CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Some credit has to go out to Boston TV met David Epstein "I'm leaning away from a blockbuster snowy winter" in a piece he wrote for Boston.com back in late September. That was a real bad reason and made zero sense. Anybody can lean away from a blockbuster winter and be right most of the time. The sample size wasn't terribly great. You are also counting chickens before they hatch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 35/34. -RA. Theme of Dec 2014 has been low/mid 30's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Man the meltdowns in this place are going to be awesome if we don't get any snow within the first two weeks of January. Not saying anyone is on the verge of it, but I can just feel it coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 That was a real bad reason and made zero sense. Anybody can lean away from a blockbuster winter and be right most of the time. The sample size wasn't terribly great. You are also counting chickens before they hatch. You may not agree with Epstein's reasoning but so far his call has been correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 You may not agree with Epstein's reasoning but so far his call has been correct. There are many calls in weather that are correct for incorrect reasoning. KBOS missed out on getting over 2" of rain in Sept by 10 miles. So that is supposed to be a reason to go low? It's the same with the silly October snow myth that has been debunked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 There are many calls in weather that are correct for incorrect reasoning. KBOS missed out on getting over 2" of rain in Sept by 10 miles. So that is supposed to be a reason to go low? It's the same with the silly October snow myth that has been debunked.You can agree or not agree with his methodology, but so far his call has been correct. Certainly his call has been superior to the winter forecast put out by he WBZ weather tem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Man the meltdowns in this place are going to be awesome if we don't get any snow within the first two weeks of January. Not saying anyone is on the verge of it, but I can just feel it coming. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 You can agree or not agree with is methodology, but so far his call has been correct. Certainly his call has been superior to the winter forecast put out by he WBZ weather tem. So if I say that I don't think we are going to have a great winter because the Earth is going to leave it's orbit and fly too close to sun for us to get snow, and then we don't get much snow because of a completely different reason, I'm still right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 So if I say that I don't think we are going to have a great winter because the Earth is going to leave it's orbit and fly too close to sun for us to get snow, and then we don't get much snow because of a completely different reason, I'm still right? Yep! A winner every time!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 So if I say that I don't think we are going to have a great winter because the Earth is going to leave it's orbit and fly too close to sun for us to get snow, and then we don't get much snow because of a completely different reason, I'm still right?Has his call so far been incorrect? Perhaps he has his reasons to prefer using his own methods to determine how winter may play out. There is nothing wrong with him thinking a bit outside of the box. Would you prefer he uses analog years??.....boy those have panned out so far this winter!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 March 2015 may be wet, so I am going to say the winter of 2018-2019 is warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 March 2015 may be wet, so I am going to say the winter of 2018-2019 is warm. To date, in your opinion, who has had the most accurate winter forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 March 2015 may be wet, so I am going to say the winter of 2018-2019 is warm. Don't ruin Mr Tolland's day..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 To date, in your opinion, who has had the most accurate winter forecast? Well it's a winter forecast. You can't grade something that can change very quickly. I mean it's like a football game. Someone says a team will win, someone says they will lose. The person who had the correct call may be alternated several times during a game. In November, a person who called for a snowy winter looked good, in December..the person who called for a BN snowfall winter now looks good. Things change. People don't understand the chaos in weather. You can take the same pattern for all intents and purposes and get different results. I just completely disagree with method he chose. It's a bad sample size overall. You can't take rainfall which is somewhat convective still in Sept and have mesoscale nuances dictate a seasonal pattern. It makes no sense whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Yeah when it comes to science, a sample size of one is probably the best example of being "fooled by randomness" into thinking it was skill. I understand the whole "well even if the reasoning was off, you have to give kudos for getting the call right". Most people are impatient and want immediate success. They don't care about if t is sustainable or not. But if your goal is future success, then you want to understand the reasons involved. I can go gamble $2000 on a blackjack hand right now without doing any research or any card counting. The dealer might deal me an ace and a ten and I win $3000. I won so it was a "great call" to place the bet. Of course, if I kept doing that, I'd live in a cardboard box before too long. Meanwhile, the guy at the table next to me places a bet in a huge count after he has kept track of the cards. He gets dealt a losing hand. He made the "wrong call", right? Well if you based your decision-making on a sample of one, you are correct. However, one person will have future success and the other won't. Same deal in forecasting. Like blackjack, the variance is high in weather. It can take a while to determine forecast skill versus just random variance. When you talk about seasonal forecasting, the best of the best are only about 55-60%. That is the cream of the crop. They will fail over 40% of the time. So you can see how it may take quite a while to really build a statistically significant edge on randomness. And yeah, as Scott said too, be careful about determining success of a winter forecast before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Ha, that's a great analogy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Has his call so far been incorrect? Perhaps he has his reasons to prefer using his own methods to determine how winter may play out. There is nothing wrong with him thinking a bit outside of the box. Would you prefer he uses analog years??.....boy those have panned out so far this winter!!! I agree....some people just can't see the writing on the wall. We're being served dead ratters on a platter and people refuse to look down at their plate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Man the meltdowns in this place are going to be awesome if we don't get any snow within the first two weeks of January. Not saying anyone is on the verge of it, but I can just feel it coming. Given the hype and hoopla going into this winter, if we're largely snowless by 1/15, it will be ugly for sure. (and an amazing stat given the forecasts by many) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 I agree....some people just can't see the writing on the wall. We're being served dead ratters on a platter and people refuse to look down at their plate You should probably quit the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 You should probably quit the forum.certainly some odd behavior judging on such good model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Ahh the typical interior posters. The worst ones to b*tch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 Ahh the typical interior posters. The worst ones to b*tch. Not enough of these for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I agree....some people just can't see the writing on the wall. We're being served dead ratters on a platter and people refuse to look down at their plate I do not believe having a dissenting point of view is bad for the forum. A forum should feature a good amount of lively debate. All the better if the debate is done in a respectful manner. Perhaps a mod or one of his fellow meteorologists here could reach out to David Epstein and invite him to the forum to expound on his reasoning in the Boston.com article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I do not believe having a dissenting point of view is bad for the forum. A forum should feature a good amount of lively debate. All the better if the debate is done in a respectful manner. Perhaps a mod or one of his fellow meteorologists here could reach out to David Epstein and invite him to the forum to expound on his reasoning in the Boston.com article. No, its not a problem, when you provide reasoning to back it up. To be fair, the mets, such as Coastal and Will and skilled hobbyists such as Ginxy and Ray, provide reasons they believe that patterns will evolve in certain directions. If people have a different take on what will happen then provide a basis for your belief. Personally, I am nowhere near skilled enough to make a prediction one way or the other, but I do know that there are some very talented people here who are skilled at forecasting. Are they always correct? No, but because they provide the reasoning behind their conclusions, they can examine them and learn what went wrong. That's the whole idea of having a scientific discussion board, gaining and sharing knowledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Dissenting points of view are actually good for science. But they won't be greeted very warmly when they have no real scientific reasoning behind them. I can't speak for the Epstein prediction because I didn't see it. But if the reasoning was poor, then criticism is justified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 You should probably quit the forum. . I'll keep my venting to myself from now on, I was just teased by that storm in November and its been pretty bad since....maybe we'll see some street flooding damage on Christmas to lift spirits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Dissenting points of view are actually good for science. But they won't be greeted very warmly when they have no real scientific reasoning behind them. I can't speak for the Epstein prediction because I didn't see it. But if the reasoning was poor, then criticism is justified. But why would a well known Met make a prediction that he pulled out of his rear end? It just seems the downfalls are greater than the upside in that case? It doesn't seem worth the risks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 . I'll keep my venting to myself from now on, I was just teased by that storm in November and its been pretty bad since....maybe we'll see some street flooding damage on Christmas to lift spirits? Dude, you got like 8 inches in the November event. Sorry you didn't break Nov 1898's record of 24". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 But why would a well known Met make a prediction that he pulled out of his rear end? It just seems the downfalls are greater than the upside in that case? It doesn't seem worth the risks. Well because when people find some sort of a connection, sometimes they roll with it. It's the same with the October snow myth. It fits BOS in a small sample size, but not ORH. Having that discrepancy over that small of a geographical range, makes the October snow myth garbage. You can't say "oh it works for BOS, but not ORH...but it still works." No no, weather doesn't work like that. That myth was supposed to foretell a bad winter. That means it foretells a bad North American pattern...it can't dictate something as small scale as that, like BOS having a bad winter, but not ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 . I'll keep my venting to myself from now on, I was just teased by that storm in November and its been pretty bad since....maybe we'll see some street flooding damage on Christmas to lift spirits? Just see how ORH and Coastal responded to you. I think your expectations are not in line with what climate is dictating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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