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Winter 2014-15 Banter Thread

Stormlover74

By Stormlover74,
in New York City Metro

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted

Yes ...spot on spot on  JC

 

muddy the waters all you want

it was an observation not a forecast.........for crying outside

 

dm was wrong

dm was wrong on temps so far

weenies rejoice   LOL

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std1_ussm_animation.html

 

Arrogant + wrong = awesome posting style.

 

What did today's 12z Euro say for day 8?

 

Maybe you could call people weenies some more.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted

post it for us please

 

Since the ECMWF model that I have access to doesn't actually come out at the same time the model output starts at, I was hoping you could share the ECMWF model that you and WPC have access to.

 

So what are the 850 temperature anomalies, red or blue?

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Doorman

Doorman

Posted
Posted

Big Edge for us huh???  LOL

a three hour window with model data

for a 3-day surface map forecast  :bag:

 

SCIENCE

 

check the time stamp

and see the blend with your EURO run

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=7&fcolor=wbg

 

 

I have been at this to long to post a BS story for you all

 

 

on that note

Let

Mr Hollis give you some insight 

 

http://tropicalatlantic.com/

 

 

Hi. I'm not sure. My site checks for a very specific type of model data. My site checks every half hour for simply the model lines being posted on the NHC's server. I constantly check every half hour for new data because I don't know when new data is available. I don't get notified when new data is available to download, I have to keep checking.

The full GFS data is posted raw on NOAA's server. When a particular forecast hour is done the server can then immediately create an image on the NCEP site for that hour. (http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/) I know their site has data that comes in frame by frame and I would assume that the image is available pretty much as soon as the data becomes available to create it. Other sites that have GFS imagery would have to download and process the raw data into their own kind of images, taking a bit longer. The hard part would likely be knowing when data is available. NCEP does everything for their site. It processes the raw GFS data calculations to create the raw data on the FTP site which other sites can use. But then the server could, and I assume does, create the image for display on their site immediately. It doesn't have to check for new data occasionally because it knows when new data is available as at the end of the task it can simply create the image. Rather than knowing when it is available, other sites like have to check to see if it is available. But that might not be true of all sites. Recon data for example comes across through the NOAAPORT system. You can actually have a satellite receiver pick up that data, along with massive amounts of other weather data. I don't do that because I don't have a satellite or would know how to do it. I constantly check to see if model and recon data is available through NOAA's FTP server. Big companies can simply get it by satellite. Perhaps GFS data, or at least a notification that GFS data is available, is also put out that way, making people get the raw data in real time that can then be processed into images to be displayed on other sites.

ECMWF data I really don't know about. I haven't timed it. Some of the government sites that do have it have it internally. I don't know how soon they get it. You might find out more here:

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/software-and-tools

The ECMWF does make some data available for free, but I don't know if they have a built in delay for it. I would certainly assume that the U.S. government gets it faster than the public or even private companies. And of course, they get the full data. Whether the U.S. gets it faster than the imagery that appears on ECMWF's own site, I don't know.

I have never got too much into looking at the ECMWF raw data, or even the GFS raw data, because my site doesn't have the bandwidth to download it or display it, I don't have the resources to process it and I would have to learn how to process it. That would mean building software so I never have researched the raw data too much. Until the last few years I didn't even know you could get some of the ECMWF raw data. I assume that is where some of the university sites that display some of the data get it. I would not think they pay for it and then display it publicly. I don't think the ECMWF would allow that. But I don't know how delayed those university sites get it either.

I don't know how fast, or even what form, the NHC gets the ECMWF data. I did just remember that this site does have some ECMWF data:

http://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

I couldn't even think of any government sites that might have that data publicly. But I don't know how delayed it is, if at all.

I know that my site does not carry the ECMWF in real time because it is not released in the NHC's model suite in real time. (NHC gets it, they just don't make it public.) After a storm ends, maybe even post season, ECMWF data is sometimes added however to those model files. I wish since it does appear on that above site as a line that it was available in the NHC's public model files. I wish I could have real time model error calculated for it. Oh well.
 

again.... a three hour window for a 3-day surface map 

maybe my bad ...

 

dm

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BxEngine

BxEngine

Posted
Posted

WPC gets the NCEP models about when everyone else does. As far as the Euro, not sure exactly of the timing but I suspect that paying customers get it a bit before WPC, as NCEP gets a push of the Euro from the EC, then it is processed in-house, then they see it in their system.

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Doorman

Doorman

Posted
Posted

Either post something legitimate, or drop it altogether. Banter or not, blatantly incorrect info, or info without proof or substance, has no place here.

BX

cool out

 

I took the posts down

and apologized to the crew

 

some of us --Transfer Students (from other forums)

had the pleasure of insight from a former Chief Met

for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

 

his name is Mark

and he lives outside of DC (others here can vouch for this)

 

I am waiting for a reply from him

to clarify any or all of my arguments

about the early access

 

I believe it was his bit of

trade secret  input

for us weenies and students

 

I will drop this for now ....and move on

 

dm

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wolfsheepsheadbay

wolfsheepsheadbay

Posted
Posted

dm

1). You don't get the Euro early.

2). You forecast along with CPC 99.8% of the time and only post model images that support your/their forecast. Not impressed.

3). Your posting style isn't unique. It's annoying, smarmy and comes across as elitist. Most here don't even understand 95% of what comes from your keyboard. I have my doubts whether you understand it.

3). Your warm forecasts have hit a brick wall this month because you did not take the impact of downswelling stratospheric warming into account. You will bust for January.

4). Your forecasts have been all about warmth and not about snow at all.

5). It is plainly obvious that you are trolling here this winter, regardless of what you were doing last winter.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted

I can't tell if you're on his side or not, lol. Earlier, thought you were defending him. Now, seems like the opposite. 

 

I find his condescending tone lately to be annoying, considering that he thinks that temperature anomaly maps show temperatures, 216 hour ensemble mean mslp values should be taken verbatim and that 0z model runs come out at 0z, but has the audacity to lecture others on "science" and "trade secrets."

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Doorman

Doorman

Posted
Posted

I find his condescending tone lately to be annoying, considering that he thinks that temperature anomaly maps show temperatures, 216 hour ensemble mean mslp values should be taken verbatim and that 0z model runs come out at 0z, but has the audacity to lecture others on "science" and "trade secrets."

Im here to take the heat off Forky!!!!!!   :lol:

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

I realize this sounds dumb... but how does one go about posting images on here? I could do it last year and in previous years, but it confounds me now.

 

Thanks in advance.

You have to first save them to a file and then upload them if it's giving you that image extension error. It really depends on the image.

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mranger48

mranger48

Posted
Posted

Anyone see the day 9 euro? .....I know..day 9, hence why I posted it on banter.

Which system are we hoping becomes a 50/50....the sun night storm or the clipper? I was under the impression the sun night low helps bring down the NAO, while the clipper hopefully climbs into the 50/50 position. Then we roll the dice with the track of our southern low? That other forum seems pretty giddy about it all but it's 9 days out :/ (although it is Tombo)

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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