembles jeez this thread is horrible

 

 

 

yeah maybe you should. But we are all allowed to post including the snow map that I posted 5 days before the last storm hit. Yes it was revised from 3-6 to a coating-1 inch on day one. Regardless redtaggers or mets we can all learn together. You mean to tell me that redtaggers can't learn a thing or two? Of course maybe not from me or you but there's always someone out there that will do a good job at a specific situation. We are all unique. As far as this upcoming storm is concerned, I think this is our storm if the EURO 0z run gives us a stronger and more northwest track, this will be our storm. Cause most models have it south of EURO, therefore it's safe to say that it won't be an inland runner. Could it hug the coast? Possibly. I truly believe the Euro will get this Miller A right. I mean at the end of the day, we've got to wake up. Realize that the EURO is like 3 for 3 this season. Maybe even more but 3 for 3 is 100% so I'd go with the EURO on this and see where it takes me. Whatever the EURO tells us tonight, I'm going to think the EURO solution will end up being right. Forecast modeling has come a long way, that's a big reason why the EURO weather model is rated the best. If it shows a strung out low going out to sea, than I must say that ill give up on this storm. Many chances its pretty much winter here for another 3 months coming your weenie way. :P

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  wow  what a   moron

 

interesting week maybe in reality, but for me, I am writing this bad boy off. I am not going to lose sleep waiting for the euro when I fear I know what it will show. A good pattern will set up eventually though, or will it?

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 BINGO 

 

 

but why would it be a mess? should it be showing something else? In my opiniong a mess is when it doesn't make sense or doesn't reflect an accurate weather data. I'm just trying to understand if the model is messed up and shouldn't be taken into account.

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The NOGAPS shows more of a hit than the GFS to an extent...that can be viewed 2 ways at this time frame...sometimes it can mean the GFS is clueless...other times as a few other Mets have noticed, when beyond 84 hours if thr NOGAPS is similar to other globals it often means the other globals are nowhere close to a final solution yet and are going to make a big move in some direction...I've found this works very often...a few years back the NOGAPS agreed dead on with all guidance of a big storm at 144 hours...by 108 hours the storm was gone on all models and never occurred.

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