TwcMan Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 It's going to be a very nice and dynamic event and some people well inland are going to get dumped on good, probably 12"+ in the usual jackpot locations like West Milford and then extending up through the lower Catskills and into the Berkshires. It will probably rain/snow very hard for a 6 or so hour period at least given the amount of juice associated with the system. There's a ton of warm air from the Gulf Stream as well that will be lifted up in the WCB which should produce lots of precip-I think the higher end QPFs of 1.5-2" are a good bet. It's almost sad though seeing a nice WV loop like that and knowing that the puddles on my street tomorrow are getting their act together now in the NE Gulf. I agree. You know what tho dude, even if we see only a few flakes fall, it would be a treat. Would def prefer accumulation tho lol but we have all winter to look forward to that. Places to the north and west are already in the 30's. They will most likely start as all snow or a quick mix at worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 EWR stays mostly if not all snow on the NAM...and it's really ripping here at 21hr 141126025603.gif eh with temps at 700MB barely below 0C im gonna say its a close call, with bad ratios, rims, crusties...etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 49/29. BL is going to be a killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 did i look at the soundings properly - KJFK has a more favorable thermal profile on the NAM than KBOS? I think our situation and Boston's are very much alike-latitude might help them a little more but the warm punch aloft looks a little more serious the further east you go. All in all it looks like one of those "near miss inland" KU events which are great in places like ORH, POU and ABE but are a washout or pelletfest in the megalopolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 49/29. BL is going to be a killer. Lets hope for intense rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I rather have sleet than rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 When I saw the colder semi-trend from last night 0z reverse this morning, I pretty much knew it was over. We've all lived through enough of these wrong end of the I-95 R/S line events to know that we're in the shaft zone. I'll try to live as vicariously as I can where it's snowing hard and accumulating inland. It's looking more like one of those late 1990s type events which performed much better west of I-95 and particularly I-287. We're probably due for more of these given the last 5 or so winters. Could be worse. At least we know it's over now. Growing up close to the bay I can recall several rain snow lines that setup at the southern state. Now that's real torture. Here i think you need to be above 500' and pretty far inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 When I saw the colder semi-trend from last night 0z reverse this morning, I pretty much knew it was over. We've all lived through enough of these wrong end of the I-95 R/S line events to know that we're in the shaft zone. I'll try to live as vicariously as I can where it's snowing hard and accumulating inland. It's looking more like one of those late 1990s type events which performed much better west of I-95 and particularly I-287. We're probably due for more of these given the last 5 or so winters. Look at the setup - south shore.coast people never had a chance, in mid-november. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 HRRR getting worse and worse. Joe Cioffi is saying otherwise: https://m.facebook.com/profile.php?id=174036260386&_rdr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Look at the setup - south shore.coast people never had a chance, in mid-november. Careful with that we got it done post sandy. However I agree if it were January given the exact setup it's 6" dump right to the coast over to sleet and ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Lets hope for intense rates There's something so counterintuitive about straddling 50F twelve hours before a winter storm and banking on dynamic cooling to stave off the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I think our situation and Boston's are very much alike-latitude might help them a little more but the warm punch aloft looks a little more serious the further east you go. All in all it looks like one of those "near miss inland" KU events which are great in places like ORH, POU and ABE but are a washout or pelletfest in the megalopolis. yeah, my money is on majority liquid. Its November in a marginal airmass, that is starting in the 50's....this setup would have a hard time snowing in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Lets hope for intense rates Dewpoints will have to drop much more for us to be able to wetbulb down for heavy snow. It's 49/33 now at JFK. All that will mean is that our rain/sleet mix will be heavier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Careful with that we got it done post sandy. However I agree if it were January given the exact setup it's 6" dump right to the coast over to sleet and ice that storm had all levels way east as compared. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2012/us1107.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Minus a few events, over the last 5 years the interior has pretty much been screwed sniffing verga and cirrus while the coast has jackpotted over and over. They are way over for a pasting ala NW of I95 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Its ticked the heavier totals northwest by a good bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 who said the RGEM was bad? Looks snowier than most models Looks maybe a little cooler than the GFS but otherwise in line with most other guidance I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Looks maybe a little cooler than the GFS but otherwise in line with most other guidance I'd say. its funny, the image that saved was WAY different than the one that appeared on my computer when I viewed the meteocenter website....it must have been last nights 0z run I was looking at. Now that I have seen the updated image, it is far less snowy than any of the last 4 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 According to Joe Cioffi, the HRRR has been on a cooling trend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Euro is a coastal hugger. I guess we just have to look out the window and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Euro is a coastal hugger. I guess we just have to look out the window and see. looks wetter also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 how the EURO look for LHV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 how the EURO look for LHV? Good...at 21 hours, the Euro is still colder than the GFS by quite a bit...it has the 850 freezing line running from about the North Fork of LI to near Atlantic City and off the coast. NYC and Westchester are definitely well below 0C. In that timeframe, Euro shows .5-.75" QPF for the area...the .75" line barely touches far eastern LI so most of us are closer to half inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Good...at 21 hours, the Euro is still colder than the GFS by quite a bit...it has the 850 freezing line running from about the North Fork of LI to near Atlantic City and off the coast. NYC and Westchester are definitely well below 0C. In that timeframe, Euro shows .5-.75" QPF for the area...the .75" line barely touches far eastern LI so most of us are closer to half inch. Warm layer is around 700. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Def one of these events that nzucker whos not that far from me and allgame can get a few more inches then me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Euro is a coastal hugger. I guess we just have to look out the window and see. It ticked slightly west (not that much), but the thermal profiles are very similar. The surface might be a little colder. Still a much colder run than the 0z GFS and keeps the 850 line off the coast for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GooGoo Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 At 21 hrs, T850 may be ok but there is a warm nose at around 700. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Def one of these events that nzucker whos not that far from me and allgame can get a few more inches then me. Being in Bronxville at no elevation is going to suck in this storm. Farther east is a killer in this case...I am glad I have the 350' to help the boundary layer, and I am glad that I am close to the Hudson. Still thinking 3-5" here but could see more if temperatures hold out. What was your seasonal snowfall last year? I think my parents had 74" in Dobbs Ferry. I lived in southern Brooklyn and measured 58" in Bay Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 68" Dont go off my sig. Havent upgraded it in forever. Im always on mobile. Its gunna be really close here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Warm layer is around 700. This storm is a really tough call for the big cities and especially just north west. Meteorologists in BOS are having a similar problem. I think it's hard to expect more than 1-3" in NYC but could be a steep gradient depending on banding (which is mostly due to the track of the H7 and H85 lows) and also boundary layer conditions. Dewpoints are in the upper 20s across most of the region, but temperatures are hanging in the mid 40s due to light west winds. Really don't know if that gradient will be over NYC, in Westchester, up by the Putnam border/Taconic. Who really knows? But you could easily go from 1" at JFK to 8" in White Plains. No question about that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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