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Winter 2014-15 Banter Thread


Stormlover74

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Stop being negative Nancy's the pattern looks awesome for cold and snow so enjoy it. Enough of this bad pattern hogwash and embrace a new beginning.

You are correct - looking at these MJO plots we wil be going into phase 7 and 8 by the 18th which are the cold snowy phases. What is interesting is  we are in phase 5 now with an arctic outbreak comparable to last years on our doorstep BUT without the snowstorms .The snowy cold pattern should begin when we get into 7 and 8 and last for several weeks at least.

 

http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/realtime-mjo/

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It would be nice to get some reliable modeling, never mind storm threats. We always get plenty of false alarms but this year that's been more than usual.

Really? I know the models have been all of the place with regards to the pattern shift but I don't think theres been too many storm threats that showed up for several runs in a row on any one model. The GFS has been showing something around MLK day but with severe cold just before that may keep storms suppressed.

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The most recent examples I can think of are the cutter for tommorrow that origionally was giving warning criteria snows to New England, this weekends system which ended up much drier than forecasted (It's funny how nobody seems to notice this time of year when models are showing 2" of rain and we get a half inch) and the Christmas cutter which was forecasted to be a very deep storm that would help flip the pattern and verified rather weak until it was well into Canada.

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The most recent examples I can think of are the cutter for tommorrow that origionally was giving warning criteria snows to New England, this weekends system which ended up much drier than forecasted (It's funny how nobody seems to notice this time of year when models are showing 2" of rain and we get a half inch) and the Christmas cutter which was forecasted to be a very deep storm that would help flip the pattern and verified rather weak until it was well into Canada.

Nothing has been that great this season QPF wise outside of the 12/9 storm which dumped 3 inches in spots...everything busts drier than expected....sheared out?

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The most recent examples I can think of are the cutter for tommorrow that origionally was giving warning criteria snows to New England, this weekends system which ended up much drier than forecasted (It's funny how nobody seems to notice this time of year when models are showing 2" of rain and we get a half inch) and the Christmas cutter which was forecasted to be a very deep storm that would help flip the pattern and verified rather weak until it was well into Canada.

The GFS never had 2" of rain for this weekend. Mostly around an inch or less. EWR ended up with a little over 1"

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It would be nice to get some reliable modeling, never mind storm threats. We always get plenty of false alarms but this year that's been more than usual.

How much would it kill the weather enthusiast if modeling were nearly perfect for a period of time?  Lets say the global models could project out for two weeks with a high degree of accuracy...would knowing whats coming  make this a less enjoyable hobby?   I think probably so, especially in the unfavorable patterns where at least today one can always hold onto some hope. 

 

I know that's not what you were referencing in your post, but just throwing out the thought..

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  your optimism is    without any basis  in ...The 0z /12z Operational EURO.... the euro ens... the OP-GFS...
the GFS ensembles .. HIGH RES GFS all show AO is 100% positive to JAN 22 as is the NAO

and the  EPO  which is nwo currently  negative   goes to   neutral  by JAN 18-20 

 

 

Bluewave is a good poster but he loves the Euro way too much

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