earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I mean, the differences for a 14 hour forecast....it isn't even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Earthlight, is the cooling at 700mb on the 00z NAM just noise at this point, or can it have implications moving forward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Out of scotch plains, eh? Not for snowstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 This run is so much colder at 700mb. It's even much colder than the old 12z run. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Newark is almost -7 at 700mb at 16 hours...they were +1.5 at the same time on the 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Earthlight, is the cooling at 700mb on the 00z NAM just noise at this point, or can it have implications moving forward? It's a major, major difference. It's as if it's modeling a different storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Here comes the southerly jet at 700mb around 18z Wednesday...but it's going to be nothing remotely close to as strong as the 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ordr Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Down to 39F in Norwalk, 15 minutes since I posted 39.6F. Sky conditions are still partly cloudy. 39F was the predicted low tonight; 45 was the predicted temperature for right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 hr 17 700mb 0 line runs along 195 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 The warm layer is through Long Island by 18z..and straddling NYC...but not at 700mb...now it's at 925mb. There are multiple warm layers and this is a really crappy thermal profile east of the city still. But this run is way better for anyone west of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Here comes the southerly jet at 700mb around 18z Wednesday...but it's going to be nothing remotely close to as strong as the 18z run yep pushing into the city and costal sections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 700mb 0c line running along I-95 into NYC. Newark still safe and probably isothermal at 19-20 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 H7 low is closed off near Baltimore...pretty bad location for everybody in this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Dynamic cooling now at 20 hours with the H7 low expanding overhead. The south wind at that level are cutoff from NYC westward and probably in NYC itself. The soundings will almost certainly reveal an isothermal paste job for EWR, MMU, and HPN. NYC and BDR probably taint for a while but the NAM has strong lift that can overcome that. Points east or Southeast of NYC are tainted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 700mb 0C line parallels the immediate south shore of LI from due west to east, but then orients itself along I-95 in NJ. So strange that it went from SW to NE in NJ, then due west to east on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 hr 20 and 21 is close for nyc and western suburbs…nw areas are plenty cold this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 How's precip look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 hr 20 and 21 is close for nyc and western suburbs…nw areas are plenty cold this run How close is "western suburbs" That means diff locations for people. Can you give a town or couple towns thats close to that cutoff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 East of NYC fully tainted at 21 hours, which is to be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 How's precip look? 1.00 line back to the pa/nj boarder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 How close is "western suburbs" That means diff locations for people. Can you give a town or couple towns thats close to that cutoff? soundings for my area of northern morris are fine through hr 21, waiting for hr 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 How close is "western suburbs" That means diff locations for people. Can you give a town or couple towns thats close to that cutoff? Literally 20 miles west of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Dynamic cooling now at 20 hours with the H7 low expanding overhead. The south wind at that level are cutoff from NYC westward and probably in NYC itself. The soundings will almost certainly reveal an isothermal paste job for EWR, MMU, and HPN. NYC and BDR probably taint for a while but the NAM has strong lift that can overcome that. Points east or Southeast of NYC are tainted. Thanks for including BDR. Looks like the 18z models could have *potentially* overdone the warmth trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 soundings for my area of northern morris are fine through hr 21, waiting for hr 24 that area in nj has no issues on this run of the 00z nam... its very close for the urban areas of north eastern nj and nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 The warm layer is through Long Island by 18z..and straddling NYC...but not at 700mb...now it's at 925mb. There are multiple warm layers and this is a really crappy thermal profile east of the city still. But this run is way better for anyone west of there. That sounds allot more realistic . Not sure where the nam got the crack it was smoking before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 that area in nj has no issues on this run of the 00z nam... its very close for the urban areas of north eastern nj and nyc Yeah I think once you head into western essex/union/Bergen it's usually safer. Where I am just 13 miles due west of NYC, there's usually not a big difference. I'm expecting similar to their weather. A 25 minute drive west from here it's a different story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 that area in nj has no issues on this run of the 00z nam... its very close for the urban areas of north eastern nj and nyc yea hr 24 temps cool above even more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 What a snow bomb that run was....850 was significantly further s/e as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 All the radiational cooling in the world isn't going to make any difference along the coastal plain once the wind resumes blowing... im not so sure that wind direction is going to hurt the coastal plain so much here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 How's the NAM for ttn/mercer? mixing/rain issues from hr 18-22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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