tim Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 ..forecasted high for green bay on sunday jan 11th is 13* under mostly sunny skies..kickoff is @ 4:35pm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Stop being negative Nancy's the pattern looks awesome for cold and snow so enjoy it. Enough of this bad pattern hogwash and embrace a new beginning. You are correct - looking at these MJO plots we wil be going into phase 7 and 8 by the 18th which are the cold snowy phases. What is interesting is we are in phase 5 now with an arctic outbreak comparable to last years on our doorstep BUT without the snowstorms .The snowy cold pattern should begin when we get into 7 and 8 and last for several weeks at least. http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/realtime-mjo/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 GFS has some more light snow on Friday from a clipper to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 GFS has some more light snow on Friday from a clipper to the north How shocked are you going to be tomorrow if you don't get at least a coating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 All I can say is we better see something significant soon because I dont think I can take arguing over an inch vs a coating a month from now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 All I can say is we better see something significant soon because I dont think I can take arguing over an inch vs a coating a month from now And then after that bedroom fight is over you come here for more arguing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 And then after that bedroom fight is over you come here for more arguing... at least its arguing over something else...like a foot vs 2 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 It would be nice to get some reliable modeling, never mind storm threats. We always get plenty of false alarms but this year that's been more than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Id rather have an overrunning event (cutter ) like Saturday lol. At least I saw 4 hrs of snow and 2 inches worth . The way the clipper is going we will be lucky to see some flurries lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 It would be nice to get some reliable modeling, never mind storm threats. We always get plenty of false alarms but this year that's been more than usual. Really? I know the models have been all of the place with regards to the pattern shift but I don't think theres been too many storm threats that showed up for several runs in a row on any one model. The GFS has been showing something around MLK day but with severe cold just before that may keep storms suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 It would be nice to get some reliable modeling, never mind storm threats. We always get plenty of false alarms but this year that's been more than usual. the GFS model has performed outstanding this year. Rather impressive imop. What false alarms are you speaking about? Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The most recent examples I can think of are the cutter for tommorrow that origionally was giving warning criteria snows to New England, this weekends system which ended up much drier than forecasted (It's funny how nobody seems to notice this time of year when models are showing 2" of rain and we get a half inch) and the Christmas cutter which was forecasted to be a very deep storm that would help flip the pattern and verified rather weak until it was well into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 lol. I guess this is what happens when many up-and-coming leaders in the field of meteorology are raised on the internet, educated largely on the internet, employed on the internet, and known solely through the internet... the value of real-life collaboration is completely lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The most recent examples I can think of are the cutter for tommorrow that origionally was giving warning criteria snows to New England, this weekends system which ended up much drier than forecasted (It's funny how nobody seems to notice this time of year when models are showing 2" of rain and we get a half inch) and the Christmas cutter which was forecasted to be a very deep storm that would help flip the pattern and verified rather weak until it was well into Canada. Nothing has been that great this season QPF wise outside of the 12/9 storm which dumped 3 inches in spots...everything busts drier than expected....sheared out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 lol. wrong forum... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 The most recent examples I can think of are the cutter for tommorrow that origionally was giving warning criteria snows to New England, this weekends system which ended up much drier than forecasted (It's funny how nobody seems to notice this time of year when models are showing 2" of rain and we get a half inch) and the Christmas cutter which was forecasted to be a very deep storm that would help flip the pattern and verified rather weak until it was well into Canada. The GFS never had 2" of rain for this weekend. Mostly around an inch or less. EWR ended up with a little over 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 It would be nice to get some reliable modeling, never mind storm threats. We always get plenty of false alarms but this year that's been more than usual. How much would it kill the weather enthusiast if modeling were nearly perfect for a period of time? Lets say the global models could project out for two weeks with a high degree of accuracy...would knowing whats coming make this a less enjoyable hobby? I think probably so, especially in the unfavorable patterns where at least today one can always hold onto some hope. I know that's not what you were referencing in your post, but just throwing out the thought.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The GFS never had 2" of rain for this weekend. Mostly around an inch or less. EWR ended up with a little over 1" That's only one model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Another weenie GGEM run. Two possible events with a fantastic setup at day 10 which matches the idea of a threat mid-month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 How do I posts my snow total to date. Under my posts? Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Temp here is down to 30. We probably won't see freezing again this week. FYI, 1.07" storm total here this past weekend, including melted snow. There was only enough snow to briefly coat some of the colder surfaces (like mulch beds). But it was more than enough to argue about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Yikes, it's cold out. The water in my recycling container (from yesterday's rain) has already frozen. And I saw two random snowflakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 http://www.theonion.com/articles/dirty-slush-machine-provides-children-in-florida-t,37690/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 HEAVY RAIN for most This would be fun for the whole family right here 18zLOL.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 really? there is no mid month winter storm threat Another weenie GGEM run. Two possible events with a fantastic setup at day 10 which matches the idea of a threat mid-month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 really? Cold Euro run. Not a warmup in sight after tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Dt coming in and giving a reality check. Pattern may be colder but certainly not snowier def no sign of a large storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 your optimism is without any basis in ...The 0z /12z Operational EURO.... the euro ens... the OP-GFS...the GFS ensembles .. HIGH RES GFS all show AO is 100% positive to JAN 22 as is the NAO and the EPO which is nwo currently negative goes to neutral by JAN 18-20 Bluewave is a good poster but he loves the Euro way too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Yeah I can certainly a reason to be hopeful about a big snow pattern mid Jan ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Eh, DT is hogging the euro it's been darn awful in LR. I would wait a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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