Yanksfan Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 That's way too close for comfort.. Major bust potential in either direction I live in eastern essex county. That snow/sleet line is literally on top of my house! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Earthlight can you say what the hrr is showing at kmu for that time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 The HRRR is ticking warmer each run it seems...pouring rain at 9:00am. http://models.weatherbell.com/hrrr/2014112602/nyc/hrrr_ref_nyc_13.png Snowing by 11 am across the city as per the HRRR . Cools the BL quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I live in eastern essex county. That snow/sleet line is literally on top of my house! I feel like for us there is a 95% chance we won't get more than 2-3", but I feel that if we DO, there's a 5% chance of 6"+. Only because if we end up just north of the rain/snow line, it'll be some heavy stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 The HRRR is ticking warmer each run it seems...pouring rain at 9:00am. http://models.weatherbell.com/hrrr/2014112602/nyc/hrrr_ref_nyc_13.png 2z run has rain/snow line crashing to towards NYC at 11am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 The only area I think the RGEM may be wrong is from 18-21z...despite the fact the 700 low crosses the area I don't know if that would cause the precipitation to change back from a mix or snow to rain in some areas...the RGEM clearly reverts the precip type line NW in this period, the boundary layer would likely not warm during this period with due north winds so I'd still be wary of the RGEM being 3 or so hours too late on the snow changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Still shades of December 2005 here. Perhaps the most noteworthy "good snowstorm Central Park / good rainstorm northern Long Island" in the last 30 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 one thing for sure is tomorrow will be a nightmare if you're traveling...My half inch guess for NYC the other day can still happen...It is still not bad for late November...Thanksgiving 1971 had a snowstorm north and west of the city but the city was mostly rain despite being quite cold the morning of the storm...This time the cold air comes during and after the storm...It can still be an all out snowstorm for the city or mostly rain with some wet flakes at the end...anything less than a measurable snow event would be a bust imo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 GFS is warmer and west...bad for even Newark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 DC area having dew point problems. Not a good sign for the battle ground area up here. If we can't get dews down it doesn't matter how hard it comes down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 i dont see how this one is going to work out for us folks east of the watchungs...Well up to 95/newark has a shot to do fine still, but anywhere in around nyc is in big trouble for this one...its still 50 degrees out, and check out those upper 30s dews surging into south NJ...700mb low track still a big issue on all guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 GFS is warmer and west...bad for even Newark Heavier QPF than 18z however, which means more chance for dynamic cooling. 0c 850 line is basically in the same place at 24 on the 0z GFS versus 30 on the 18z GFS. Splits the city in half, running from TTN to just north of BOS. Such a close call. Going to be a nowcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 RGEM snowfall map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 When comparing the 12z to 00z, its a TAD and I mean a little further west. But much more snow in the spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Upton better update those totals soon...based on current data this system is going to be a major bust for areas south and east of I-95 (at least compared to what folks would be expecting if they trusted the Upton map) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Upton better update those totals soon...based on current data this system is going to be a major bust for areas south and east of I-95 (at least compared to what folks would be expecting if they trusted the Upton map) I agree I'm throwing in the towel for real accumulations here now based on dew trends. I think we still see some mangled parachutes that try and stick but it's not gonna happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Didn't like the trend of the Rgem and gfs! Looks like I will see flakes for the 2nd time this month. That's great for November! Any real accumulation is nw. We will have our shot in December. Pattern reloads by dec 10th. Enjoy the snow nw crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Middlesex county can be a real pain to live in with these kind of systems but at the same time can be kind of cool. Knowing I could drive only 10 miles west and it's a whole new different world will be nice to experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Perhaps the most noteworthy "good snowstorm Central Park / good rainstorm northern Long Island" in the last 30 years. It hurt. Although I did travel into the city that morning so I caught both ends. We had a half inch of snow at the front end and somehow managed to have substantial patches of snow left at the end of the day, but I only remember that as a rainstorm. Also missed out on a great day to our northeast that day. Oh well, it happens and will happen again, including tomorrow. It's all for the best, I need to concentrate on work tomorrow (and tonight). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Sleet is actually the worst case scenario for the coast because it accumulates with marginal surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Upton better update those totals soon...based on current data this system is going to be a major bust for areas south and east of I-95 (at least compared to what folks would be expecting if they trusted the Upton map) Yeah, the hope for 1 inch I had for my backyard is looking doomed even with the models coming in so far. Might just be a wall to wall washout with some sleet pellets and mangled up flakes thrown in. RGEM has less and less frozen precip near the city and the GFS warming up is about all I need. The lack of any appreciable cooling tonight is another nail in the coffin. This just isn't the type of airmass that can salvage a winter event for the coast even with northerly surface winds. Going to be a sucky day to hang out near a coastline tomorrow, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I love watching these textbook cases of mid-latitude cyclogenesis. The shortwave in this case actually seems unusually potent to me, but don't quote me on that. If nothing else, have a blindingly colorful WV loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I agree I'm throwing in the towel for real accumulations here now based on dew trends. I think we still see some mangled parachutes that try and stick but it's not gonna happen When I saw the colder semi-trend from last night 0z reverse this morning, I pretty much knew it was over. We've all lived through enough of these wrong end of the I-95 R/S line events to know that we're in the shaft zone. I'll try to live as vicariously as I can where it's snowing hard and accumulating inland. It's looking more like one of those late 1990s type events which performed much better west of I-95 and particularly I-287. We're probably due for more of these given the last 5 or so winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I can tell that cloud tops are very cool on the satellite imagery and are very high in altitude...a lot of moisture is being hoisted into the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Stuck at 50 still here in Jersey City... getting a little concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I can tell that cloud tops are very cool on the satellite imagery and are very high in altitude...a lot of moisture is being hoisted into the sky. It's going to be a very nice and dynamic event and some people well inland are going to get dumped on good, probably 12"+ in the usual jackpot locations like West Milford and then extending up through the lower Catskills and into the Berkshires. It will probably rain/snow very hard for a 6 or so hour period at least given the amount of juice associated with the system. There's a ton of warm air from the Gulf Stream as well that will be lifted up in the WCB which should produce lots of precip-I think the higher end QPFs of 1.5-2" are a good bet. It's almost sad though seeing a nice WV loop like that and knowing that the puddles on my street tomorrow are getting their act together now in the NE Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 When I saw the colder semi-trend from last night 0z reverse this morning, I pretty much knew it was over. We've all lived through enough of these wrong end of the I-95 R/S line events to know that we're in the shaft zone. I'll try to live as vicariously as I can where it's snowing hard and accumulating inland. It's looking more like one of those late 1990s type events which performed much better west of I-95 and particularly I-287. We're probably due for more of these given the last 5 or so winters. when we have cold air in place and temps aren't an issue, we usually cash in pretty well on coastals being closer to the storm itself with the higher QPF amounts. Like you said, if the conditions aren't perfect it usually doesn't end well for us long islanders Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Dynamic cooling now at 20 hours with the H7 low expanding overhead. The south wind at that level are cutoff from NYC westward and probably in NYC itself. The soundings will almost certainly reveal an isothermal paste job for EWR, MMU, and HPN. NYC and BDR probably taint for a while but the NAM has strong lift that can overcome that. Points east or Southeast of NYC are tainted. did i look at the soundings properly - KJFK has a more favorable thermal profile on the NAM than KBOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Stuck at 50 still here in Jersey City... getting a little concerned. um..no offense, but in jerseycity are you actually expecting any snow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 HRRR getting worse and worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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