ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I think that's Will's point. It wasn't necessarily a terrible pattern for the interior for the first three weeks of December, but it still produced nothing. Compared to actually terrible patterns for the interior which also produced nothing. Yeah kind of the difference between a horrific pattern and a merely subpar pattern. Often, the interior may squeak out a solid advisory event or something, but we failed to. Just a couple of coatings to an inch type snow shower deals...not even really true synoptic events. Either way, it looks quite a bit better after Christmas. No guarantees though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I don't get it. i didn't think it was a bad pattern for the interior Because you did luck out and snag a couple here and there this month, whereas Will and Ray haven't fared quite as well. Of course nobody fared well, but it's all relative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I don't get it. i didn't think it was a bad pattern for the interiorupdate please Here's what I have for each of you since you joined: Year...........Ray.....Kevin 2006-2007....34.5"...41.3" 2007-2008....73.0"...54.5" 2008-2009....82.5"...63.7" 2009-2010....54.5"...58. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Par the course, the signal looks good after santa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 update please Here's what I have for each of you since you joined: Year...........Ray.....Kevin 2006-2007....34.5"...41.3" 2007-2008....73.0"...54.5" 2008-2009....82.5"...63.7" 2009-2010....54.5"...58. I don't have all those years written down unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 3" or so for December for MBY is pretty hard to do when temps are close to normal...plus copius precip. Very interesting month, I am looking forward to Dec 25 on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Ya got a good laugh out of it looked like ryan wanted to laugh too You actually saw/heard this on t.v.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 it always seems the models can agree with each other when it's a cutter (xmas eve storm, for instance) but when its a snow bomb they can't agree on anything until the last minute. Hence as some weenies say, rainers always verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 3" or so for December for MBY is pretty hard to do when temps are close to normal...plus copius precip. Very interesting month, I am looking forward to Dec 25 on Its odd that New England has had these patterns lately... last January was above normal precip, close to normal temps, and well below normal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 it always seems the models can agree with each other when it's a cutter (xmas eve storm, for instance) but when its a snow bomb they can't agree on anything until the last minute. Hence as some weenies say, rainers always verify Well we just don't notice the differences in a change of track for a rainer. The end result is still rain. So someone in Buffalo may be noticing some huge run-to-run changes if they are on the lookout for snow, but for us, it doesn't matter if its over Detroit, Rochester, Albany...they are all rain tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Well we just don't notice the differences in a change of track for a rainer. The end result is still rain. So someone in Buffalo may be noticing some huge run-to-run changes if they are on the lookout for snow, but for us, it doesn't matter if its over Detroit, Rochester, Albany...they are all rain tracks. hmmmm good point....but it still just seems the models cluster much sooner on a specific rainer track (i.e. thru Buffalo, 7 days ahead) well in advance of clustering on the track of a snowstorm (benchmark, 1 day out)....but like I said I'm just a weener Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Well we just don't notice the differences in a change of track for a rainer. The end result is still rain. So someone in Buffalo may be noticing some huge run-to-run changes if they are on the lookout for snow, but for us, it doesn't matter if its over Detroit, Rochester, Albany...they are all rain tracks. Yeah, when west of us: 300 mile shifts in track = "the models are perfect on a rain track!!!" When the track is 60 miles east of us: 20 mile shifts in track = "the models are AWFUL, they never get it right!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 hmmmm good point....but it still just seems the models cluster much sooner on a specific rainer track (i.e. thru Buffalo, 7 days ahead) well in advance of clustering on the track of a snowstorm (benchmark, 1 day out)....but like I said I'm just a weener It seems that way to me too. Might it have something to do with the Atlantic? Maybe models have a harder time with the ocean....I wonder what the model scores are on cutters vs EC storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Yeah, when west of us: 300 mile shifts in track = "the models are perfect on a rain track!!!" When the track is 60 miles east of us: 20 mile shifts in track = "the models are AWFUL, they never get it right!!" You think it is just perspective? No science? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 It seems that way to me too. Might it have something to do with the Atlantic? Maybe models have a harder time with the ocean....I wonder what the model scores are on cutters vs EC storms. The models seem to have been all over the place with this system so far...from like Chicago to NYC with the track. That doesn't seem all that good, lol. The end result is rain either way. Just like an east coast storm threat, the models also pick up on the idea of a cutter early on, but I doubt the actual low pressure track skill scores would be any better. The models and ensembles get the trough axis figured out pretty early on, so they know its going to cut, but the track wobbles all over the place depending on the strength of the system...just like it does when they move east of us. Just think if you lived in Detroit right now you'd be scratching your head as yesterday it looked like snow, now the low is blowing up over NYC and tracking towards N.NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The models seem to have been all over the place with this system so far...from like Chicago to NYC with the track. That doesn't seem all that good, lol. The end result is rain either way. Just like an east coast storm threat, the models also pick up on the idea of a cutter early on, but I doubt the actual low pressure track skill scores would be any better. The models and ensembles get the trough axis figured out pretty early on, so they know its going to cut, but the track wobbles all over the place depending on the strength of the system...just like it does when they move east of us. Just think if you lived in Detroit right now you'd be scratching your head as yesterday it looked like snow, now the low is blowing up over NYC and tracking towards N.NY. That makes sense. OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The models seem to have been all over the place with this system so far...from like Chicago to NYC with the track. That doesn't seem all that good, lol. The end result is rain either way. Just like an east coast storm threat, the models also pick up on the idea of a cutter early on, but I doubt the actual low pressure track skill scores would be any better. The models and ensembles get the trough axis figured out pretty early on, so they know its going to cut, but the track wobbles all over the place depending on the strength of the system...just like it does when they move east of us. Just think if you lived in Detroit right now you'd be scratching your head as yesterday it looked like snow, now the low is blowing up over NYC and tracking towards N.NY. Nope. You're wrong. Weenies right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Yeah, when west of us: 300 mile shifts in track = "the models are perfect on a rain track!!!" When the track is 60 miles east of us: 20 mile shifts in track = "the models are AWFUL, they never get it right!!" We've been over this several times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I think the models are fairly good with the large scale picture and where a trough axis likely will be...so they can figure out pretty early if a storm is going to go west or east of us. Most times we are looking for snow, we know a short wave is going to push some energy to our east. Likewise, with cutters we know its going west. But for big east coast snows we need a very specific track. For rain it doesn't matter in the least, as long as its west of us. But I still think ask someone in a mid-west city how well modeled our "cutters" are, and I bet they'd have the same opinion we do of east coast storms being fickle. Those folks are probably thinking one day the GFS is over Michigan, the next day its over Wisconsin, then it goes over Buffalo, its all over the place! Where as we are thinking man the GFS nailed that rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 This system though could be a rare beast, breaking up wavelengths and all that. I'm talking your avg system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 We've been over this several times. Oh, you guys proved it? My bad....I'm just stoned, so I'm deep thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 You have to like the odds of one of these next 5 that are modeled will hit pay dirt I like the odds of rain down here. Might as well keep the trend going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I like the odds of rain down here. Might as well keep the trend going.Lol I spent a good part of my sick days reading old threads, you and MPM have to be the biggest Debbies on here. Just relentless. I talked you off the ledge in Jan 11 . All in good fun, are you going to Boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Lol I spent a good part of my sick days reading old threads, you and MPM have to be the biggest Debbies on here. Just relentless. I talked you off the ledge in Jan 11 . All in good fun, are you going to Boston?I think Cory has won DOTY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I think Cory has won DOTY the list is huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I think Cory has won DOTY I would have to go with MPM, Hands down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I would have to go with MPM, Hands downMPM hasn't decided to move to Cali due to not jackpotting.The Debbies outnumber the Weenies this year. Plus SnowmanCory likes to USE ALL CAPs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 MPM hasn't decided to move to Cali due to not jackpotting. The Debbies outnumber the Weenies this year. Plus SnowmanCory likes to USE ALL CAPs MPM has Cory beaten hands-down for relentless debbying...just post after post. Cory is more impressive on a rate basis. He'll do one spectacular one and then not much for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 MPM hasn't decided to move to Cali due to not jackpotting. The Debbies outnumber the Weenies this year. Plus SnowmanCory likes to USE ALL CAPs I'd use all CAPS too if I lived anywhere near Snow-less RI. Maybe this is the year,,nah doubt that. Says the guy moving to FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I'd use all CAPS too if I lived anywhere near Snow-less RI. Maybe this is the year,,nah doubt that. Says the guy moving to FL. pretty sure Cumberland average is close to yours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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