Thanksgiving Eve SECS/MECS Discussion II

[ag3]

Think E of the Hudson this wasn`t far far off from what reasonable people expected from 24 hours out . I heard the NE thread came apart last nite .

There were some big time misses up there .

There were big time misses in NJ, CT and New England. CT and NE were the biggests busts.

The NYC area was always borderline between a coating to a slushy inch or even a few inches. In the morning, it was cold enough but bad luck kept the best precip west of EWR. Once the precip filled in, the mid-levels were well beyond warm.

[nzucker]

There were big time misses in NJ, CT and New England. CT and NE were the biggests busts.

Upton was a little too aggressive with this one...Less QPF and more sleet than expected!

 

Light snow falling now in Dobbs Ferry, NY.

[ag3]

Upton was a little too aggressive with this one...Less QPF and more sleet than expected!

Light snow falling now in Dobbs Ferry, NY.

BIt was obvious from the day before that mid-level warming in the 700mb level would kill this event for most people.

Precip didn't really bust at all:

LGA 1.07"

HPN 1.00"

NYC 1.24"

BDR: 1.11"

Models had a consensus of 1"-1.25", so the precip was there. The lift, snow growth and precip in the cold sector (morning) was not.

[ag3]

While DT is 100% right about climo for NYC in November,

yesterday was not really the result of climo. It wasn't really surface temps that were the issue.

It was just bad luck and the position of the 700mb low and where it crossed and eventually closed off. Models had it well south of the eventual correct spot. They caught on only 24 hours before the event.

[PB GFI]

It was obvious from the day before that mid-level warming in the 700mb level would kill this event for most people.

Precip didn't really bust that bad.

LGA reported 1.07"

HPN 1.00"

NYC 1.24"

Models had a consensus of 1"-1.25", so the precip was there. The lift, snow growth and precip in the cold sector (morning) was not.

I think too many have only been around since 2000 and think running the table  is the norm here .

 

Being at 40N on the coast so many ingredients ( hard to take one out of the equation and still  get it done  )  need to be there for us . Guys think its Burlington and not Brooklyn .

 

Spoiled .

[ag3]

I think too many have only been around since 2000 and think running the table is the norm here .

Being at 40N on the coast so many ingredients ( hard to take one out of the equation ) need to be there for us . Guys think its Burlington and not Brooklyn .

Spoiled .

Agreed. But yesterday was more of the result of the position of the 700mb low.

Not really climo.

Surface temps were very cold and well below average.

If the 700mb low traveled south of the area and didn't close off in PA, everyone down to LI would have seen a few inches of snow as we would've avoided the southerly flows in that level.

[DTWXRISK]

 in  fact   the   EXACT  opposite is the   case.  
I am the ONLY  one that talks about   MY busted forecasts  in great detail. 

Over   at   the old eastern wx  forum there are still posts  from  me that go into great detail about what I got wrong  ..
and lessons learned 
 
There are   also  threads like that on my FB   page  in my  note sections. .

 

However, when he is wrong, he never talks about it. BUT will be the first to call someone else out for being wrong.

[PB GFI]

Agreed. But yesterday was more of the result of the position of the 700mb low.

Not really climo.

Surface temps were very cold and well below average.

The air mass in place stunk there was no blocking  so the mid levels didn`t have to torch just warm enough and everyone pinned there hopes on  Dynamic cooling . 

 

I looked at 1.5 liquid - said ok 25 perc snow at 6 to 1 - Gotta get to 3 ?   Didn't happen. Lucky for me no one give a #$% if I miss .

[ag3]

The air mass in place stunk there was no blocking so the mid levels didn`t have to torch just warm enough and everyone pinned there hopes on Dynamic cooling .

I looked at 1.5 liquid - said ok 25 perc snow at 5 to 1 - Gotta get to 3 ? Didn't happen. Lucky for me no one give a #$% if I miss .

The airmass produced 34 degrees in the middle of the day on November 26th in Queens and NYC.

That is a very cold airmass for this date.

This isn't January.

The only issue yesterday was the position of the 700mb low and the eventual warmth to that level due to the southerly flow.

[DTWXRISK]

Dont know if I agree. The reason WHY the 700 mb warm layer   was a factor was  because the   classic   east cast   500 mb / surfaCe  set up did  NOT  exist.  That is when a models  shifted slightly  east it caused  such  a  huge reaction

IF we had the correct 500 MB   set up  the  cold High to the north would of been there  and the warm layer  at 700 mb would be   a non issue .  The  still Mild Ocean  water  temps  were also   important  as  they which kept temps  above 32  for  most of the I-95  cities.

ocean water 

While DT is 100% right about climo for NYC in November,
yesterday was not really the result of climo. It wasn't really surface temps that were the issue.

It was just bad luck and the position of the 700mb low and where it crossed and eventually closed off. Models had it well south of the eventual correct spot. They caught on only 24 hours before the event.

[PB GFI]

The airmass produced 34 degrees in the middle of the day on November 26th in Queens and NYC.

That is a very cold airmass for this date.

This isn't January.

The only issue yesterday was the position of the 700mb low and the eventual warmth to that level due to the southerly flow.

I remember in 12 - Dec storm N shore Long Island  BL 33 850`s Minus 2 - and 925s were like 1 . 1.5 all rain - 20 mile N in CT 15 inches of snow  .

If you live near the water and are a snow buff Dec - March give u ulcers

[ag3]

Dont know if I agree. The reason WHY the 700 mb warm layer was a factor was because the classic east cast 500 mb / surfaCe set up did NOT exist. That is when a models shifted slightly east it caused such a huge reaction

IF we had the correct 500 MB set up the cold High to the north would of been there and the warm layer at 700 mb would be a non issue . The still Mild Ocean water temps were also important as they which kept temps above 32 for most of the I-95 cities.

ocean water

Of course Dave and I'm not arguing with you, but with yesterday we are talking about a small and tiny difference.

If that 700mb low was only 50-100 miles south and did not close off in PA, this would've been a 3"+ snow event down to LI.

Not being able to accumulate snow in NYC because of the bad 700mb low position is a result of climo. But if it ended up a fraction further south, NYC would've seen accumulating snow as well.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I think too many have only been around since 2000 and think running the table is the norm here .

Being at 40N on the coast so many ingredients ( hard to take one out of the equation and still get it done ) need to be there for us . Guys think its Burlington and not Brooklyn .

Spoiled .

That's why I kept throwing around the post Sandy storm. Granted a totally different situation it added to the general consciousness that it snows at the coast in November. Reality is other then the ultimate thread the needle it doesn't .

My personal forecast blew chunks partly because of the above.

Where I am we have mixing issues in pretty much every major storm even in deep winter. Last February blew at times here as it poured while it ripped snow north of the LIE.

Given this exact setup in March when ocean temps are at their lowest we would have pulled off three inches in the morning. But with 700 problem it would have rained regardless of ocean temps

[WintersGrasp]

NO its a lie... and you know it. so blow it out your ass

https://www.facebook.com/notes/wxriskcom/last-call-forecast-and-why-i-busted-in-central-va/496145377099392

So I'll respond to a post that ends in "out your ass" by saying that you had a pretty damn good forecast for this storm, along with Isotherm and blue wave. None of you jumped on the "models still show 5-10" so we'll probably get something like that" bandwagon. That's what separates meteorologists like you from other hobbyists on here. You guys give reasoning for your thinking rather than simply "well how can you go against 5 solid GFS runs in a row??" Or "maybe the NAM is on to something here".....have a happy Thanksgiving everyone

[Sickman]

 in  fact   the   EXACT  opposite is the   case.  

I am the ONLY  one that talks about   MY busted forecasts  in great detail. 

Over   at   the old eastern wx  forum there are still posts  from  me that go into great detail about what I got wrong  ..

and lessons learned 

 

There are   also  threads like that on my FB   page  in my  note sections. .

 

 

I can vouch for this.

[JBG]

Agreed. But yesterday was more of the result of the position of the 700mb low.

Not really climo.

Surface temps were very cold and well below average.

If the 700mb low traveled south of the area and didn't close off in PA, everyone down to LI would have seen a few inches of snow as we would've avoided the southerly flows in that level.

Climo takes all those possibilities into account. Basically a lot has to go right to get a nice storm this early. Wind angle and other positionings have to be perfect.